The Dollar Index can rise to 106 while above 105 and Euro can fall to 1.07 while below resistance at 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY need to hold below immediate resistances at 156 and 168 to decline from here. Else, the pairs could soon rise towards 157/158 and 169/170 respectively. USDCNY has risen with a gap up and can test 7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie and Pound could range within 0.6550-0.6650 and 1.2450-1.26 respectively. EURINR could dip to 89.50 while below resistance at 90. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 for this week.

Dollar Index (105.317) has not broken past our expected 105.50 but it has managed to sustain well above 105. However, while above 105, the view remains bullish for a rise towards 105.50-106 soon in the next few sessions. Only a break below 105, if seen, can drag it towards 104.5 (looks less likely for now).

On Friday, EURUSD (1.0770) observed a high of 1.0790 before coming down. Now, while below immediate resistance at 1.08, view remains bearish towards 1.0750-1.07 for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (155.74) has been moving within a narrow region of 155-156 whereas EURJPY (167.74) tested 168 as expected. USDJPY will have to break above 156 and sustain to head towards 157/158 while EURJPY, if breaks above 168 can head to 169/170 before again reversing back lower. Else if current levels hold, an immediate dip is possible. Watch price action near 156 and 168 closely.

USDCNY (7.2336) opened with a gap up today at 7.23 from Friday’s close at 7.2256. It can continue to rise towards 7.24. Immediate view is bullish.

Aussie (0.6595) and Pound (1.2524) are likely to hold within the range of 0.6550-0.6650 and 1.2450-1.26 respectively for the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.5050) traded well within 83.5275-83.41 last week and could continue to sustain within the broader range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 for the current week also. Thereafter, it can eventually rise higher towards 83.62 in the medium term.

EURINR (89.9632) is trading at immediate resistance at 90 which if holds can push the pair down towards 89.50-89 in the near term. Otherwise if the pair break and sustains above 90, it can slowly head towards 90.50-91.


The US Treasury yields have risen back again. They have to get a strong follow-through rise. Else a dip to test their support can still happen before the yields reverse higher strongly. The US inflation data release on Wednesday will be important to watch. The German yields have moved further up. The bounce from the supports last week is sustaining well. That keeps the short-term outlook bullish to see more rise in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are struggling to get a strong rise. They remain vulnerable to fall from here and test their crucial supports first. Thereafter the yields can rise back again.

The US 10Yr (4.49%) and the 30Yr (4.64%) yields have risen back again. Need to see if this bounce sustains. The 10Yr can still touch 4.4% before rising back again targeting 4.6% levels. The 30Yr can rise to 4.8% while it sustains above 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and the 30Yr (2.65%) yields have moved up further. This keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr). The supports at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) have held very well last week.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1276%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1093%) have come down. Both the 10Yr and 5Yr vulnerable to break 7.1% and fall to 7% first. Thereafter the yields can rise back again.


Dow Jones has risen above the resistance at 39500 and can now rise further towards 40000. DAX continues to move up. We must be careful as there is crucial resistance at the current level. A break above it, if seen, can open doors towards its next key resistance. Nifty has recovered a bit and might rise towards 22200-22500 while it sustains above 21800. Nikkei to trade sideways within 39000-37000 for a while with a bearish view. Shanghai has fallen but the downside seems limited to 3100.

Dow (39512.84, +0.32%) continues to move up and can rise to 39900-40000. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if it is reversing lower and extending the rise to 41000-42000.

DAX (18772.85, +0.46%) touched 18800 as expected. It has room to test 19100-19200 from here and then can reverse lower again below 19000. Beware there is a crucial resistance seen at the current level.

Nifty (22055.20, +0.44%) can get a bounce to 22200-22500 this week if it sustains above 21800. But a decisive rise above 22500 is needed to become bullish for a rise to 22800-23000. Only then the danger of breaking 21800 and the fall to 21500-21300 will get negated. So, we need to be cautious.

Nikkei (38094.78, -0.35%) has dipped towards the lower end of the 39000-38000 narrow range. May dip towards 37600-37000 and then a bounce towards 39000 can be seen. Overall a broad range of 39000-37000 can hold for a while.

Shanghai (3144.64, -0.32%) has dipped below 3150. Support at 3100 may hold and lead to a rise towards the key resistance at 3200. Thereafter, we expect to see a corrective fall towards 3100-3000.


Crude prices have dipped. Brent and WTI are overall bearish while below $ 85 and $ 80-81 respectively. Gold and Silver can fall while below the resistance at 2385-2400 and 29 respectively. Copper might trade sideways between 4.80-4.50. Natural Gas has declined but could find support near 2.1.

Brent ($ 82.27) has dipped within the $ 85-82 range. A rise towards $ 87 that we had mentioned earlier may not happen as $ 85 seems to be a decent resistance now. Failure to break above $ 85 along with a decisive break below $ 82 would be highly bearish towards $ 80-75.

WTI ($ 77.89) has fallen sharply after facing rejections at $ 80. We had expected to see a rise towards $ 81-82. Key resistance is now at $ 80-81. Failure to break above $ 80-81 coupled with a break below $ 77.50-77.00 would be vulnerable to see a further fall to $ 75-70.

Gold (2365.90) has resistance at 2385-2400. While that holds, a fall back towards 2300 is possible. In the medium term, a fall towards 2250-2200 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (28.25) tested 29 as expected and has dipped from there. While below 29, it can fall towards 28.00-27.50.

Copper (4.6225) rose sharply to test 4.75 last Friday and has dipped from there. Key resistance is at 4.80 whereas support is seen at 4.50. Might consolidate between 4.80-4.50 for some time.

Natural Gas (2.2320) has fallen back after testing 2.3440. Support is seen at 2.1. While that holds, a rise towards 2.5 is possible in the near term.


12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 4.93 … Expected 4.80 … Previous 4.85

Data Friday
6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn – … Expected -14.5 … Previous -14.1 …Actual -14.0

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 2.4% … Expected – … Previous 5.6% …Actual 4.9%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – … Expected 20.9K … Previous -2.2K …Actual 90.4K