The dollar Index broke above 105 and looks slightly bullish. The Fed minutes released on Wednesday highlighted concerns about inflation and uncertainty about when to ease rates. Members indicated a lack of confidence in moving forward with interest rate reductions, suggesting a more cautious approach to monetary policy. Euro tests support at 1.08 which needs to hold and take it back to 1.09 else could be vulnerable to test 1.0750-1.07. EURJPY and USDJPY continue to move up targeting 170 and 158 respectively. USDCNY is headed towards 7.25/26. Aussie failed to hold the support at 0.66 and can test 0.6550. The pound has fallen sharply and could test 1.2650-1.26 soon. USDINR may rise to 83.30/40/50 while above 83.15/20. EURINR can test 89.50 before bouncing back to 90+ levels.

Dollar Index (105.099) has slightly risen above its range of 104.50-105 and now while it sustains above the current levels, a rise to 106-106.50 is likely. Else it is likely to fall back towards 104.5 or even lower in the coming sessions.

EURUSD (1.0807) has been coming off since the last few sessions on continued Dollar strength. Currently trading near its immediate support at 1.08, if it holds, a bounce towards 1.085-1.09 could be witnessed. On the other hand, failure to sustain above 1.08 can push it further towards 1.075-1.07 in the near term targeting 106 on the Dollar Index.

Dollar-Yen (157.08) and EURJPY (169.78) have been slowly inching up towards our targets of 158 and 170 respectively. Our bullish view remains intact for the near term.

USDCNY (7.2450) is rising in line with our expectations and can soon test resistance near 7.25/26 before possibly topping out.

Aussie (0.6594) has broken below 0.66 and is falling towards our expected level of 0.6550. Thereafter if the support holds, it can attempt to rise back towards 0.67-0.6750.

Pound (1.2691) appears to have topped out at 1.2761, contrary to our view of seeing a rise to 1.28. If the fall continues, then it can test 1.2650-1.26 in the near term. Resistance near 1.28 holds crucial in the medium term.

USDINR (83.2850) could attempt to bounce while above 83.15/20 and head back towards 83.30/40/50 soon.

EURINR (90.00) has slipped slightly below the expected level of 90. On the charts there is room for a further dip to 89.50 but whether the pair will rise from the current level itself or see an initial dip from here is to be seen.


The US Treasury yields have risen. But resistances are ahead which have to be broken to move further higher. Else a fall from here cannot be avoided. The German yields have come up to our expected levels. We have to wait and watch if a correction is happening from here or not. But, a strong follow-through rise from here can take them further higher in the coming days and will continue to keep the bullish view intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have key supports near current levels. While that holds, a sideways consolidation is possible for some time before the yields rise again.

The US 10Yr (4.48%) and the 30Yr (4.58%) yields have risen. Need to see if a break above 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) is happening to take them up to to 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.8% (30Yr). Else the yields can fall back to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.59%) and the 30Yr (2.71%) yields have come up to our expected levels. If the 10Yr manages to breach 2.6% decisively, a further rise to 2.8%-2.9% is possible. The 30Yr can touch 3% if it sustains the break above 2.7%. We will have to wait and see.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0371%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0266%) were closed yesterday. As mentioned yesterday, 7% is expected to hold and a range of 7%-7.1% is possible before a rise to 7.2%-7.3% (10Yr) and 7.2% (5Yr) is seen. This view will go wrong if a decisive break below 7% happens.


Dow Jones has fallen sharply. A break below 39000, if seen can extend the fall to 38500. Dax is to trade between 18600 and 18900 for a while with a scope to see a break on the upside. Nifty has surged towards 23000. The level of 23000-23150 is a crucial resistance zone. If that holds, a corrective fall could be seen. Nikkei has fallen back but may find support at 38000. Shanghai has come down near the support at 3100. Need to see if that holds or if it breaks lower to 3050.

The corrective fall to 39000 on the Dow (39065.26, -1.53%) has happened much faster than expected. Need to see if a bounce is happening for here or the fall is extending up to 38800-38500.

DAX (18691.32, +0.06%) remains stable above 18600. We expect the 18600-18900 range to hold and the DAX to rise to 18900 eventually. A break below 18600 will negate this view and take the index down to 18400.

Nifty (22967.65, +1.64%) has surged above 22800. Key resistance is at 23000-23150. If that holds, a corrective fall can be seen towards 22800-22500. A break higher, if seen, can lead to an extended rise to 23200.

Nikkei (38687.50, -1.09%) has fallen sharply but has key immediate support at 38000. While that holds, the chances of a rise towards 40000 will remain intact.

Shanghai (3109.83, -0.21%) has declined towards 3100. While 3100 holds, a bounce back towards the key resistance at 3200 can be seen. Failure to hold above 3100 could be vulnerable to a fall towards 3050.


Crude remains bearish for the near term. Gold has broken below its support and looks vulnerable to a further fall from here. Silver might break below its support and target further downside. Copper has dipped below 4.8 but has support at 4.7. Need to see if that holds and produces a bounce back or not. Natural Gas has risen towards its key resistance which if holds, can lead to a corrective fall.

Brent ($ 81.37) and WTI ($ 76.82) remain subdued and can fall towards $ 80-75 (Brent) and $ 75-70 (WTI) while below the resistance at $ 85 (Brent) and $ 80 (WTI) respectively.

Gold (2332) has broken below the support at 2360-2350. While this break sustains, a dip to 2300-2250 looks possible.

Silver (30.47) is heading down towards 30.00. It looks vulnerable to a break below 30 and falls towards 29.

Copper (4.7930) has fallen below 4.8. Need to see if the support at 4.7 holds and produces a bounce back towards 5 or not. A break lower, if seen, would be vulnerable to a further fall towards 4.5-4.4.

Natural Gas (2.9430) has moved up towards 3 as expected. A rise past 3.0 is needed for increased bullishness towards 3.4-3.5. Else a dip towards 2.8-2.7 cannot be ruled out.


23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -17 … Expected -18 … Previous -19

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 2.9 … Expected 2.2 … Previous 2.7

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 0.9% … Expected -0.5% … Previous 0.9%

Data Yesterday
14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 724K … Expected 674K … Previous 665K …Actual 634K