The increased expectations of rate cut in Sep-24 led Dollar Index to decline and Euro to strengthen. Dollar index can continue to trade within 106.50-105/104.50 with bearish view. Euro can rise towards 1.0850/1.0900 in the near term. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY have fallen. Both have key resistance overhead which may hold and lead to a fall further in the near term. Aussie & Pound have risen well and if sustained, can head towards 0.68 and 1.28 respectively. USDCNY has declined below 7.27 and might fall further from here. EURINR has risen above 90 and a further rise to 91 looks likely to happen in the near term. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.67-83.30 in the near term. Watch out for the US NFP and Unemployment data release scheduled today.

The softer-than-expected U.S. economic data releases during the week has increased the expectations of likelihood of a U.S. rate cut in September. This led to Dollar Index Dollar Index (105.06) to continue falling today as well. The overall range of 106.50-105/104.50 remains intact for now. A better clarity in the view could be expected post the US NFP & Unemployment data release scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.0817) has strengthened against Dollar. Currently, it has slightly risen above the expected range of 1.0650-1.0750/08 and further if the rise continues, a test of 1.0850-1.09 looks likely to happen before possibly topping out.

Dollar-Yen (160.97) can fall towards 160-159 while below the resistance at 162.

EURJPY (174.12) has crucial resistance at 175, while below which, a dip towards 173-172 could be seen.

USDCNY (7.2686) has dipped below 7.27 and might come down towards 7.26-7.25.

The strengthening of Euro and ahead of the UK elections, with expectations that the Labour Party’s Keir Starmer could become the next prime minister, Aussie (0.6735) and Pound (1.2764) have risen well. If Aussie manages to sustain above 0.6720, it could lead to a rise towards 0.68 breaking the immediate sideways consolidation of 0.6580-0.6720 seen since May-24. Pound on the other hand can head towards 1.28 in the near term.

USDINR (83.4975) fell to 83.47 before closing slightly higher at 83.4975. A narrow range of 83.67-83.40/30 can be expected for the near term. Along with this, a possible rise towards 83.70-83.80 cannot be negated for the medium term.

EURINR (90.3110) contrary to our expectations of seeing a fall towards 89.80, the pair has made a high of 90.3116 today. A further rise towards 90.5-91.0 is possible for the near term. Medium term looks ranged between 91-89.


The US Treasury yields can fall further if they fail to rise from here immediately. The US jobs data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have bounced back. The bullish view is intact. The yields can rise further from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding above their support. A strong rise from here can take them higher and avoid the danger of falling more.

The US 10Yr (4.37%) and the 30Yr (4.54%) yields can fall to 4.2% and 4.4% respectively if they fail to rise back above 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr). The expected rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.75% (30Yr) will not happen then.

The German 10Yr (2.6%) and the 30Yr (2.75%) yields have bounced back. The bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9994%) has risen back from a low of 6.9834%. A rise above 7% will avoid the dip to 6.95% mentioned yesterday and take the yield up to 7.05%-7.06%.

The 5Yr GoI (6.9847%) remains lower but stable. We expect the support at 6.97% to hold and take the yield above 7% again. Only a break below 6.97% will bring the 5Yr under pressure to see 6.95%-6.9% on the downside.


Dow Jones has scope to see a breakout on the upside of its sideways range. DAX has broken on the upside of the range and now looks bullish to target further highs. Nifty can rise towards 24500-24700. Nikkei is attempting to break above its resistance. Need to see if it able to break sustainably or falls back. Shanghai has fallen sharply below 2950 and might come down further to 2900.

Dow (39308) were closed yesterday. The bias is positive to see an upside breakout above the 38900-39600 range and a rise to 40000-40100.

DAX (18450.48, +0.41%) has broken the 18000-18400 range on the upside. While this break sustains, the outlook will be bullish to see 18600-18800 on the upside.

Nifty (24302.15, +0.06%) sustains higher. The bullish view is intact to see 24500-24700 on the upside. Support is around 24200.

Nikkei (40993.00, +0.17%) is attempting to break above 41000. A decisive break above it is needed for further bullishness towards 42000. Else can fall back towards 39000.

Shanghai (2930.03, -0.93%) has fallen sharply below 2950, contrary to our view to see a bounce back from 2950. A test of 2900 looks likely. Thereafter we need to see if it bounces back towards 3000 or breaks lower towards 2800.


Crude prices remains bullish to target their key resistance in the near term before a corrective dip can be seen. Gold, Silver and Copper looks bullish in the near term. Natural Gas can dip towards 2.1-2.0. Key focus is on the US NFP data as that could bring volatility in the market.

Brent ($ 87.18) seems to be gradually moving up. A rise towards $ 90-91 can be seen in the near term. After that, a corrective fall is possible towards $ 85-80.

WTI ($ 82.89) has scope to rise towards $ 84-85 in the near term. Thereafter, a corrective fall towards $ 80 can be seen.

Gold (2370.90) can rise towards 2400 while above 2340. A broad range of 2300-2400 can hold for the near term.

Silver (30.83) can rise towards 32 while above 30.

Copper (4.5775) can rise towards 4.65-4.70 while above 4.50.

Natural Gas (2.3610) continues to dip and can fall towards 2.3-2.1-2.0 from here.


9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.1% … Expected 0.2% … Previous -0.5%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 255K … Expected 189K … Previous 272K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 4.1% … Expected 4.0% … Previous 4.0%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.5 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn -3.3 … Expected – … Previous 0.1

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – … Expected 24.5K … Previous 26.7K

Data Yesterday
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – … Expected 6.20 … Previous 6.03 …Actual 5.77

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.5 … Expected 1.4 … Previous 1.3 …Actual 1.3