The Dollar Index, EURUSD, and EURJPY appear to range between 106.50-105.50, 1.06-1.07 and 162-165 respectively, while USDJPY could soon test our mentioned targets of 155-156. Aussie above 0.64 can rise further towards 0.65-0.655 and Pound needs to sustain above 1.23 to test 1.24/25 on the upside. USDCNY is slowly rising towards 7.25. EURINR may remain ranged within the 88.50-90 region. In USDINR, we need to be cautious around current levels as support can be spotted around 83.30 which if held, can take it higher towards 83.50.

Dollar Index (106.074) continues to trade within its immediate range of 106.50-105.50 mentioned yesterday. Unless it necessarily rises past 106.5 to turn bullish for the medium term, there is a greater chance of it getting dragged toward 105 on the downside.

EURUSD (1.0659) has been gradually rising towards 1.07 as expected. Upon testing, a break above 1.07 is needed to turn further bullish, or else the immediate range of 1.06-1.07 may hold for a while.

EURJPY (164.94) tested the upper end if its 162-165 range, but finds difficulty in breaking past 165. Unless that happens, we expect the current range to persist for a while. A break past 165 can take it higher to test another resistance at 166 in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (154.72) is slowly inching up as expected and could soon test our mentioned targets of 155-156 from where a medium-term fall towards 152 can be seen.

USDCNY (7.2439) has been inching up slowly as we retain our bullish view towards 7.25.

Aussie (0.6462) has risen well in the last 2-sessions and while above 0.64, it has the scope to further extend its rise towards 0.65-0.655 in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.2356) made a low of 1.2299, testing the important weekly support on the charts before it recovered to current levels. While above support at 1.23, the Pound may turn bullish from here towards 1.24/25 and higher eventually. Watch price action near 1.23 closely.

USDINR (83.3675) has been holding well below 83.55/50. Immediate support is seen near 83.30 which if holds can produce a bounce back towards 83.40/50 keeping a range of 83.50-83.30 for the near term. Only a decisive break below 83.30 would take it down to 83.20/83.10.

EURINR (88.8390) is likely to head towards 89.50-90 while above 88.50.


The US Treasury and the German yields seem to be lacking strength to move up. They need a strong follow-through rise from here to move higher. Else, the Treasury yields can fall to test their support and the German yields can fall-back into their earlier range. We will have to wait and watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the overall uptrend intact.

The US 10Yr (4.61%) and the 30Yr (4.72%) yields have dipped slightly. The 10Yr has to sustain above 4.6% to move up to 4.75%-4.8%. Else it can come down to 4.45%. Similarly, the 30Yr has to remain above 4.7% to see 4.8% and higher. Else it can fall to 4.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.48%) and the 30Yr (2.62%) yields remain higher and stable. The yields will need a strong follow-through rise from here to rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.75%-2.8% (30Yr). Else they can fall back into the 2.2%-2.45% (10Yr) and (2.4%-2.6%) range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1890%) has dipped below 7.2% but may get support in the 7.18%-7.15% region. The trend is up and the yield is likely to move back up to 7.3%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1878%) has come down sharply. But supports are at 7.18% and then at 7.12%-7.10%. While above 7.1%, the view is bullish to see 7.3% and 7.4% on the upside.


Dow Jones has risen above the resistance at 38100 and can rise further if the break sustains. DAX looks range bound between 17600-18000 but outlook will remain bearish while below 18000. Nifty can rise too taking cues from Dow Jones. It has to rise above 22500 to become bullish towards 23000. Nikkei is trying to bounce but has to surpass the resistance overhead to become bullish, else it would remain vulnerable for the near term. Shanghai can remain ranged within 3100-3000 for a while.

Dow (38239.98, +0.67%) has risen above 38100. While this sustains, a further rise to 38700 is possible. That in turn will reduce the danger of the fall to 37200-37000 that we have been expecting.

DAX (17860.80, +0.70%) is range bound between 17600 and 18000 over the last few days. While below 18000, we retain the view of seeing the fall to 17400.

Nifty (22336.40, +0.86%) has risen. But as mentioned yesterday, a rise above 22500 is needed to become bullish again for 23000. Else, the danger of the fall to 21500-21300 will remain alive.

Nikkei (37531.50, +0.25%) is coming off from a high of 37818. It has to rise past 38000 to become bullish towards 39000. Else a fall towards 36600-36000 cannot be ruled out.

Shanghai (3027.31, -0.57%) has fallen within the 3100-3000 range. As long as it holds above 3000-2950, chance are there that it may break above 3100 and rise towards 3150-3200.


Crude prices look mixed and might trade sideways for a while. Gold, Silver and Copper have fallen sharply and might dip towards their near term supports. Natural Gas to trade sideways within 1.50-2.00 for a while.

Brent ($ 87.32) has bounced back from $ 85.79. Support is at $ 85. While that holds, we can expect Brent to trade sideways within $ 85-90 for a while.

WTI ($ 82.22) bounced from $ 80.73. Resistance is at $ 84. While that holds, we can expect a range of $ 84-80 to persist for some time. The chances of fall towards $ 80-78 cannot be ruled out while it remains below $ 84.

Gold (2324.20) has fallen sharply below 2350. This has negated the chances of rise towards 2500-2520 that we have mentioned yesterday. It may fall towards 2270-2250.

Silver (27.06) has tumbled below 27.50. A test of 26.50-26.30 looks possible before a bounce back can happen towards 28.

Copper (4.4540) has fallen back after testing 4.5505. We had expected a rise to 4.58-4.60 and then a fall from there. It can fall to 4.37-4.35 and then bounce towards 4.45.

Natural Gas (1.7910) has risen towards 1.8 and may rise further towards 1.9. A broad sideways range of 1.50-2.00 is expected to hold for the near term.


8:00 13:30 EU Flash PMI
Expn – …Expected 46.5 …Previous 46.1

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 664K …Expected 668K …Previous 662K

Data Yesterday
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