The Dollar Index remained stable but could see some volatility today ahead of the semi-annual monetary policy meet. Euro is holding well within the range of 1.07-1.0850/09. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY have risen well and if sustained, can head towards 162 and 175 respectively. Aussie & Pound needs to see a strong break past 0.6750 and 1.2850 to test 0.68 and 1.2850 respectively else can see a decent dip from current levels. USDCNY is likely to continue to rise to 7.28 while above 7.27. EURINR has risen but could limit its upside to 91 from where a dip to 89.50-89 could be possible in the medium term. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.40-83.50/60 in the near term with a possible downside extension to 83.40.

The Dollar Index (105.028) remained stable yesterday within its range of 106.50-105/104.50 with a slight rise above 105. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee today. We might see some volatility due to speculations of rate cuts, but a decisive break on either side of the range will be needed for directional clarity in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0827) is holding well within the mentioned range of 1.07-1.0850/09 with the upside likely to be capped at 1.09 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (160.93) and EURJPY (174.23) reversed from the levels of 160.26 and 173.51 itself. Now if the rise sustains, a rise to the resistance at 162 and 175 respectively could be seen in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2720) has risen above 2.27 but needs to sustain to move higher towards 7.28 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6736) along with Pound (1.2804) need to see a strong rise past 0.6750 and 1.2850 to become further bullish in the near term. Else they are likely to fall back towards 0.6650 and 1.26. A sustained rise past 0.6750 and 1.2850 would bring 0.68 and 1.30 into the picture. Watch price action for the next few session to see if the current rise would sustain.

USDINR (83.4975) dipped to 83.40 but could not push itself further down despite a strong Euro above 1.08. As such, a narrow range of 83.40-83.50 can hold within a broader range of 83.60-83.30. Some volatility could be seen on the Offshore markets ahead of the FED’s semi-annual meet on Monetary policy.

EURINR (90.3935) continues to trade higher within the range of 89-91 which can persist for a while.


The US Treasury yields remain lower and keeps intact the chances of falling further from here. The German yields have dipped but are likely to reverse higher again. The broader view remains bullish. The 10Yr GoI can dip in the near-term before rising back again. The 5Yr GoI hovers around a key support. A strong rise is needed from here to avoid falling below the support.

The US 10Yr (4.27%) and the 30Yr (4.46%) yields remain lower but stable. We retain our view of the yields falling to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) while below 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.54%) and the 30Yr (2.69%) yields have dipped further slightly. The broader view remains bullish while above 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr). The yields can rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.9911%) is stuck between 6.98% and 7%. A dip to 6.96%-6.95% looks possible before a fresh rise happens breaking above 7%.

The 5Yr GoI (6.9797%) remains lower and hovers around the support at 6.97%. A strong bounce from here can take it above 7%. But a break below 6.97% will be bearish to see 6.95%-6.9% on the downside. Wait and watch.


Dow Jones and Dax have dipped after a brief spike to 39654 and 18601respectively. They could hold lower for a few sessions before eventually attempting to rise back above the mentioned resistances in the medium term. Nifty looks bullish towards 24500-24700 while above support at 24200/24000. Nikkei has been slowly inching up and could test 41500-42000 while Shanghai has been moving lower but needs to bounce back immediately from 2900 to avoid further extension of decline to 2850-2800. Watch price action at 2900.

Dow (39344.79, -0.08%) spiked to a high of 39654 and then has come down sharply. It is back in the 38900-39600 range. The sideways move can continue for some more time. Bias is positive to break 39600 and rise to 40000-40200.

DAX (18472.05, -0.02%) had failed to breach 18600 for the second consecutive day. A sustained rise above 18600 will take it up to 19000-19200. Immediate support is at 18400. Below that 18200-18000 is a strong support.

Nifty (24320.55, -0.01%) managed to bounce back well from the low of 24240. The short-term view is bullish to see a rise to 24500-24700. Support is at 24200 and 24000.

Nikkei (41386.80, +1.49%) has resumed its slow and steady uptrend after a brief pause over the last 3-sessions. A test of 41500-42000 is likely in the next 3-4 sessions before another dip is seen towards 41000. Immediate view is bullish while above 41000.

Shanghai (2907.10, -0.53%) has been falling slowly over the last few days but needs to bounce from interim support near 2900 to avoid further decline else could be vulnerable to extend towards 2850-2800 or even lower in the coming 1-2 weeks. Watch price action at 2900.


Crude prices are sustaining well below their resistances and could be stable to bearish for the near term unless a sharp rise from current levels are seen. Metals and Natural gas remain bearish for the near term although a short corrective upmove looks likely within the near term fall. Copper could rise on a decisive break above 4.60 else can also fall along with the metals.

Brent ($ 85.55) had a sharp decline to 85.56 yesterday. There is a fair chance of seeing a dip to 84-83 in the next few sessions.
WTI ($ 82.11) tested 82.08 yesterday, before closing at 82.33 but is currently trading lower again. Immediate support lies between 81 and 80. If this support holds, WTI could rise toward 84 before resuming its fall to 80.

Gold (2372) faced rejection at 2399.30 and fell sharply to 2358.30 yesterday. While it remains above the 2360-2340 zone, we expect an eventual rise towards 2450-2460.

Silver (31.17) had a corrective dip to 30.71 yesterday. It could enter into a sideways range between 30.50-32 for the immediate 1-2 sessions, thereafter while above 30.50, view is bullish for an eventual rise towards 32-33.

Copper (4.6135) dipped slightly to 4.58 yesterday. While it remains above 4.50, our view remains bullish, with an expected rise towards 4.8-5 in the medium term.

Natural Gas (2.3810) rose slightly to 2.3990 yesterday. Our view remains biased towards a fall to 2.1-2.0 before a potential rise to 2.5 but such a fall will need a confirmed break below 2.30.


No major data release today.

Data Yesterday
No major data released yesterday.