The US Dollar faced selling pressure near 106.50 while the Euro has managed to bounce from 1.06 and could rise to 1.07/0750. EURJPY could trade within 165-162 region while USDJPY needs to hold above 154 else can decline towards 153/152 soon. Aussie and Pound have managed to bounce from 0.64 and 1.24 but there could be some more room for a fall towards supports at 0.63 and 1.23/22 in the medium term. USDCNY may fall towards 7.22 while below 7.24. EURINR could rise towards the upper end of the 88-90 range. In USDINR, it would be crucial to watch price action near 83.50/55. A make or break from this level will drive the next course of action on the pair.

Dollar Index (105.864) declined from 106.50 itself, contrary to our mentioned resistance near 107.50. While below 106, a dip to 105 looks likely before again attempting to rise back towards 106+.

EURUSD (1.0674) has bounced back from support at 1.06 and while the rise sustains, a test of 1.07/1.0750 looks likely.

EURJPY (164.47) has risen to test the upper end of the 162-165 range. Watch price action to see if it holds below 165 or manages to break higher to test 166. Note that 165/166 is a crucial resistance zone.

Dollar-Yen (154.10) rose to 154.78, slightly lower than our mentioned target of 155 before declining from there. Now, the pair needs to sustain above 154 and rise past 155 to test 156-157 on the upside, else it could get dragged towards 152 in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.2335) tested 7.24 as expected before coming down. We expect the pair to decline further towards 7.22 in the near term. For now, a range of 7.24-7.22 may hold for sometime.

Aussie (0.6452) has risen back well above 0.64. It could rise to 0.65/6550 before falling back towards 0.64/63. Note that 0.63 is a crucial support on the weekly charts which has a fair chance of being tested in the medium term while below 0.6550/6500.

Pound (1.2467) has managed to bounce from 1.24 but there is some more room for a fall towards 1.23/22 while below 1.26 in the medium term. Immediate rise could be limited to 1.26 on the upside.

USDINR (83.54) showed 83.7190 on the NDF markets while the OTC was closed due to Ram Navami. However, in the onshore markets today, the USDINR will have to show a decisive break above 83.55 to rise towards 83.70/80 else while below 83.55, if RBI intervenes, we may expect a range of 83.55-83.30 to remain intact for the near term. Watch price action near 83.50/55.

EURINR (89.1947) has scope to rise to 90 while above 88/88.50 before declining back towards 88.50 or lower. A medium-term range of 88-90 could hold for some time.

The US Treasury yields remain stable and higher. A strong follow-through rise from here will avoid a fall-back and take the yields higher going forward. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields are poised at the upper end of their range. Need to wait and see if they are making a bullish breakout and rise further from here or reversing lower to keep the range intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains bullish and have room to rise further from here.

The US 10Yr (4.59%) and the 30Yr (4.70%) yields remain stable. View remains the same. The 10Yr can rise to 4.75%-4.8% on a break above 4.6%. Failure to breach 4.6% can take it down to 4.4%. Wait and watch. The 30Yr can touch 4.8% from here. The price action thereafter will need a watch.

The German 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (2.60%) yields have inched up. The 10Yr has moved just above its 2.2%-2.45% range. While the 30Yr is at the range top (2.4%-2.6%). Need to see if the yields are getting a strong breakout and a follow-through rise from here to see 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.75%-2.8% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1860%) tested 7.2% as expected and has come-off from there. View remains bullish to break 7.2% and rise to 7.3%. But intermediate dips are possible. Immediate supports at 7.16% and 7.14%. Deeper support is at 7.1%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1931%) continues to move up. The bullish view is intact to see 7.3% and even 7.4% on the upside. Support is in the 7.12%-7.10% region.

Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei have room to fall further in the near term. Shanghai has scope to see a break on the upside of its sideways range. Nifty is coming down towards its supports. Need to see if that holds and produces a bounce back or not.

Dow (37753.31, -0.12%) has been struggling to rise past 38000 over the last couple of days. That keeps the bearish view intact for a fall to 37200-37000.

DAX (17770.02, +0.02%) has declined sharply below 18000. It can fall to 17400 while below 18000 now.

Nifty (22147.90) is coming closer to 22000. Need to see if it is getting a bounce-back from here which can take it back up to 22500 and higher. A break below 22000 will be bearish to see 21500-21300.

Nikkei (37779.63, -0.48%) has declined further below 38000. It may fall further towards 37000 or even lower to 36000 while below 39000.

Shanghai (3090.80, +0.63%) has risen towards the upper end of the 3000-3100 range. It may break on the upside and rise towards 3150-3200 in the coming days.

Crude prices have fallen sharply after Wednesday’s weekly EIA report showed that crude inventories have risen more than expected. Gold, Silver and Copper have dipped but have near term supports which may hold and lead to a rise towards our expected level. Natural Gas can trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while.

Brent ($ 87.46) has fallen sharply breaking below the lower end of the $ 92.50-88 range. A test of $ 86-85 looks possible before a bounce back could be seen towards $ 89-90.

WTI ($ 82.79) has broken sharply below the lower end of the $ 88-84 range. While below $ 84, it may dip to $ 80 before a bounce can happen towards $ 83-84.

Gold (2382.30) lacks a follow through rise above 2400. Support is at 2350. While that holds, a rise towards 2450-2500 is still possible.

Silver (28.38) has fallen back after facing rejections from 29. Immediate support is at 27.80-27.50,while above which, there could be chances of rise towards 30.00.

Copper (4.3465) is oscillating within 4.25-4.40. Immediate support is at 4.30-4.27. While that holds, chances of rise towards 4.45-4.50 will remain intact.

Natural Gas (1.7390) bounced back after testing 1.6490 contrary to our view for a fall towards 1.6-1.5. It can trade sideways within 1.5-2.00 range for the near term.

1:30 07:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 7.2K …Previous 116.5K

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected 0.8 …Previous 3.2

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 4160K …Expected 4200K …Previous 4380K

Data Yesterday
…………
6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 3.9% …Expected 3.1% …Previous 3.4% …Actual 3.2%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.2% …Expected 2.4% …Previous 2.6% …Actual 2.4%

20:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected 40.2B …Previous 14.0B …Actual 71.5B