Europe is taking the lead in a renewed push for peace in Ukraine. As a result, Dollar Index has declined a bit. Overall, downside could be limited to 106.00-105.50 and a rise past 107.70 will be needed to head towards 108. Euro has interim resistance at 1.045, break past which can only bring 1.0500-1.0550 into picture. EURINR is holding its range of 90.50-91.50/92.00. USDJPY has limited upside to 151-152 and possibility of it falling back towards 148 is kept open for now. EURJPY has risen past 156 again and if sustained, can extend it further to 158 or even 160 as well. AUDUSD and Pound can fall towards 0.62/61 and 1.25 respectively in the near term. USDCNY on a break past 7.29, can extend the rise towards 7.30. USDINR is trading lower on the NDF. A rise past 87.50 can take it higher towards tested 87.40 on the upside. Now a break past 87.50 if seen, can take it higher at 88. Else, can fall back towards 86.90. US Manufacturing ISM and IN Manufacturing PMI data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (107.361) tested the high of 107.661 on Friday before coming down. US ISM manufacturing scheduled today might give better clarity on whether the fall extends further, or Index rises past 107.50 again. Overall, downside can be limited to 106.00-105.50 for now. A break past 107.50 can take it higher to 108.

EURUSD (1.0422) has risen past 1.04 again from the low of 1.0359 after the news came out that Europe is taking the lead in a renewed push for peace in Ukraine. An interim resistance is coming at 1.0450, break past which will be needed to head towards 1.05 or higher. Alternately, any break below 1.04 can drag it towards 1.0350-1.0300 again in the near term.

EURINR (91.0493) is holding the range of 90.50-91.50/92.00 and it is likely to persist in the near term.

EURJPY (155.19) halted the fall at 154.797 and has risen past 156 again, marking the previous fall as a false break. If the cross sustains above 156, it can extend the rise towards 158 or even160 in the near term. Only a decisive break below 156 can bring 154-152 back into picture.

151-152 is a strong resistance zone for Dollar-Yen (150.44) , break past which will be needed to turn bullish again, else it can again fall back towards 148 in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2828) needs to see a rise past 7.29 to extend the ongoing towards 7.30 or even higher as well in the coming sessions. Bias remains bullish for now.

Aussie (0.6215) had slipped below 0.62 on Friday and is again nearing 0.62. Upon testing, whether the fall halts or continues towards 0.61 is uncertain at the moment. In either case, a fall below 0.61 is not anticipated for now.

Pound (1.2602) has support coming at 1.25, from where it can bounce back again. Still, a rise past 126 will be needed to bring the upper targets of 1.27/28 into picture.

USDINR (87.3480) closed at 87.50 on Friday. On the NDF it is currently trading lower. A rise past 87.50 would be needed to move higher towards 87.80-88.00. Else, pair could decline further toward 87.00–86.90.

The US Treasury yields remain lower. The near-term outlook is bearish. The yields can fall more from here. The German yields hover above their key support. We expect the support to hold and the yields to rise in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has finally made the much-expected bullish breakout. More rise is on the cards now.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and 30Yr (4.52%) Treasury yields remain lower but stable. While below 4.25% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) the view is bearish to see a fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.40%) and the 30Yr (2.70%) yields hover above their key support. View remains the same. While above 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) the yields can rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.85% (30Yr).

The break above 6.7250% on the 10Yr GoI (6.7286%) has happened finally. While this break sustains, a further rise to 6.8%-6.85% can be seen.

The Dow Jones is nearing 44000. A rise past 44000 would negate the view of seeing a fall below 43000 to 42000 and possibly target 45000. Wait and watch price action near 44000. The DAX is holding the range of 22000-23000. The bias remains bullish to see a rise past 23000. Nifty has fallen below 22500. While below 22500, a fall towards 22000-21700 looks possible. Nikkei has risen; however, while below 38000, the outlook remains bearish towards 36000-35000. Shanghai, as expected, had come down to 3318; now it’s heading towards 3350. As long as 3320 holds, a rise towards 3400-3450 remains on the table.

