Most currencies look stable today after earlier volatile sessions this week. The Dollar Index has crucial resistance at 101-101.50 which can be tested followed by a decline in the medium term. Euro can rise slowly while above 1.15 towards 1.1750. EURINR is rising towards 107/108 while above 105; EURJPY and USDJPY can trade within 180-185 region and 156-160 region respectively. USDCNY has come down towards 6.86 and could test 6.85 again in the coming days. Aussie and Pound are headed towards 0.71/72 and 1.35/36 respectively. The USDINR may trade within 91.50-92.50 region for the near few weeks.

Dollar Index (98.844) has been volatile since the beginning of the month. On the charts, 101-101.5 is a crucial resistance from where a sharp decline can be seen later.

EURUSD (1.1625) seems to be holding well above 1.15 and a rise to 1.1735-1.1750 can be expected before another leg of downside is seen. 

EURINR (106.8248) has risen. With support near 105.50/105 and upside target being 107/108, we may expect a broad range of 105-108 to hold for the near term.

EURJPY (183.98) is likely to trade within a broader range of 180-185 in the coming days with possibility of testing either sides of the mentioned range first.

Dollar-Yen (158.21)   has risen above 158 again. We may expect trade within the broad 156-160 region for the near term.

USDCNY (6.8650) has declined as expected. It would be crucial to see if the pair declines further below 6.85 or bounces higher in the coming days.

Aussie (0.7148) and Pound (1.3442)   continue to trade higher and can test 0.72+ and 1.35/36 respectively.

USDINR (91.81) has dipped below 92 to close lower. There is scope for testing 91.50 on the downside before attempting to rise again later.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. For now, they can oscillate in a narrow range. The US CPI data release today will need a close watch. Need to see if it can give a push for the yields to break their resistance. The German Yields sustain higher and can go up further from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below its immediate support and has come back into its previous range.

The US 10Yr (4.14%) and 30Yr (4.78%) Treasury yields have bounced back. For now, 4.08%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.85% (30Yr) looks likely to be the range for the near-term. We will have to wait for some time to get clarity.

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.44%) yields sustain higher. The upside remains open test 2.9% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) first. The price action thereafter will need a watch.

The 10Yr GoI (6.6737%) has dipped below 6.68% and has come back into its 6.64%-6.73% range.

Global equities show mixed signals. The Dow looks stable with a possible corrective rise towards 48000–49000 but remains vulnerable to a fall towards 46500–46000 while below 49000. DAX needs a sustained break above 24000 to move higher towards 24400–24600 otherwise the downside towards 22500–22000 remains valid. Nifty is holding above the key 24000 support and can rise towards 24400–24600 while above this level, whereas a break below it could drag the index down to 23500–23000. Nikkei has bounced back and can rise towards 56000 with a further break opening 57000–59000. Shanghai may continue to move sideways within the 4200–4050 range for now.

Dow (47922, +0.37%) looks stable and can see a corrective rise towards 48000-49000 in the near term. However, as long as it holds below 49000, our view remains intact for a fall towards 46500-46000 or lower.

DAX (23950, +0.01%) has bounced back but a sustained break above 24000 is needed for it to move higher towards 24400-24600. Otherwise, while below 24000, our earlier mentioned fall towards 22500-22000 remains valid for now.

Nifty (24,261.60, +0.97%) is holding above the immediate support at 24000 and while it stays above this level, a rise to 24400-24600 can be seen in the coming sessions. Alternatively, a sustained break below 24000 could drag the index down to 23500-23000.

Nikkei (55360, +0.97%) has bounced back and can rise further towards 56000 in the coming sessions. Thereafter, a break above this level is needed for it to move higher towards 57000-59000. Otherwise, it can dip back to 54000-52000.

Shanghai (4116, -0.16%) can sustain within the 4200-4050 range for some time.

Crude prices remain highly volatile as easing Middle East tensions and discussions about a possible G-7 oil stockpile release triggered a sharp fall in prices, and while the broader direction looks uncertain for now. Brent can dip towards $ 80–$ 75 and WTI towards $ 75–$ 70 if the downside extends further. In contrast, precious metals remain firm with Gold rising above $ 5200 and likely to move towards $ 5250–$ 5300. Silver can extend gains towards $ 90–$ 92. Copper is holding higher but may remain range bound between $ 6.00 and $ 5.60 until a clearer breakout occurs. Natural Gas is slipping but can bounce back towards $ 3.20–$ 3.50 as long as it holds above the $ 3.00 support.

Brent ($ 87.86) plunged to a low of $ 81.16 yesterday after President Trump said the Iran war could end soon, while discussions are underway about a possible coordinated G-7 release of oil stockpiles. The market remains highly volatile and the direction looks uncertain for now, but if the situation in the Middle East does not escalate further, a dip towards $ 80-$ 75 can be seen in the near term.

WTI ($ 83.29) fell to a low of $ 76.73 but bounced back from there to close at $ 83.45 yesterday. Tensions appear to be easing in the Middle East, which is creating selling pressure and pushing prices lower. A sustained break below $ 80 can take it further down towards $ 75-$ 70, but due to high volatility the direction looks unclear for now.

Gold ($ 5,219.70) has risen above $ 5200 in line with our expectations and can move higher towards $ 5250-$ 5300 in the near term.

Silver ($ 88.86) has risen and can move higher towards $ 90-$ 92 in the near term.

Copper ($ 5.9295) has risen and can remain in a range of $ 6.00-$ 5.60 for some time until a breakout on either side provides clearer directional cues.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0290) is falling but while it holds above $ 3.00, a bounce back towards $ 3.20-$ 3.50 remains possible in the near term.

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
…Expectations 0.3 …Previous 0.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.1 …Expectations 0.2 …Previous 0.3

DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Expectations 0.3% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.3%

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
…Previous 4174 …Expectations 3890 …Previous 3910 …Actual