The Dollar Index and Euro can continue to trade within 106.50-105/104.50 and 1.0650-1.0750/08 respectively while Dollar-Yen tested 161.95 on the upside before cooling a bit. EURJPY has exceeded our target of 174. Aussie & Pound have risen well but continue to remain sideways within the range of 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 respectively. USDCNY is nearing our target of 7.28 from where an initial dip looks possible. EURINR had risen above 90 but is coming off now. Overall, the pair can trade within 90.30-89.80/50 region for some time. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.30-83.67 in the near term with an immediate range of 83.45-83.60 for today.

The softer-than-expected US ADP Employment release at 150 led Dollar Index (105.311) to decline and the EURUSD (1.0787) to strengthen a bit. Overall, the pairs continue to trade within an immediate range of 106.50-105/104.50 and 1.0650-1.0750/08 respectively.

Dollar-Yen (161.44) observed a high of 161.95 before cooling down a bit. While above 161, overall view continues to remain bullish towards 162-164 on the upside before possibly topping out.

EURJPY (174.12) has exceeded our target of 174. Now, resistance can be spotted around 174.50-175, which if holds, can lead to corrective fall towards 170 in the medium term.

USDCNY (7.2708) dipped yesterday to test 7.2680 but managed to rise back to 7.27+ today. It has to continue trade above 7.27 to slowly move up towards 7.28 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6716) and Pound (1.2745) have risen significantly within their respective ranges. If Aussie manages to break above 0.6720, it could lead to a rise towards 0.68 breaking the immediate sideways consolidation seen since May-24. Pound on the other hand may remain below 1.28 in the near term.

USDINR (83.5350) traded within a narrow range of 83.5550-83.4875 yesterday. It could trade between 83.45-83.60 for the day. A narrow range of 83.60/62-83.50/45 could for the next few sessions.

EURINR (90.0784) tested 90.2592 before coming off from there. If the fall sustains, it can dip back to 89.80 in the next 1-2 sessions. Immediate upside could be capped near 90.30/50.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply. Failure to rise back immediately can drag the yields further lower. That in turn will negate the rise that we have been expecting. The German yields have dipped but are likely to rise back again. The broader bullish view is intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined. Key supports are there to limit the downside. We expect the yields to bounce back again from their support.

The US 10Yr (4.36%) and the 30Yr (4.53%) yields have declined sharply below 4.4% and 4.6% respectively. While this sustains, the yields can fall back to 4.2% and 4.4% in the coming days. The rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.75% (30Yr) will not happen in that case.

The German 10Yr (2.58%) and the 30Yr (2.74%) yields have dipped slightly. But the view remains bullish. The yields can rise back and target 2.8% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9987%) has declined below 7%. Failure to rise back immediately can take it down to 6.95%. That in turn might delay the rise to 7.05%-7.06% that we have been expecting.

The 5Yr GoI (6.9842%) has also declined below 7% and is just above the crucial support at 6.97%. We expect this support to hold and take the yield above 7% again. A break below 6.97% will be bearish to see 6.95%-6.9% on the downside.

Dow Jones remains stuck in a narrow range but has scope to see a breakout on the upside. DAX looks mixed. A clear break on either side of the range is needed to get more clarity on future direction. Nifty has risen above the resistance at 24200-24250 and now looks bullish to target new highs from here. Nikkei is heading up towards its key resistance which can halt the current rally. Shanghai has dipped further, but downside might be limited to 2960-2950.

Dow (39308, -0.06%) remains flat and stable within its 38900-39600 range. The US markets are closed today.

DAX (18374.53, +1.16%) is oscillating up and down within its 18000-18400 range. We will have to wait for a breakout of this range to get clarity on whether the DAX can rise to 18600-18800 or fall to 17700-17600.

Nifty (24286.50, +0.67%) risen and closed above 24250. This keeps the bullish view intact of seeing 24500-24700. Support will now be around 24200.

Nikkei (40715.00, +0.29%) is heading up towards 41000 as expected. While 41000 holds, a fall back towards 40000 can be seen. A decisive break above 40000, if seen, can be further bullish towards 42000.

Shanghai (2975.72, -0.22%) has dipped further towards 2970. Support is now seen at 2960-2950. While these holds, there could be chances of break above 3000 and rise towards 3050 in the coming days.

Crude prices have recovered and have scope to test their key resistance in the near term before a corrective dip can be seen. Gold, Silver and Copper have risen sharply, breaking above their resistances after lower than expected US ADP Non-Farm Employment and US ISM Services PMI data, which is a dovish factor for Fed monetary policy. The Metals can rise further from here. Natural Gas remains bearish for the near term.

Brent ($ 86.93) has bounced back after testing $ 85.89. A rise towards $ 90-91 can be seen in the near term while above $ 86-85. After that, a corrective fall can be seen towards $ 85-80.

WTI ($ 82.61) has risen back from a low of $ 81.61. A rise towards $ 84-85 looks possible in the near term while above $ 82-81. Thereafter, a corrective fall towards $ 80 can be seen.

Gold (2369.70) has risen sharply above the resistance at 2360, contrary to our view that the resistance will hold and keep it ranged between 2360-2300. Now a rise towards 2400 looks possible while above 2340.

Silver (30.88) has surged towards 31, breaking above the resistance at 30.00-30.17. This is contrary to our view that resistance will hold and lead to a fall towards 29.00-27.50. Now, while this break sustains, a further rise towards 32 can be seen.

Copper (4.5330) has risen sharply, breaking above the resistance at 4.50. This has now reduced the chances of fall towards 4.24/4.20. It can now rise towards 4.65-4.70 while above 4.50.

Natural Gas (2.4290) trades lower below 2.5. View remains bearish for a fall towards 2.3-2.1-2.0 in the near term.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – … Expected 6.20 … Previous 6.55

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.5 … Expected – … Previous 1.3

Data Yesterday
…………..
22:30 04:00 AU PMI
Expn – … Expected – … Previous -31.1 …Actual -26.5

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 59.7 … Expected 60.4 … Previous 60.2 …Actual 60.5

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – … Expected 156K … Previous 157K …Actual 150K

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -73.3 … Expected -76.0 … Previous -74.5 …Actual -75.1