Most currency pairs have recovered from the sharp movements seen over the last 2 days. There can be mild stability just now before again moving sharply in the medium term. The Dollar Index has recovered to dip below 99 but while above 98, scope for 101-101.5 remain intact. Euro can trade between 1.15-1.1750 for now. EURINR has moved above 107 and can test 108-108.5 before attempting to decline to 105 in the longer run. EURJPY could head towards support near 180 on a sustained trade below 183. USDJPY is trading above 156. If the DXY tests 101 or higher, USDJPY can rise to 159/160 soon. USDCNY trades above 6.85 and needs to sustain higher for a further rise to 6.90/95. The Aussie can trade within 0.69-0.72 region. Pound has recovered and is trading above 1.33. Only a dip below 1.33 can drag it lower towards 1.31/30. USDINR is likely to trade within 92-92.30 region. A break below 92 if seen can take it to support at 91.70. upside targets of 92.50-93 remain intact.

Dollar Index (98.803) has dipped recovering a bit from the sharp rally over theast 2 days. While above 98, we keep intact the upside chances of 101-101.50.

EURUSD (1.1630) could be ranged within the 1.15-1.1750 region with decent changes of a downside break to test 1.14 in the medium term.

EURINR (107.1223) tested 106.10 yesterday before recovering well. It has moved above 107 and needs to sustain for a further rise towards 108-108.5. Else it could again become vulnerable to fall to 106/105 region in the medium term. Watch price action near 107.

EURJPY (182.28) is trading above 182 now but is currently in a downtrend and has room for a decline to 180 before pausing for a reversal towards 185.

Dollar-Yen (156.73) has support at 156 above which a rise to 160 looks likely. The rise would be faster in case of a faster rise in the Dollar index. Else we may initially se a corrective dip before attempting higher levels.

USDCNY (6.8841) could have scope for bullishness as long as it stays above 6.85 and rises past 6.90. Failure to hold above 6.90 can keep downside risks intact of a potential break below 6.85 towards 6.80/75. Watch price action near 6.85.

Aussie (0.7068) is trading above 0.70. There is support at 0.69 which is likely to hold in the near term and keep the trade range within 0.69-0.72.

Pound (1.3368) broke below the support at 1.33 and dipped to test 1.3253 but has managed to rise from there. While above 1.33, Pound can again rise towards 1.35 but there is fair scope for a break below 1.33 again which can make the currency vulnerable to decline to 1.31/30 in the medium term.

USDINR (92.1550) closed at 92.1550 yesterday. If it sustains above 92, there is fair scope for a rise towards 92.50-93 in the upcoming days. A break below 92, if seen could limit immediate downside to support at 91.70.

The US Treasury yields have moved up further. That keeps intact our bullish view. The yields can rise more. The US jobs data (NFP and Unemployment rate) release tomorrow will need a close watch to see if it can give further push for the yields. The German yields sustain higher but stable. The view remains positive. There is room to rise further. The 10Yr GoI seems to be struggling to get a sustained rise. That keeps alive the chances of getting a dip first in the near term before the expected rise happens.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and 30Yr (4.73%) Treasury yields have moved up further. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.75%) and 30Yr (3.40%) yields sustain higher but stable. The outlook is positive. There is room for a rise to 2.9% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) from here.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6732%) has come down sharply from a high of 6.7267%. That keeps the chances alive of seeing 6.65% and 6.6% first before the expected rise to 6.8% happens.

Dow and DAX have bounced in line with expectations but remain vulnerable to further declines while holding below key resistance levels. Nifty tested the upside but closed lower and must hold above 24,000 to avoid a deeper fall towards 23,000–22,000. Nikkei has also seen a bounce but while it stays below 57,000, another decline towards 54,000–53,500 remains likely. Meanwhile, Shanghai has held support near 4,050 and may continue to move within the 4,200–4,050 range for some time.

Dow (48,660, -0.28%) has bounced to a high of 48,916 in line with our expectation. However, while it holds below 49,000 it remains vulnerable to a fall towards 47,500–47,000.

DAX (24,207, -0.13%) bounced to a high of 24,318 yesterday. As long as it holds below 24,500 the view remains bearish towards 23,500–23,250 in the near term.

Nifty (24,480.50, -1.55%) tested 24,602.45 on the upside but closed lower at 24,480.50 for the day. While support at 24,000 holds, the index can recover in the coming days. However, a break below 24,000, if seen, can drag it lower towards 23,000–22,000. Watch price action near 24,000.

Nikkei (55,680, -1.23%) bounced from the low of 53,680 and rose to close higher at 56,375 yesterday. As long as it holds below 57,000 a further decline towards 54,000–53,500 remains likely in the near term.

Shanghai (4,105.44, +0.51%) tested support near 4,050 yesterday and bounced to open higher at 4,109 today. As mentioned, a range of 4,200–4,050 can hold for some time.

Crude prices have dipped yesterday but have opened higher again amid ongoing Middle East tensions, keeping the near term outlook bullish. Gold has held above the $ 5,000 support and can rise further towards $ 5,250–$ 5,300. Silver also remains strong with room to move up towards $ 86–$ 88. Copper has bounced but remains vulnerable to a fall towards $ 5.6–$ 5.5 while it stays below $ 6. Natural Gas has dipped again and needs a sustained break above $ 3 to rise towards $ 3.1, otherwise it may continue to range between $ 3.0–$ 2.8 for some time.

Brent ($ 82.97) dipped to a low of $ 80.30 yesterday but has opened higher today at $ 82.24. With ongoing tensions in the Middle East, the outlook remains bullish towards $ 86–$ 88 in the near term.

WTI ($ 76.47) dipped to $ 73.28 yesterday but has opened higher today at $ 76.15. A rise towards $ 78–$ 80 can be seen in the near term.

Gold ($ 5,185.40) the support near $ 5,000 has held and prices bounced to a high of $ 5,218 yesterday. A further rise towards $ 5,250–$ 5,300 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 84.87) has bounced back in line with our expectation and can rise further towards $ 86–$ 88 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.9220) has bounced back, but while it remains below $ 6, it is vulnerable to a decline towards $ 5.6–$ 5.5 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9620) dipped to $ 2.8910 yesterday. A sustained break above $ 3 is needed to see the earlier mentioned rise towards $ 3.1, else it can range between $ 3.0–$ 2.8 for some time.

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 3.9 …Previous 3.4

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Expectations 58.4 …Previous 58.5

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous -0.5

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -19.4 …Actual -15.6

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 AU GDP
…Expectations 0.7 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.8

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH CPI
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.0 …Actual 0.1

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Unemp
…Expectations 6.2 …Previous 6.2 …Actual 6.1

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US ADP Emp
…Expectations 49.0 …Previous 22.0 …Actual 63