The Dollar Index surged after the Q2 US GDP came out stronger at 2.92%. A strong break past 101.50/75 will be needed to head towards 102.50 in the near term. Euro has broken below 1.11 and can extend its fall towards 1.10. USDJPY can fall back towards 142-140 in the near term, while EURJPY can remain ranged within 160-164. The pound is coming off as expected and is likely to fall towards 1.31 or lower. Aussie is currently moving within a narrow range of 0.6850-0.6750. USDCNY has broken below 7.12 and is currently trading near the support region around 7.08, a bounce from where will be needed to negate any further fall in the near term. EURINR has fallen below the support of 93 and if the fall continues, it can further test 92 in the coming sessions. USDINR may continue to trade within 83.75 -84.00 region for the near term. Watch out for the US PCE & US Personal Income data release scheduled today.

After the US GDP QoQ came out stronger at 2.92%, the Dollar Index (101.404) extended its rise further to the high of 101.578 before cooling a bit. An immediate resistance zone can be spotted around 101.50/75, break past which will be needed to head towards 102.50. US PCE and US Personal Income are scheduled today. Watch price action near 101.50/75 to see whether the rise extends further or falls back to 100.5 or lower in the coming sessions.

Dollar strength led EURUSD (1.1071) to slip sharply below 1.11, testing the low of 1.1055 before recovering from there. Further, if the fall continues, it can extend to 1.10 in the near term before attempting to rise back. Only a strong break below 1.10 if seen, can drag the pair further to 1.09 on the downside.

Dollar-Yen (144.75) needs to see a strong rise past 145-146 to head towards 148/150, else it is likely to fall back to 142/140 again.

EURJPY (160.25) is trading near the lower end of its 160-164 range. Bearishness will again come into the picture only on a break below 160. Until then the range can persist.

The USDCNY (7.0946) has moved in line with our alternate view of seeing a break below 7.12. Currently, it is trading above our mentioned support around 7.08 which needs to hold and take it higher to prevent further decline. Watch price action closely around 7.08.

Aussie (0.6797) can trade within a narrow range of 0.6850-0.6750 for some time. A confirmed break below 0.6750 can drag it further to 0.67-0.6650 in the near term. Until then, the range can persist for a while.

Pound (1.3163) is coming off in line with our bearish view and if the fall continues, it can extend to our mentioned target of 1.31 in the near term.

USDINR (83.8750) observed a low of 83.84 before closing higher. Resistance is at 84 and Support is at 83.80/75. A narrow range of 84.00-83.80/75 is expected to hold for the near term.

EURINR (92.8360) continued to fall yesterday, even below the expected support at 93. If the fall continues, it can make the pair vulnerable to test 92 on the downside soon.

The US Treasury yields have moved up. Resistances ahead can cap the upside if there is further rise from here. The broader view is bearish, and the yields can fall again. The US PCE data release today will be important to watch. A soft PCE number can drag the yields down. The German yields have bounced slightly but are unlikely to sustain. The trend is down and there is room to fall more. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. Though there is little room to rise from here, the yield is likely to fall back eventually and resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (3.86%) and the 30Yr (4.15%) yields have moved up. We reiterate that the upside can be capped at 4% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr). The broader trend is down. The yields are likely to fall back towards 3.5% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) eventually.

The German 10Yr (2.27%) and the 30Yr (2.52%) yields have bounced slightly. This is likely to be short-lived. The trend is down, and the yields can fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr) while below 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8637%) remains stable above 6.86%. We repeat that 6.88%-6.9% can cap the upside. View remains bearish to break 6.84% and fall to 6.8%-6.75%.

Dow Jones closed above 41000 and may further rise towards 41800-42000 while above the support at 40800. DAX continues to rise and may target 19500-19700 over the medium term. Nifty remains bullish for a rise towards 25500. Nikkei has broken above the upper end of the range as expected and looks bullish to rise further from here. Shanghai has bounced back sharply above 2850 but could face resistance at current levels and at 2900.

Dow (41335.05, +0.59%) closed slightly higher after some volatile intraday swings. While above the 41000-40800 support zone, the view is bullish to see 41800-42000. Only a break below 40800 will trigger a fall to 40500-40400.

DAX (18912.57, +0.69%) is heading up towards 19000 as expected. While above 18600 now, there is potential to target 19500-19700 on the upside over the medium term.

Nifty (25151.95, +0.40%) has risen and closed well above 25100. The bullish view is intact to see 25500. Immediate support is at 24900. Next support are at 24750 and 24500.

Nikkei (38,571.50, +0.58%) has risen above the upper end of the 37500-38500 range. View remains intact to see a rise towards 39000-39500 in the near term.

Shanghai (2854.47, +1.11%) has bounced back sharply above 2850 after testing a low of 2815. Immediate resistance is at current levels and then at 2900. While below 2900, chances of fall towards 2800 or even 2775 will remain intact.

Crude prices and Natural Gas are likely to trade sideways for a while. Gold to trade within 2500-2600 for a while with a bit bullish view. Silver and Copper have immediate support levels, while above which, they can potentially rise towards 31.00/31.30 and 4.4 respectively.

Brent ($ 78.89) rose to $ 79.57 yesterday and has come off a bit from there. A range of $ 80-75 may hold for some time. However, a break on the upside and rise towards $ 82-85 cannot be ruled out in the medium term.

WTI ($ 75.92) has come down a bit after testing a high of $ 76.90. It may trade sideways between $ 78-71 for a while. However, chances of seeing a rise towards $ 80-81 will remains intact in the medium term.

Gold (2549.90) is stuck within 2520-2570 range. Immediate view is mixed. A range of 2500-2600 might hold for a while. Within this, chances of seeing a rise towards 2600 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (29.81) is unable to gather strength to rise above 30. Immediate support is seen at 29.50-29.00. While above 29, a rise towards 31.0-31.3 is possible in the near term.

Copper (4.2285) is holding well above the support at 4.10. While above 4.10, chances of seeing a rise towards 4.4 remains intact.

Natural Gas (2.14) looks ranged between 2.0-2.3 for a while.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.6% … Expected 2.5% … Previous 2.5%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
Expn 8.2% … Expected – … Previous 7.8%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.2% … Expected 0.2% … Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.1% … Expected 0.5% … Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US PCE
Expn 0.1 … Expected 0.2 … Previous 0.1

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.1% … Previous 0.2%

Data on Yesterday
———————-
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 95.3 … Expected 95.8 … Previous 96 …Actual 96.6

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn 2.55% … Expected 2.8% … Previous 2.81% …Actual 2.92%