The Dollar Index has dipped within 99-98 region while the Euro has risen above 1.17. The EURINR is headed again towards 112-112.50 while the EURJPY and USDJPY may rise towards 185/186 and 158/159 respectively. USDCNY has risen too and could test 6.8550. Pound has scope to rise above 1.36 towards 1.37. Aussie can test 0.73 or higher in the near term while trading well above 0.72. USDINR tested 95.4350 but managed to close lower. Some more fall towards 95-94.80 is possible in the near term.
Dollar Index (98.262) has dipped slightly but may trade within 98-99 region for the near term.
EURUSD (1.1722) has risen above 1.17 again on dip in the dollar index. Overall near term range of 1.1650-1.18 may hold.
EURINR (111.3946) has bounced back well after a brief decline yesterday. It can head towards 112-112.50 while above 111.
EURJPY (184.81) has broken above 184 and could now be headed towards 185/186 in the next few sessions. View is bullish above 184.
Dollar-Yen (157.65) has been rising slowly after the sharp decline due to intervention last week. A break above 158, if seen in the coming sessions will be bullish again towards 158/159 kevels.
USDCNY (6.8204) could again attempt to rise towards 6.855 while above 6.82.
Aussie (0.7229) has risen as expected. Note that the price has bounced back well over the last 2 sessions and if the momentum holds, it can target 0.73+ levels in the medium term.
Pound (1.3577) has risen well above 1.35. A break past 1.36 if seen will open upside towards 1.37/38 soon.
USDINR (95.2850) tested 95.4350 before closing lower. We may expect some more dip today towards 95 and slightly lower levels of 94.80 in the next few sessions.
The US Treasury Yields have dipped slightly. Supports are there to limit the downside if they fall more from here. Broader picture is positive. There is room to rise more. The German Yields remain stable. Outlook is bullish. But a near-term dip cannot be ruled out before the yields move higher. The 10Yr GoI is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. That keeps the chances alive of seeing a dip to test its support before a further rise happens.
The US 10Yr (4.42%) and 30Yr (4.99%) Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The bullish view remains intact for a rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr). Any further dip can find support at 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr).
The German 10Yr (3.07%) and 30Yr (3.58%) yields remain stable. Outlook is bullish to see a rise to 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.7% (30Yr). But will a dip to 3%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.5% (30Yr) happen first before the rise still remains a question.
The 10Yr GoI (7.0184%) is struggling to rise past 7.05%. However, the bias remains positive to see a rise to 7.1% and higher. This rise may happen either from here itself or after a dip to 6.95%-6.9%.
Dow has bounced back and may remain within the 50000-49000 range for now. DAX is also likely to stay range bound between 23500-25000. Nifty has regained 24000 and can rise towards 24150-24350 while holding above this level, within the broader 24500-23500 range. Nikkei has turned bullish after breaking above 60000 and can rise towards 61500-62000. Shanghai continues to strengthen and may move higher towards 4200 in the near term.
Dow (49517, +0.21%) has bounced back contrary to our expectations. While below 50000, a range of 50000-49000 can hold for some time.
DAX (24598, +0.42%) can sustain within a range of 23500-25000 for some time.
Nifty (24,032.80, -0.36%) managed to regain 24000 after testing a low of 23882 yesterday. It needs to sustain above 24000 to rise further towards 24150-24350 in the near term. Overall, a broad range of 24500-23500 can hold for some time.
Nikkei (61115.20, +0.78%) has surged above 60000 contrary to our expectations, and if it sustains above this level, a further rise towards 61500-62000 can be seen in the coming sessions.
Shanghai (4157.2, +1.11%) has seen a gap up opening at 4135 and is moving higher. It can continue to rise towards 4200 in the near term.
Brent may continue to trade between $ 100-$ 120 and WTI within $ 95-$ 115 until clearer direction emerges. Gold and Silver have bounced back, but the broader bias still points lower towards $ 4500 and $ 70 respectively. Copper has turned positive above $ 6.00 and can rise towards $ 6.10-$ 6.20 if the breakout sustains. Natural Gas is likely to remain range bound within $ 2.80-$ 2.55 for now.
Brent ($ 108.15) has fallen back sharply. The market may remain volatile and a broad range of $ 100-$ 120 can hold for some time until further directional clarity emerges.
WTI ($ 100.63) has fallen back. The market remains highly volatile and can remain within a range of $ 95-$ 115 for some time.
Gold ($ 4640.30) has bounced back contrary to our expectations. The bias remains intact for a fall towards $ 4500 or even lower in the near term.
Silver ($ 75.16) has bounced back, but the view remains for a decline towards $ 70 in the near term.
Copper ($ 6.06) has risen above $ 6.00 and needs to sustain above this level to move higher towards $ 6.10-$ 6.20.
Natural Gas ($ 2.7670) can trade within a $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for some time.
GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -27.9
GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Market 57.90 …Previous 57.50
GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 US ADP Emp
…Market 90.00 …Previous 62.00
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBA Meeting
…Market 4.35 …Previous 4.10 …Actual 4.35
GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 CH CPI
…Market 0.30 …Previous 0.31
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Trade Balance
-67.61 …Market -59.08 …Previous -57.35
GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
579 …Market 668 …Previous 587