The currencies seem to show some stability today. The Dollar Index may trade within 102-103.50 region for some time while Euro is falling towards the lower end of its 1.10-1.0850/1.08 range and needs a break above 1.10 to turn further bullish in the medium term. USDCNY is back within its old range of 7.18-7.20. EURJPY and USDJPY could soon test 162 and 148 respectively. Aussie is holding above 0.66 and could move up to 0.67 while above 0.6550. Pound could soon test our mentioned target of 1.2750 before attempting to move up past 1.29. EURINR may continue to trade within 91-89 region for the near term. USDINR could trade within 82.60-82.90, attempting to test the upper end of the range.

Dollar Index (102.916) tested 103.17 after the US CPI release that came at 3.17% (Headline CPI, Y/Y%), slightly higher than 3.11% seen in the earlier month. Immediate range for the index could be 102-103.50

EURUSD (1.0926) is gradually coming down towards the lower end of its previously expected range of 1.10-1.08 and it may persist for a while unless a break can be seen on the either side of the range. Bias remains to see an eventual break past 1.10 in the medium term.

EURJPY (161.01) and Dollar-Yen (147.35) are rising well as anticipated and could test our mentioned targets of 162 and 148 respectively in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1878) halted its fall at 7.17 itself and the pair is currently back within its old range of 7.18-7.20. A decisive break on either side of the range will be needed for the further clarity in the view. Until then, range is expected to hold in the near term.

Aussie (0.6610) fell to a low of 0.6584 before recovering back from there. As mentioned earlier, downside is likely to be limited to 0.6550/0.6530 with an eventual rise towards 0.67/68 in the medium term.

Pound (1.2794) is gradually coming down towards our expected level of 1.2750/1.2700. Thereafter, it could attempt to rise back towards 1.29/30 in the medium term.

USDINR (82.7725) may trade within the range of 82.60/65-82.90 in the near term, attempting to test the upper end of the range soon.

EURINR (90.4703) continues to trade below its immediate resistance of 91 and while below it, the pair would continue to trade within 91-89 region for a while.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. A further strong rise from here can bring back the bullishness and will take yield higher. We will have to wait and watch. The US Headline CPI inched up slightly to 3.17% (YoY) in February from 3.11% in January. But the Core CPI continues to cool down. It came in at 3.76% down from 3.87% for the same period. The German yields continue to move up and are likely to rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has bounced slightly but has resistances ahead that can cap the upside and keep it under pressure to fall further. The 5Yr GoI hovers above its key supports and can fall further if it breaks below that support.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and the 30Yr (4.31%) yields continue to move up. As mentioned yesterday a rise above 4.2% can take the 10Yr will bring back the chances of seeing 4.4% on the upside. The 30Yr can rise to 4.6% on a strong rise past 4.35%. That in turn will negate the fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.15% (30Yr) mentioned yesterday.

The German 10Yr (2.33%) and the 30Yr (2.47%) yields have risen further. The view remains bullish to see a rise to back 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr) while the yield stays above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0274%) has bounced after testing 7%. Immediate resistance is at 7.04%-7.05%. The broader view is bearish to break 7% and fall to 6.95%-6.9% and even 6.8%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0259%) remained stable. Resistance is at 7.04% while below which 7% can be tested. A break below 7% is needed to drag it down to 6.9%.

Dow Jones has risen and closed just above 39000 and while this break sustains, a further rise can be seen in the coming sessions. Strong rally was seen in DAX but we need to careful for any fall back from 18000-18200. Nifty closed on a mixed not yesterday but the support at 22200-22000 is expected to hold and produce a bounce back to our expected level. Nikkei is holding well above the support at 38000 as expected. Shanghai has declined, failing to break above its key resistance and may come down further in the near term.

Dow (39005.49, +0.61%) has risen and closed just above 39000. While this sustains, a rise to 39500 and higher levels can be seen. That will negate our bearish view of seeing a fall to 38200-38000.

DAX (17965.11, +1.23%) is heading up towards 18000-18200 in line with our expectation. The price action thereafter will need a close watch for a reversal.

Nifty (22335.70, +0.01%) has closed on a mixed note. 22200-22000 is a good support while above which a rise to 22800 or even 23000 can happen first before a corrective fall happens.

Nikkei (38534.50, -0.70%) is holding well above the support at 38000. While above 38000-37500, there can be scope for a rise towards 40000.

Shanghai (3041.65, -0.47%) has fallen back after testing a high of 3075.13. If it stays below 3065, a fall towards 3000-2950 is possible. Only a decisive break above 3065 is needed to rise towards 3200.

Crude prices to remain range bound for a while. As warned, Gold and Silver came off from 2200 and 25 respectively as US CPI came out higher at 3.17% than the previous release of 3.11%. Copper has scope to see a break on the upper side of its range. Natural Gas can fall towards 1.5 before a bounce back can happen.

Brent ($ 82.34) remains mixed. The sideways range of $ 85-80 can continue to hold for the near term.

WTI ($ 77.97) looks mixed. We expect it to trade sideways within $ 81-75 range for some time.

Gold (2166.60) has come down towards 2160. It may break below 2160-2150 and fall towards 2120-2100 while below 2200.

Silver (24.32) has declined below 24.50 after facing rejections near 25. A dip towards 24-23.50 can be seen while it remains below 25.

Copper (3.9215) is hovering below 3.95. The 3.88-3.95 range remains intact. Bias remains positive for a break on the upside and rise towards 4.00 or even higher towards 4.20.

Natural Gas (1.7110) is drifting lower towards 1.70. It may fall further towards 1.5. Thereafter a bounce back towards 1.8-2.0 can be seen again. Overall a broad range of 1.5-2.0 can hold for some time.

7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -13.5 …Expected -15.0 …Previous -14.0

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.0% …Expected -0.2% …Previous 2.6%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
Expn 3.3% …Expected 3.8% …Previous 3.8% …Actual 3.9%

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 2.9% …Expected 4.1% …Previous 4.2% …Actual 3.8%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 5.33% …Expected 5.02% …Previous 5.10% …Actual 5.09%

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.4%

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.4%