The Dollar index is poised to see a limited rise before a corrective decline sets in which indicates limited strength for the other major currencies against the dollar. Euro could limit its dip to 1.15 while EURJPY and USDJPY can continue to rise towards 180.50 and 157 respectively. EURINR is bullish to 112 while above 110 but USDCNY has declined sharply and seems to resume its fall towards 6.70. Aussie and Pound can test 0.71-0.7050 and 1.3450 before rebounding from there. USDINR is bullish for a rise to 96.00-96.50 before a corrective decline can be expected.

Dollar Index (99.694) has risen well and while It holds above 99.50, we may see a test of 99.85-100 in the near term before a correction sets in. That said, EURUSD (1.1536) could limit its downside to 1.15 from where a rebound towards 1.17 can be possible.

Dollar-Yen (155.30) has been rising over the last 3-sessions and can continue to move up further towards 157 from where a corrective dip can be expected.

EURJPY (179.18) has risen as expected and could be headed towards 180.25-180.50 in the next few sessions.

EURINR (110.7065) has dipped slightly. There is support near 110 above which the cross pair looks bullish for a rise towards 112.

USDCNY (6.7105) has fallen sharply and could be headed towards 6.70. Overall trend looks bearish.

Aussie (0.7122) has dipped as expected and can test 0.71-0.7050 in the near term, before rising back again to higher levels of 0.72-0.73 in the longer run.

Pound (1.3472) has dipped to the support region of 1.35-1.3450 which is likely to hold and produce a bounce back towards 1.3550/36. Failure to bounce from 1.3450 would open chances of decline towards 1.33/32 in the medium term.

USDINR (95.96) is headed towards 96, a break above which can take it further towards 96.50 before a reversal is seen in the spot in the longer run.

The US Treasury and the German Yields sustain higher. Both the yields remain bullish. They can rise more from here. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome will need a close watch. Expectations are high for the Fed to increase the interest rates by 25 bps today. We will have to wait and see. Also, their economic projections that will be released today will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply to touch 7.1% much faster than expected. There is some more room to rise. But thereafter there are chances to see the yield reversing lower.

The US 10Yr (5%) and 30Yr (5.36%) yields continue to sustain higher. A sustained rise above 5% can take the 10Yr up to 5.1%-5.2%. The 30Yr on the other hand can rise to 5.5% on a break above 5.4%.

The German 10Yr (3.53%) and 30Yr (3.89%) Yields are moving up. The bullish view is intact to see 3.6% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0727%) touched 7.1% before closing the day at 7.0727%. The rise to 7.1%-7.15% is happening much faster than expected. 7.15% is a crucial level from where there are good chances for the yields to turn down.

Dow remains range-bound between 52000-53500 for now. DAX remains vulnerable to a decline towards 25000 after breaking below 25300. Nifty has weakened sharply and can decline towards 23000 in the near term. Nikkei remains weak below 65000 and can fall towards 63000-62000. Shanghai is testing 3850 support, with a break below this level opening the way towards 3800-3750.

Dow (52584.03, +0.10%) has fallen and looks range-bound between 52000-53500 for now.

DAX (25451.10, +0.08%) briefly broke below 25300 and tested a low of 25180 yesterday. As mentioned, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards 25000 in the coming sessions.

Nifty (23,118.60, -1.19%) has declined sharply and tested a low of 23118 before closing, in line with our view. A further decline towards 23000 looks possible in the near term.

Nikkei (63150.56, -0.50%) has fallen in line with our expectations and can decline towards 63000-62000 in the near term while below 65000.

Shanghai (3857.45, -0.19%) has pulled back and is attempting to break below 3850, contrary to our expectations. A sustained break below 3850 would negate the mentioned 3850-4000 range. It could then drag the index towards 3800-3750.

Brent and WTI continue to rise and can break above $ 110 and $ 105 respectively. Further gains towards $ 115-$ 120 and $ 110-$ 115 remain possible. Gold remains weak near $ 4300 and needs to hold this support for recovery towards $ 4500-$ 4600. Silver remains vulnerable towards $ 60, while Copper can decline towards $ 6.25-$ 6.00. Natural Gas may face resistance near $ 3.00, keeping the $ 2.80-$ 3.00 range intact.

Brent ($ 108.41) and WTI ($ 105.18) have risen and can break above $ 110 and $ 105. A further rise towards $ 115-$ 120 and $ 110-$ 115 respectively can be seen in the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4325.90) is falling and needs to hold above $ 4300. This would keep alive the chances of a rise towards $ 4500-$ 4600. Otherwise, a sustained break below $ 4300 would drag the price towards $ 4200-$ 4000.

Silver ($ 64.19) remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 60.

Copper ($ 6.45) has seen a slight recovery to $ 6.44 yesterday. However, it remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 6.25 or even $ 6.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 2.94) has risen and can face rejection near $ 3.00. This could keep the mentioned $ 2.80-$ 3.00 range intact.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
…Expected 3.1 % …Previous 2.8 %

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
…Expected -0.5 % …Previous 0.0 % –

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 0.2 % …Expected 0.8 % …Previous -0.8 %

18:00 23:30 US FOMC Meeting
…Previous <3.75 % ...Expected <4.00% 20:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Expected 146.3 $ bln …Previous 172.7 $ bln

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
CN Retail Sales
…Expected 0.8 % …Previous 0.6 % …Actual 0.4 %

CN IIP (YoY)
…Expected 4.8 % …Previous 4.5 % …Actual 5.2 %

UK Unemp
…Expected 4.9 % …Previous 4.9 % …Expected 5.0%

EU Trade Bal
…Expected 3.7 EURbln …Previous 1.8 EURbln …Actual 5.0 EURbln

IN Trade bal
Expn -33.3 $ bln …Previous -31.98 $ bln …Actual-26.86 $ bln