The Dollar Index trades below 99 but while above 98, scope for 101-101.5 remains intact. Euro can trade between 1.15-1.1750 for now. EURINR has dipped below 107 and can trade within 106-108 region for sometime. EURJPY could head towards 185 first if it sustains above 183 contrary to our expectations of testing support near 180. USDJPY is trading well above 157. If the DXY rises towards 101 or higher, USDJPY can rise to 159/160 soon. USDCNY trades above 6.90 and needs to sustain higher for a further rise to 6.92/95. The Aussie can trade within 0.69-0.72 region. Pound has recovered and is trading above 1.33. Only a dip below 1.33 can drag it lower towards 1.31/30. USDINR is likely to trade within 91-91.70 region as it opened with a gap down yesterday on possible RBI intervention. A break above 92, if seen, can bring in 92 or higher targets into the picture.

Dollar Index (98.984) is holding above 98. We keep intact the upside chances of 101-101.50 for the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1615) could be ranged within the 1.15-1.1750 region with decent changes of a downside break to test 1.14 in the medium term.

EURINR (106.4273) has again dipped below 107. Trade between 106 and 108 can be possible in the near term.

EURJPY (182.98) is trading well above 182. A break above 183 if sustains can initially test 185 before pausing for a reversal. Our earlier call for a possible decline to 180 may not happen in that case.

Dollar-Yen (157.51) could rally towards 160 while above 157. Immediate support is seen at 156.

USDCNY (6.9029) has risen above 6.90 and needs to sustain higher for continued upmove towards 6.92.

Aussie (0.7034) is trading above 0.70. Near term trade range of 0.69-0.72 may hold.

Pound (1.3368) is holding above 1.33 and can rise towards 1.35. Only a break below 1.33, if seen, can make the currency vulnerable to decline to 1.31/30 in the medium term.

USDINR (91.6050) opened with a Gap down yesterday possibly on intervention from the RBI. For the near term, we may expect 91-91.70 region to hold. A break above 91.70, if seen can open chances for a rally towards 92 or higher.

The US Treasury and the German yields are moving higher in line with our expectation, They both have room to rise further from here. The US jobs data (NFP and Unemployment rate) release today will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has come down. The near-term dip that was anticipated is happening first. The broader uptrend can resume after this.
The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.75%) Treasury yields are retaining their momentum and are continuing to move up. The yields are heading up towards 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.8%-4.85% (30Yr) as expected.

The German 10Yr (2.84%) and 30Yr (3.43%) yields have risen further. The rise to 2.9% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6467%) has come down below 6.65%. So, the fall to 6.6% can now happen first before the uptrend resumes to target 6.8% on the upside.

Global equities are showing mixed momentum. Dow and DAX have declined in line with expectations and can extend their fall towards 47,500–47,000 and 23,500–23,250 respectively. Nikkei has also moved lower after testing 53,975 and may fall further towards 53,500–53,000. Nifty remains firm after testing 24,854 and can rise further towards 24,900–25,000 in the near term. Shanghai has moved up but is likely to remain range bound between 4,200–4,050 for some time.

Dow (48,051, +0.15%) fell sharply to a low of 47,613 yesterday in line with our expectation and can decline further towards 47,500–47,000.

DAX (23,963, +0.76%) fell sharply to a low of 23,693 in line with our expectations and can decline further towards 23,500–23,250 in the near term.

Nifty (24,765.90, +1.17%) rose to test a high of 24,854.20 in line with our expectation and can move further up towards 24,900–25,000 in the near term.

Nikkei (55,420, +1.54%) declined to a low of 53,975 in line with our expectation and can fall further towards 53,500–53,000.

Shanghai (4,117.84, +0.22%) has risen and can sustain within the 4,200–4,050 range for some time.

Crude prices have surged sharply as the Middle East conflict intensifies and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts energy shipments. Brent remains bullish towards $ 88-$ 90 and WTI towards $ 84-$ 86 in the near term. Gold and silver have dipped but remain supported above $ 5,000 and can rise towards $ 5,250-$ 5,300 and $ 86-$ 88 respectively. Copper continues to weaken and can fall towards $ 5.6-$ 5.5 in the coming sessions. Natural gas may remain range-bound between $ 3.0 and $ 2.8 for some time before a clearer breakout occurs.

Brent ($ 84.12) has surged to a high of $ 86.28 as the war in the Middle East entered its sixth day on Thursday with no sign of resolution. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, halting most energy shipments from the Persian Gulf. It can remain bullish towards $ 88-$ 90 in the near term until any further de-escalation is seen.

WTI ($ 79.80) rose above our expected levels and tested a high of $ 82.16 yesterday. The price remains bullish towards $ 84-$ 86 in the near term as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.

Gold ($ 5,137.80) has dipped, but while it holds above the support near $ 5,000, the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 5,250-$ 5,300 in the coming sessions.

Silver ($ 84.06) has dipped, but the outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 86-$ 88 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.8660) has dipped in line with our expectations and can decline towards $ 5.6-$ 5.5 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 2.99) can trade within a range of $ 3.0-$ 2.8 for some time.

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU GDP
…Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US NFP
…Kshtij 14 …Expectations 58 …Previous 130

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Expectations 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
…Kshtij 0.4 …Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.4

DATA YESTERDAY
================
GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Expectations 3.9 …Previous 3.4 …Actual 2.6

GMT 10:00 IST 15:30 EU Retail Sales
…Expectations 0.2 …Previous -0.5 …Actual -0.1