The Dollar Index could bounce back towards 103.50 if the interim support holds around the current levels while Euro below 1.10 looks bearish towards 1.08 in the near term. USDCNY is rising towards the upper end of its 7.18-7.20 range which can hold for the near term. EURJPY and USDJPY tested our targets of 162 and 148 respectively before slipping down from there. Aussie above 0.66, could move up to 0.67/68 in the medium term. Pound remained stable and now if it sustains above the current levels, can attempt to test 1.29 on the upside soon. EURINR may continue to trade within 91-89 region for the near term. USDINR tested the upper end of its 82.60-82.90 range as expected and could continue to trade within it for a while.

Dollar Index (102.82) has an interim support around current levels which if holds can take it higher towards 103.50 or 104 in the near term. Note that 103.50 is an immediate resistance. Narrow range of 102.70-103.50 and broader range of 102-104 can hold for the near term.

EURUSD (1.0945) has been trading within the narrow region of 1.10-1.09 for the last couple of sessions. While below 1.10, overall view remains biased to see a fall towards 1.0850-1.08 before it rises back stronger in the medium term. A wide range of 1.10-1.08 may persist for a couple of weeks.

EURJPY (161.76) tested 161.95 and Dollar-Yen (147.80) tested 148.04 yesterday in line with our expectations. A decisive break past these targets can take them higher towards 163/164 and 149/150 in the near term else the pair can get dragged towards 160 and 146 respectively if the prices fall from current levels immediately. Looking at the price momentum, the bulls could dominate for a few more sessions.

USDCNY (7.1920) has risen sharply towards the upper end of its range of 7.18-7.20, but until a decisive break can be seen on the either side of the range, the view continues to remain uncertain in the near term.

Aussie (0.6621) looks stable above 0.66 for now and while above it, a potential rise towards 0.67/68 cold be seen in the medium term. Note only a break below 0.66 could make the outlook further bearish towards 0.655 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.2797) had remained flat yesterday, contrary to our expectations of it coming down towards 1.2750/1.2700. The pair is currently trading in between the 1.29-1.27 zone and could move either ways in the very near term. While above 1.2750, there could be scope for an initial rise towards 1.29 before coming down from there in the medium term.

USDINR (82.8675) extended its rise towards the upper end of the 82.60/65-82.90 range as expected. Overall the range may persist for a while before it eventually rises towards 83 and higher going into April’24.

EURINR (90.6863) continues to trade within 91-89 region which is expected to hold for some more sessions.

The US Treasury yields have come up to their intermediate resistance. The price action in the next few days will need a close watch. A break above this resistance can take the yields further higher in the coming days before the broader downtrend resumes. The German yields continue to move up and has room to rise further. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have immediate resistance ahead. A break above it can take them further higher. The broader trend is down and so the upside is likely to be capped.

The US 10Yr (4.19%) and the 30Yr (4.34%) yields have come closer to their crucial levels of 4.2% and 4.35% respectively. A break above these levels can see an extended rise to 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). Thereafter the broader downtrend is likely to resume.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.52%) yields continue to move up. The bullish view is intact to see 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr) on the upside. 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr) are important supports.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0405%) has moved into the 7.04%-7.05% resistance zone. A break above 7.05% can see an extended rise to 7.08%-7.1%. But while below 7.1%, the broader bearish view of seeing 6.95%-6.9% and 6.8% will remain intact.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0346%) is inching up towards the resistance at 7.04%. A reversal from there can take it down to 7%. But a break above 7.04% can take it up to 7.06%-7.07% and even 7.1%. We will have to wait and watch.

Dow Jones has come off after facing rejections at 39200. It needs to sustain above 39000 to move up further in the near term and to reduce the danger of falling back towards 38500. DAX has dipped slightly but has scope to rise towards 18200-18500 on a break above 18000. Nifty has declined sharply, breaking below it support yesterday and may come down further if the break sustains. Nikkei has scope to rise while it remains above 38000-37500. Shanghai can fall while below the resistance at 3065.

Dow (39043.32, +0.10%) has come-off from the high of 39201. A sustained rise above 39000 is needed to see 39500 and higher levels. A fall below 39000 and a subsequent break below 38800 will bring back the bearishness of seeing 38500 and lower levels. It is a wait and watch.

DAX (17961.38, -0.02%) remains higher but stable. A test of 18200-18500 is possible on a break above 18000. Thereafter the price action will have to be watched for a reversal.

Nifty (21997.70, -1.51%) has declined sharply yesterday. A further fall from here can drag it down to 21500. That will negate the rise to 22800-23000 that we have been expecting.

Nikkei (38703.50, +0.04%) lacks follow through rise above 39000 but as long as it holds above 38000-37500, there can be scope for a rise towards 40000.

Shanghai (3046.51, +0.09%) is hovering below 3065. A fall towards 3000-2950 cannot be ruled out while it remains below 3065.

Crude prices have risen sharply but could face resistance ahead which may hold and produce a fall back again. Gold to remain sideways within 2150-2200 for a while before a break on the uspide can be seen. Silver and Copper have risen sharply and have room to move up further in the near term. Natural Gas can fall towards 1.5 before a bounce back can happen.

Brent ($ 84.10) has risen sharply above $ 84. Key resistance is at $ 85. While that holds, the sideways range of $ 85-80 may continue to hold for some more time.

WTI ($ 79.80) has moved up sharply towards $ 80 but could face resistance near $ 82-83. While that holds, a fall back towards $ 78-76 can be seen again. For now, the $ 81-75 range remains intact.

Gold (2179) has bounced back as it is getting good support around 2160-2150 contrary to our view to see a break below it and fall towards 2120-2100. It may remain ranged within 2150-2200 for a while before moving up towards 2230-2250.

Silver (25.31) has risen back sharply above 25 contrary to our view for a fall towards 24-23.50. While above 25, a further rise towards 25.50-26.00 or even 26.30 looks likely. Thereafter a fall might be seen towards 25.50.

Copper (4.07) has surged towards 4.1, breaking above 3.95 in line with expectations. A further rise towards 4.20-4.30 looks possible.

Natural Gas (1.66) continues to fall and looks likely to come down towards 1.5. Thereafter a bounce back can happen towards 1.8-2.0. Overall a broad range of 1.5-2.0 can hold for some time.

6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn 0.25% …Expected 0.25% …Previous 0.27%

12:30 18:00 US PPI
Expn 0.0% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.8 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.5

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn -0.6% …Expected – …Previous -1.1%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
7:00 12:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -13.5 …Expected -15.0 …Previous -14.0 …Actual -14.5

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 0.0% …Expected -0.2% …Previous 1.6% …Actual -3.2