The Dollar Index and Euro are headed to 105.50/106 and 1.07 respectively. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise towards 156/157 and 168 respectively. USDCNY has sustained well above 7.22 and can further test 7.23-7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie can fall to 0.65 if it does not see an immediate rise from current levels while Pound has broken below 1.25 and could be headed towards 1.24/2350 before bottoming out in the near term. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while USDINR can continue trade within 83.57/55-83.40/30.

Dollar Index (105.547) and EURUSD (1.0741) both are moving in line with our expectations and can test 105.50-106 and 1.07 respectively in the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (155.18) and EURJPY (166.67) are rising well as expected and can get extended to 156-157 and 168 respectively in the near term. While the pairs hold above their respective supports of 152 and 164, the overall view is bullish.

USDCNY (7.2239) is rising towards 7.23 and while above 7.22, we may negate earlier doubts of testing 7.20/18 on the downside. A test of 7.23/24 looks possible in the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.6574) tested 0.6644 yesterday, slightly below our expected target of 0.6650 before the pair came down significantly from there. A support can be spotted around current levels which if held can take it back towards 0.6650 on the upside. Else a sharp decline towards 0.65 is possible.

Pound (1.2488) has dipped below our mentioned range of 1.25-1.2650 and can get dragged towards 1.24-1.235 in the coming sessions before possibly bottoming out.

USDINR (83.5125) continues to trade higher within its range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 and can persist for some time unless a decisive break can be seen on either side of it.

EURINR (89.6875) has fallen as expected and could be headed towards 89.50-89.20 as mentioned yesterday.


The US Treasury yields have dipped further. There is room to fall more from here to test their supports and then a reversal is possible. The German yields on the other hand have come close to their support. We expect the support to hold, and the yields can rise going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI bounced back yesterday. They will need a strong follow-through rise from here to avoid the extended fall and resume the uptrend from here itself. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.47%) and the 30Yr (4.61%) yields have dipped further. The 10Yr is sustaining below 4.5% and can head down towards 4.4%-4.35%. The 30Yr can extend the fall to 4.5% on a break below 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.42%) and the 30Yr (2.54%) yields have come close to 2.4% and 2.5% support respectively. While these supports hold, the yields can rise back to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1284%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1156%) have bounced back. Need to see if they are getting a strong follow-through rise from here and avoid the extended fall to 7% as was mentioned yesterday. In that case the rise to 7.3% (10Yr) and 7.3%-7.4% (5Yr) can happen from here itself.


Dow Jones has scope to rise towards 39200-39500. Thereafter we need to see if any fall back happens or not. Strong rise is seen in Dax yesterday and can extend the rise further towards its immediate resistance. Nifty has fallen sharply but might get support at 22200-22000. Nikkei has fallen as the resistance at 39000 is holding well and might fall further from here. Shanghai can rise towards its key resistance at 3200 before a corrective fall can happen.

Dow (38884.26, +0.08%) is inching up gradually. While above 38,500 our view of seeing 39200-39500 on the upside remains intact. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.

DAX (18430.05, +1.4%) has surged breaching 18259. It can test 18600 – the next key resistance. If that is also broken, then 19100-19200 can be seen on the upside.

Nifty (22302.50, -0.62%) touched a low of 22232 and has bounced slightly. While below 22500, Nifty will remain vulnerable to break 22200 and extend the fall to 22000. We repeat that 22200-22800 (narrow) or 22000-23000 (broad) is the trading range for now.

Nikkei (38252.50, -1.41%) has fallen back sharply below 38500 as the resistance at 39000 seems to be holding well. Can dip towards 38000-37000. Overall a range of 39000-37000 can hold for a while.

Shanghai (3141.35, -0.2%) lacks strength to rise past 3150. Support is at 3100. While that holds, a test of key resistance at 3200 looks likely in the near term. Thereafter a corrective fall might be seen towards 3000.


Crude prices remains subdued but have managed to sustain above their support level. Need to see if the support holds and produces a bounce back or not. Gold is vulnerable to a fall while below 2350-2400. Silver and Copper have fallen back but downside could be limited to 27.00-26.30 and 4.50/4.47 respectively. Natural Gas looks bullish for the near term.

Brent ($ 82.81) has managed to hold above $ 82. Can remain ranged within $ 82-85 for a while before a rise can be seen towards $ 87-88. In case it happens to break below $ 82, a further dip towards $ 80-75 could be seen, chances of which cannot be ruled out.

WTI ($ 78.08) hovers above the support at $ 78.00-77.50. While $ 77.50 holds, a corrective rise towards $ 81-82 is possible. A break lower, if seen, can drag it down towards $ 75-70.

Gold (2316.20) looks ranged between 2350-2300. Chances of fall towards 2250-2200 cannot be ruled out while below 2350-2400.

Silver (27.37) has dipped after testing 27.77. Outlook is mixed. Support is at 27 and then lower at 26.50/26.30. A range of 28-26.30 might hold for a while. A break higher is needed to open doors towards 29.

Copper (4.5690) has fallen back from a high of 4.6450. Support is at 4.50/4.47. While that holds, we can expect a range of 4.47-4.70 to hold for some time. The rise towards 4.8 that we had mentioned yesterday may or may not happen.

Natural Gas (2.2110) has risen back above 2.2 and looks bullish for a rise towards 2.50 in the near term. A break above 2.3 can trigger this rise.


11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – … Expected 5.25% … Previous 5.25%

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – … Expected 0-0-9 … Previous 0-1-8

Data Yesterday
4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – … Expected 4.35% … Previous 4.35% …Actual 4.35%

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.2% … Expected 0.6% … Previous -0.3% …Actual 0.8%