The Dollar Index tested 105.74 on the upside before coming down and Euro rose sharply to test its resistance near 1.08 after the BOE kept the interest rates unchanged at 5.25% in its meeting held yesterday. USDJPY and EURJPY are rising well towards our mentioned targets of 157 and 168 respectively. USDCNY holds above 7.22 and can further test 7.23-7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie is nearing the upper end of its range of 0.6550/0.6650, while Pound has bounced back well after the BOE meeting but could face rejection near 1.26 and come down towards 1.24/2350 before bottoming out in the medium term. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while below 90-90.2. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30.

Dollar Index (105.31) managed to rise past our target of 105.5 to test 105.74 on the upside before coming down. Currently, it has remained above 105 but unless a break past 105.5 is seen, there is a chance of it getting dragged towards 104.5 in the near term.

Contrary to our expectations, EURUSD (1.0775) has risen significantly towards its resistance around 1.0780 after the BOE kept the interest rates unchanged at 5.25% yesterday. BOE Governor Bailey hinted at a possible rate cut in June-24. Going ahead, a necessary break above current levels will be needed to rise towards 1.0830 on the upside. Else it is likely to fall back towards 1.07 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (155.73) and EURJPY (167.79) are gradually rising towards our mentioned target of 157 and 168 respectively in the near term. While the pairs hold above their respective supports of 152 and 164, the overall view remains bullish.

USDCNY (7.2246) continues to remain stable above 7.22. We are keeping our view intact to see a rise towards 7.23/24 in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6603) managed to bounce back from 0.6558 and rise above 0.66. An immediate range of 0.655-0.6650 may hold for a few sessions.

Pound (1.2517) tested 1.24456 but bounced back sharply post the BOE meeting. A range of 1.2450-1.26 can hold for the coming sessions. Interim resistance can be seen at 1.2550.

USDINR (83.5063) continues to remain volatile within its range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 and can persist for some time unless a decisive break can be seen on either side of it. A narrower range of 83.40-83.55 looks possible in the next few sessions.

EURINR (89.9420) has risen towards resistance near 90, on Euro strength. But the overall view continues to remain bearish to 89.50-89.20 while below 90-90.20.


The US Treasury yields have come down again failing to sustain the bounce. This keeps alive the chances of seeing a fall first to test their supports. The price action thereafter will need a watch for a reversal. The German yields are getting a follow-through rise after bouncing from their supports. This leaves the outlook positive to see more rise from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have to get a strong follow-through rise breaking above their immediate resistances in order to move higher. Else the yields can still fall to test their supports first and then resume the upmove.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and the 30Yr (4.60%) yields have come down again failing to sustain the bounce seen on Wednesday. The 10Yr has failed to breach 4.5% and keeps alive the chances of the fall to 4.4%-4.35%. The 30Yr can fall to 4.5% and lower on a break below 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.63%) yields continue to move up. The bounce from near their supports at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) is sustaining well. This can take the yields up to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) in the coming days.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1321%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1192%) remain higher but stable. They have to get a sustained rise above 7.16% (10Yr) and 7.18% (5Yr) to avoid the fall to 7% and rise to 7.3% (10Yr) and 7.3%-7.4% (5Yr) straight away from here.


Dow Jones is coming closer towards its resistance at 39500. Need to see if Dow breaks higher or falls from there. DAX has broken above its resistance and looks bullish to target further highs. Nifty has fallen sharply below its key support but we need to closely watch 21800 level. A break below it could be further bearish for Nifty. Nikkei looks ranged within 39000-37000 for a while. Shanghai has scope to test key resistance at 3200 in the near term before a corrective fall can happen.

Dow (39387.76, +0.85%) is coming closer to 39500. A break above it can take the index further up to 39800-39900. Else a pullback to 39200 can be seen in the coming sessions.

DAX (18686.60, +1.02%) has risen and closed above 18600. While this sustains, the view is bullish to see 18800 and even 19100 on the upside in the coming days.

Nifty (21957.50, -1.55%) has declined and closed just below 22000. Crucial level to watch now is 21800 which has to hold and take the Nifty back above 22000 to ease the downside pressure. Indeed, a decisive rise above 22500 is necessarily needed now to become bullish again. A break below 21800 will indicate a top and drag the Nifty down to 21500-21300.

Nikkei (38227, +0.41%) is stuck in a narrow range of 39000-38000. Chances of fall towards 37000 remains alive as long as it holds below 39000. Overall a broad range of 39000-37000 can hold for a while.

Shanghai (3142.23, -0.38%) has scope to test key resistance at 3200. Thereafter a corrective fall might be seen towards 3100-3000.


Brent and WTI are heading up towards their immediate resistance while if holds can lead to a fall back in the near term. Gold and Silver have risen sharply above their upper end of the range and have scope to test 2400 and 29 respective. A rise past these is needed for increased bullishness, else the precious metals could witness a fall. Copper is moving up towards its sideways range. Need to see if it breaks on the upside or not. Natural Gas remains bullish for the near term.

Brent ($ 84.25) is rising towards the upper end of the $ 82-85 range. While above $ 82, a rise towards $ 87 can be seen. If that holds, a fall towards $ 80-75 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

WTI ($ 79.68) has extend the bounce. A rise towards $ 81-82 is possible. If that holds, a fall back towards $ 75-70 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Gold (2356) has broken the 2350-2300 range on the upside. It can now test 2400. After that a fall back might be seen towards 2300 or even lower to 2250-2200.

Silver (28.52) has risen sharply above 28. A test of 29 looks likely. A break above it is needed to become further bullish towards 30-30.50. Else it may fall back towards 28.

Copper (4.6175) is moving up within its 4.47/4.50-4.70 range. A rise past 4.7 is needed for increased bullishness towards 4.8

Natural Gas (2.3320) has risen sharply above 2.3 and has scope to rise further towards 2.5.


6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn – … Expected -14.5 … Previous -14.2

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 2.4% … Expected – … Previous 5.7%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – … Expected 20.9K … Previous -2.2K

Data Yesterday
11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – … Expected 5.25% … Previous 5.25% …Actual 5.25%

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – … Expected 0-0-9 … Previous 0-1-8 …Actual 0-2-7