Donald Trump has announced new tariffs on 69 countries, set to go into effect on 07-Aug. As a result, the Dollar Index has moved up further and can head towards 101 soon. The Euro and EURINR are looking bearish towards 1.13 and 99 respectively. EURJPY bounced from 169.74 itself and if sustained, can test 173-174 as well. USDJPY and USDCNY have risen past 150 and 7.20 respectively and both the pairs have the scope to extend the ongoing rise towards 152-155 and 7.2250-7.2500 respectively. The Aussie has slipped below 0.6450 and can fall further to 0.640-0.635. The Pound is coming off as expected and the lower levels of 1.30 or even 1.28 can be tested in the medium term. USDINR has cooled down a bit as anticipated. While below 87.75, a further dip to 87 is possible. IN Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing, US NFP, US Unemployment and the US Avg hrly Earnings are some of the important data releases scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.767) is rising in line with our view and can soon test our target of 101 as well. Thereafter, whether the rise extends further to 102 and higher or a pull back happens in the near term will have to be seen.

EURUSD (1.1413) and EURINR (100.0289) can extend the ongoing fall to 1.13 and 99 respectively before attempting to rise back again. Euro has deeper support at 1.2 as well but a confirmed break below 1.13 will be needed to bring 1.12 into picture.

EURJPY (170.24) was anticipated to fall towards 168 but the cross limited the downside to 169.72 and rose back sharply. While the rise sustains, a further test to 173-174 can happen before halting. The immediate downside could be limited to 171.

BOJ Kept the interest rates unchanged at 0.50%. Dollar-Yen (150.83) has finally risen past 150 and now if sustained, can extend it further to 152 or even at the higher resistance coming at 155 as well. Immediate resistance turned support is coming at 149, above which the pair can continue to rise further.

USDCNY (7.2078) has ended its consolidation zone of 7.14-7.20 as a break past 7.20 has happened. Now, while above 7.20, a further rise to 7.2250-7.2500 can happen in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6430) has slipped below 0.6450 and failure to see an immediate bounce back can drag it further to 0.640-0.635 levels in the near term.

Pound (1.3194) as cautioned has breached below 1.32 and can now extend the ongoing fall to 1.30 or even 1.28 in the medium term.

USDINR (87.55) tested 87.7425 before heading towards 87.505. Going ahead, if the fall sustains, a test to 87 can happen as well. Thereafter, whether the pair bounces back again or extends the fall to 86.50 will have to be seen. Note, any breach past 87.75 if seen, can open the doors for 88 and higher levels in the near term.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. The bias will remain positive to see more rise while they sustain above their immediate support. The US NFP and the unemployment data release today will need a close watch. The German yields have dipped slightly. But the view remains bullish and the yields can rise back again. The 10Yr GoI has come down from near the upper end of the range. For now, the sideways range continues to remain intact.

The US 10Yr (4.38%) and 30Yr (4.90%) Treasury yields sustain higher. That keeps alive the chances of seeing a rise to 4.55%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr). A fall below 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) is needed to negate that rise and drag the yields down to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.75%-4.7% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.69%) and 30Yr (3.17%) yields have dipped slightly. While above 2.6% (10Yr) and 3.15%-3.10% (30Yr), the bias will remain bullish to see a rise to 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI 06.33 GS 2035 (6.3735%) touched a high of 6.3909% and has come down. That keeps intact the 6.3%-6.4% range.

The Dow Jones declined sharply dragging down other major equity indices as well. While the Dow can test 44000-43800, Dax can also fall to 24000 before attempting to rebound. Nifty, Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped as well and could initially test supports near 24600-24400, 40500-40000 and 3550 respectively before a bounce is seen eventually in the medium term.

The Dow (44130.98, -0.74%) has declined well.The index can test 44000-43800 region initially while the upside can be capped at 44500 for the near to medium term.

DAX (24065.47, -0.81%) rose initially on higher EU GDP figures but later declined to close below 24100. Overall the broader trade region of 24000-24800 is expected to hold for the near term.

Nifty (24768.35, -0.35%) has declined below 24800 again yesterday. The index could continue to trade within the narrower range of 24600-25000 and broader range of 24400-25250 for the next few weeks. Only a break on either side of the broader range would decide on further medium term direction.

Nikkei (40845.61, -0.55%) trades slightly lower today. The BOJ kept rates unchanged yesterday and revised the inflation forecast higher. Overall while above support at 40000, Nikkei can soon rise back towards 41000-42000.

Shanghai (3572.51, -0.020%) fell sharply after an NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) report showed lower factory activity in China for July with the manufacturing PMI at 49.3. However, we may expect the dip to limit itself to 3550 before attempting to rebound in the medium term.

Brent and WTI have dipped unexpectedly but are still expected to rise towards $ 75 and $ 72 respectively. Gold remains bullish above $ 3300, targeting $ 3400–$ 3450, while Silver’s break below $ 37 signals a bearish move towards $ 36–$ 35. Copper continues its downward trend towards $ 4.20–$ 4.00. Natural gas, despite rising above $ 3, maintains a bearish outlook with a target of $ 2.70.

Brent ($ 71.76) and WTI ($ 69.31) have dipped contrary to our expectations, but the outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 75 and $ 72 respectively in the near term.

Gold ($ 3333.50) is trading above $ 3300, and as long as it sustains above this level, we maintain our view of a rise towards $ 3400–$ 3450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 36.60) has broken further below the support at $ 37, testing a low of $ 36.28 yesterday. The outlook now appears bearish, with a potential decline towards $ 36–$ 35 in the coming weeks.

Copper ($ 4.4170) continues its bearish momentum and is likely to target $ 4.20–$ 4.00 in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.09) has risen above $ 3, but the overall outlook remains bearish, with a possible fall towards $ 2.70 in the near term.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
…Expectation 2.5 …Previous 2.5

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
49.5 …Expectation 48.8 …Previous 50.1

1:30 07:00 AU PPI
…Previous 0.9

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
50.9 …Expectation 50.2 …Previous 50.4

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Expectation 59.2 …Previous 58.4

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
…Expectation 49.8 …Previous 49.5

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
48.2 …Expectation 48.2 …Previous 47.7

9:00 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
2.3 …Expectation 2.0 …Previous 2.0

12:30 18:00 US NFP
130 …Expectation 108 …Previous 147

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectation 4.2 …Previous 4.1

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.1 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 45.6

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
48.4 …Expectation 49.5 …Previous 49.0

DATA YESTERDAY

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Expectation 0.50 …Previous 0.50 …Actual 0.50

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
…Expectation 6.3 …Previous 6.3 …Actual 6.2

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
…Expectation 0.2 …Previous -0.4 …Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 US PCE M/M
0.2 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE
0.2 …Expectation 0.3 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3

{12:30 18:00 CA GDP
…Expectation -0.1 …Previous -0.1 …Actual -0.1