The Dollar Index has bounced today but can have scope for a dip while below 98.50. The EURUSD can trade within the 1.1650-1.1780/1.18 region for the next few sessions. EURJPY has risen today but could still have scope for a fall while below 184.50. USDJPY on the other hand needs to see a sustained break above 157.30 to rise further towards 158+ else can fall back to 156.50-156. USDCNY could test 6.80, thereafter whether it would bounce back or decline lower is to be seen. Pound has dipped below 1.36. A rise back above 1.36 can be eventually bullish for the currency. Aussie can test 0.73 or higher in the near term while above 0.72. USDINR declined to 94.05 exactly in line with our expectations but faster on intervention from the RBI. But now, we need to see if 94 holds as immediate support or allows for a further dip to lower support at 93.50 (more likely).

Dollar Index (98.242) has bounced today to trade above 98 after a brief dip to 97.625 yesterday. There can be a very near-term resistance at 98.50 below which the index can still have scope for a rejection towards 97.50.

EURUSD (1.1730) is likely to have a resistance near 1.1780-1.18 region below which the currency could be inclined towards falling to 1.1650 again. Immediate range of 1.1650-1.1780/1.18 can hold for the upcoming sessions.

EURINR (110.5865) is trading lower today. Contrary to our expectations of a rise towards 112-112.50, the pair seems to have capped its immediate upside to 111.70 and could be headed lower instead towards 110-109.

EURJPY (184.09) is trading higher today after trading below 184 yesterday. There is interim resistance near 184.25 below which there can be chances of a dip back to 183-182 region. Only a sustained rise above 184.25-184.50, can become bullish for a rise back towards 186-188 region in the longer run.

Dollar-Yen (156.95) is likely to dip towards 156.50-156 while below 157.30.

USDCNY (6.8029) continues to dip extending the fall seen yesterday. Failure to sustain above 6.80 will open up chances of a decisive decline towards 6.78/75.

Aussie (0.7210) has dipped slightly from higher levels seen yesterday. While above 0.72, it can target 0.73 or higher. Failure to hold above 0.72 can take it down towards 0.71.

Pound (1.3559) has dipped back below 1.36 for now but a decisive break past 1.36, if seen, will open upside chances of rising towards 1.37/38 soon.

USDINR (94.2550) declined sharply from the intra-day high of 94.9025 to 94.05 on intervention by the RBI, falling exactly as expected. Immediate support is seen at 94 but there is also some scope for a possible break below 94 to test lower support at 93.50 before again bouncing back towards 94.50 or higher.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have risen back very well. Support is holding well for both of them in line with our expectation. That keeps intact our broader bullish view. We can expect both the German and US Treasury yields to go higher in the coming weeks. The US unemployment data release today will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has bounced slightly but may not sustain. It remains weak to dip more in the near-term before a fresh rise happens.

The US 10Yr (4.39%) and 30Yr (4.99%) Treasury yields have risen back. The support at 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.9%-4.85% is holding well as expected. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing a rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (3.01%) and 30Yr (3.55%) yields have bounced back from their support. While above 3%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.5%-3.45% (30Yr) the outlook is bullish to see a rise to 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.9328%) has bounced slightly but still looks weak. While below 7%, a test of 6.9%-6.85% is still possible before a fresh rise happens.

Dow needs a sustained break above 50000 to rise towards 51000-51500, otherwise the broader 50000-49000 range may continue. DAX has corrected sharply but remains supported above 24250 with chances of a rebound towards 25250-25500. Nifty has pulled back after testing 24500 and may continue to trade within the broad 24500-23500 range. Nikkei remains firm above 60000 with upside towards 63500-64000. Shanghai also continues to hold a positive bias towards 4200 in the near term.

Dow (49774, +0.15%) needs a sustained break above 50000 to move higher towards 51000-51500, while failure to break past this level would bring back the earlier mentioned 50000-49000 range.

DAX (24550, -0.79%) has reversed sharply towards 24500 contrary to our expectations. While above 24250, the chances of a bounce back towards our earlier mentioned levels of 25250-25500 remain intact for now.

Nifty (24,326.65, -0.02%) has fallen back after testing a high of 24482.10. As mentioned earlier, a broad range of 24500-23500 can hold for some time.

Nikkei (62340.20, +0.14%) remains above 60000 and is inching up gradually. It can rise further towards 63500-64000.

Shanghai (4169.2, -0.25%) can rise towards 4200 in the near term.

Brent needs a sustained break below $ 100 to fall towards $ 95-$ 90, while WTI must hold below $ 95 to decline further towards $ 90-$ 85. Gold is likely to rise towards $ 4800-$ 4900 while above $ 4500, and Silver extending gains towards $ 85-$ 90 while above $ 70. Copper remains positive above $ 6 and can rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30. Natural Gas is likely to stay range bound within the $ 2.80-$ 2.55 zone for now.

Brent ($ 101.80) fell to a low of $ 96.03 and closed higher yesterday. A sustained break below $ 100 is needed to see a decline towards $ 95-$ 90.

WTI ($ 96.23) fell to a low of $ 89.85 yesterday and closed higher. A sustained break below $ 95 is needed to see a further decline towards $ 90-$ 85.

Gold ($ 4717.70) can rise towards $ 4800-$ 4900 in the coming weeks while above $ 4500.

Silver ($ 80.11) has risen above $ 80 in line with our expectations and can move further higher towards $ 85-$ 90 while above $ 70.

Copper ($ 6.16) has reversed after failing to break past $ 6.20 yesterday. While above $ 6, we retain our view of a rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30 in the coming sessions.

Natural Gas ($ 2.7870) can trade within a $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for some time.

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