Lower US NFP data on Friday led to Dollar weakness below 105 and Euro strength above 1.08. However, both could limit its near-term move to 104.50 and 1.0850/09 respectively. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY have dipped as expected but could soon bounce back from 160 and 173. Aussie & Pound have risen well and could test 0.68 and 1.2850 respectively. USDCNY is likely to continue trade within 7.26-7.28. EURINR has risen and could limit its upside to 91 from where a dip to 89.50-89 could be possible in the medium term. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.30-83.67 in the near term. A dip to 83.40/30 can be possible today on a stronger Euro.

After the lower-than-previous U.S. NFP data release on Friday to 206k (218k), the Dollar Index (104.907) slipped to a low of 104.84. Currently, it is attempting to recover from there. Overall, the range of 106.50-105/104.50 remains intact for now.

EURUSD (1.0828) rose to the level of 1.0842 on Friday on Dollar weakness due to weaker US NFP. We expect the overall upside to be capped at 1.09 in the near term and the overall range of 1.07-1.0850/09 to hold for a while.

Dollar-Yen (160.32) and EURJPY (173.59) are nearing our mentioned targets of 160 and 173 respectively, which can be tested soon before they attempt to rise back towards the resistance at 162 and 175 respectively.

USDCNY (7.2681) is holding well above 7.26. A confirmed rise past 2.27 can take it towards 7.28 in the near term, thereby negating our expected fall towards 7.26-7.25.

Aussie (0.6746) along with Pound (1.2808) has strengthened a bit as the Keir Starmer swept to victory in the UK general election. An immediate resistance can be spotted at 1.2850 in Pound which can be tested soon in the near term. Thereafter, if the resistance holds, can take it down to previous levels in the medium term. Similarly, if Aussie manages to see a sustained rise above 0.6750, a test to 0.68 could be seen in the near term.

USDINR (83.49) can continue to trade within a narrow range of 83.67/60-83.40/30 for the rest of the July month. Today, we may expect some dip towards 83.40/30 on a stronger Euro.

EURINR (90.3671) tested 90.50 on Friday as expected before cooling down a bit. Overall, the pair can remain ranged between 91-89 for a while.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply on Friday after the US Unemployment data release. The Unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June. The Treasury yields can fall further in the coming days. The German yields have also declined. But the broader view remains bullish, and the yields can rise back to keep the overall uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are struggling to gain strength and rise. But as long as they sustain above their support the bias is positive to see a rise going forward. It is a wait-and-watch situation now.

The US 10Yr (4.298%) and the 30Yr (4.493%) yields have come down sharply. The yields can now fall to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) while they remain below 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.533%) and the 30Yr (2.721%) yields have declined again but are likely to be short-lived. The broader view is bullish to see a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.00% (30Yr). Support is at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.9926%) has dipped failing to sustain the break above 7%. While above 6.98%, it can breach 7% and rise to 7.05%-7.06%. A break below 6.98% can take it down to 6.96%.

The 5Yr GoI (6.9826%) has dipped slightly but sustains above the support at 6.97%. While above 6.97% a rise above 7% can be seen. Only a break below 6.97% can take it down to 6.95%-6.90%.

Most of the equities look bullish for the near term except for Shanghai. Dow Jones is still stuck in a narrow zone but has scope to see an eventual breakout on the upside. Shanghai looks bearish towards 2900. Need to see if it falls further below 2900 or not.

Dow (39375.87, 0.17%) is still stuck in the 38900-39600 range. The bias is positive to break 39600 and see a rise to 40000-40200.

DAX (18475.45, +0.14%) spiked to 18650 and has come down from there. While above 18000 the broader outlook is bullish to see 19000-19200 in the coming weeks.

Nifty (24323.85, +0.09%) has risen back well from the low of 24169. The short-term bias remains positive to see a rise to 24500-24700. Strong support is around 24000.

Nikkei (41031.50, +0.34%) is hovering around 41000. It may rise past 41000 and move up towards 42000. The downside could be limited to 39000.

Shanghai (2933.84, -0.55%) trades lower below 2950 and fell to a low of 2920 so far. A test of 2900 looks likely. Failure to hold above 2900 would be vulnerable to a further fall to 2850-2800.

Crude prices have fallen back whereas Gold, Silver, and Copper have risen sharply followed by the release of lower US Non-farm payroll data and High unemployment data which has increased the FED rate cut expectations this year. Crude prices have near-term supports that could stall the current fall and produce a bounce toward their key resistance. Metals have scope to target further upside in the near term. Natural Gas has recovered a bit but bias is still tilted towards bearishness.

Brent ($ 86.37) has declined failing to rise past $ 88. Immediate support is seen at $ 86 and then at $ 85.70-85.00. While above $ 85, chances of a rise towards $ 90-91 cannot be ruled out in the near term. After that, a corrective fall is possible towards $ 85-80.

WTI ($ 82.03) has fallen back after testing $ 83.58 last Friday. Immediate support comes around $ 81-80, while above which, the chances of seeing a rise towards $ 84-85 remain intact. After that, a corrective fall towards $ 80 can be seen.

Gold (2394.70) has risen sharply towards 2400 as expected and has scope to rise further to 2450-2460 before a pause can be seen.

Silver (31.52) has moved up towards 32 in line with expectations. A further rise to 33 looks possible while above 31.00-30.50.

Copper (4.6355) rose sharply to 4.70 last Friday as expected. It may rise further towards 4.8-5.0 while it remains above 4.50.

Natural Gas (2.3350) fell to 2.2680 so far in line with expectations before bouncing back a bit from there. Bias remains bearish for a fall towards 2.1-2.0 before a possible rise back up can be seen towards 2.5.

No major data release today.

Data Friday
…………
9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn 0.1% … Expected 0.2% … Previous -0.2% …Actual 0.1%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 236K … Expected 189K … Previous 218K …Actual 206K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 4.1% … Expected 4.0% … Previous 4.0% …Actual 4.1%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 4.08% … Expected – … Previous 4.05% …Actual 3.86%

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 6.34% … Expected – … Previous 4.03% …Actual 4.27%