The Dow (43840.91, +1.39%) has risen sharply on Friday, but well within the 43000-44000 range. A strong follow-through rise above 44000 from here will reduce the danger of falling below 43000. It can then take the Dow up to 45000. Wait and watch.

DAX (22551.43, 0%) is oscillating between 22000 and 23000. The immediate outlook is unclear. While above 22000, the bias is bullish to break 23000 and move higher.

Nifty (22124.70, -1.86%) has declined below 22500 contrary to our expectation. The view of seeing a rise back to 23000 and higher has gone wrong. While below 22500, a fall to 22000-21700 can be seen now.

Nikkei (37579.97, +1.14%) has moved up but remains below 38000. Further, while below 38000, a fall towards 36000-35000 looks possible.

Shanghai (3345.1070, +0.72%) has risen after testing the support of 3320. Going ahead, while it sustains above 3330, a rise towards 3400-3450 looks possible.

Crude prices are holding above their immediate support levels and are expected to remain within a range of $ 76-$ 72 (Brent) and $ 72-$ 68 (WTI) for some time. Gold has fallen below $ 2900 but has support near $ 2850, which could hold and push the price back towards $ 2900-$ 2950 in the near term. Silver and Copper are likely to rise towards $ 32.5-$ 33.5 and $ 4.7-$ 4.8 respectively, as long as they remain above $ 31 and $ 4.5. Natural Gas appears to be bearish and could fall towards $ 3.6-$ 3.4.

Brent ($ 73.50) and WTI ($ 70.40) are holding above their immediate support levels. As long as these supports hold, a range of $ 76-$ 72 and $ 72-$ 68 respectively is expected to remain in place for some time.

Gold ($ 2882.40) has broken below its immediate support but has interim support near the $ 2850 level. While this support holds, we expect a bounce back towards $ 2900-$ 2950 in the near term, eventually rising towards $ 3000. Our view remains bullish for the coming weeks, with the outlook only turning bearish if the price falls below $ 2850.

Silver ($ 31.92) tested its immediate support on Friday. While this support holds, it could gradually rise towards $ 32.5-$ 33.5 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.5975) fell to a low of $ 4.51 on Friday. It is currently holding above $ 4.5, and as long as this level holds, we maintain our expectation of a rise to $ 4.7-$ 4.8 in the near term. A break below $ 4.5, if seen, could be limited to $ 4.4 on the downside.

Natural Gas ($ 3.7670) has broken below its immediate support, contrary to our expectations of a rise towards $ 4.2-$ 4.4. As long as the decline persists, the price could fall further towards $ 3.6-$ 3.4 in the near term.

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
… Exp 48.3 … Expected 48.9 … Previous 48.7

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
… Exp 49.8 … Expected 50.4 … Previous 50.1

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
… Exp 57.9 … Expected 57.1 … Previous 57.7

8:30 14:00 CH PMI
… Exp 47.0 … Expected 48.3 … Previous 47.5

9:00 14:30 EU PMI
… Exp – … Expected 47.3 … Previous 46.6

9:30 15:00 UK PMI
… Exp 48.9 … Expected 46.4 … Previous 48.3

10:00 15:30 EU Core CPI Flash Estimate (YoY)
… Exp 2.2% … Expected – … Previous 2.5%

14:30 20:00 CA PMI
… Exp – … Expected – … Previous 51.6

15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
… Exp 51.0 … Expected – … Previous 50.9

DATA FRIDAY
—————
12:00 17:30 IN GDP
… Exp 6.6% … Expected 6.3% … Previous 5.6% …Actual 6.2%

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
… Exp 1.7% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.9%

13:30 19:00 US PCE M/M
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US Core PCE
… Exp 0.3% … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 CA GDP
… Exp – … Expected 0.3% … Previous -0.2% …Actual 0.2%