Recovery in the Dollar Index, USDJPY, Euro and EURJPY from sharp movements seen over the past few sessions looks relieving today. The Dollar Index can rise back towards 100.50 while Euro can fall back towards 1.14. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise back towards 159 and 184 respectively while the recovery continues to the upside. EURINR is holding below resistance at 110.30 while Aussie and Pound are attempting to rise in the very near term before they can see a correction. USDCNY and USDINR quotes higher. A rise to 6.76/78 and 95.50/75 could be on the cards for the near term. The RBI policy meeting is due tomorrow were the markets expect the repo rate to be kept unchanged.

Dollar Index (99.983) has managed to bounce back from 99.41 keeping the near term uptrend intact with possibility of rising back towards 100.50 or higher in the coming days while the EURUSD (1.1509) coming off sharply to 1.15. With limited upside to 1.16, Euro can again attempt to test the 1.14/1.13 region soon.

Dollar-Yen (157.68) has bounced back well and can rise to test 159 in the near term. Thereafter, the spot could spend some time below 159 before eventually rising higher.

EURINR (109.7819) is likely to trade below crucial resistance at 110.30 and head towards 109.

EURJPY (181.51) has risen well above 180 indicating a rise towards 184 once again in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (6.7568) has recovered well. While it sustains above 6.75, we may expect trade within 6.75-6.7850/80. Only a break below 6.75, if seen will trigger a sharp decline towards 6.70.

Aussie (0.7011) and Pound (1.3429) are trading higher today and can attempt to test 0.71 and 1.3550, respectively, before another corrective dip from there in the medium term.

USDINR (95.3425) tested 95.11 yesterday and has likely bottomed out for the very near term. While the rise sustains, the spot can move up to 95.50-95.75 region in the near term.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower but stable. There is limited room on the downside. We expect the support to hold. The yields can rise back from there and resume the uptrend. The German Yields have come down sharply. But support can limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI has come down from its day’s high yesterday. Resistance can cap the upside. The yield is likely to turn down and resume its overall downtrend. The RBI meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.69%) and 30Yr (5.23%) yields remain lower but stable. While above 4.65%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.2%-5.15% (30Yr) we retain our bullish view to see 4.8% (10Yr) and 5.35%-5.4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (3.15%) and 30Yr (3.65%) Yields have come down sharply. Support is at 3.1% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr). While that holds, the upside will remain open to see 3.3%-3.35% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) from here.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8343%) has come-off from the high of 6.8881%. The upside will be capped at 6.9%. The yield can fall back to 6.7%-6.6% eventually going forward.

Global equities have turned stronger. Dow and DAX have broken above key resistance levels and can rise further towards 54000-55000 and 26500-27000 respectively while holding above 53000 and 26000. Nifty remains bullish after a strong gap-up rally and can extend its gains towards 24900-25000, with a break above 25000 opening the way towards 25500-26000. Nikkei continues to face resistance near 66000 and remains vulnerable to a decline towards 61000-60000 while below this level. Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound within the 3750-3900 range for some time.

Dow (53476.11, +0.27%) has risen above 53000, contrary to our expectations. It needs to sustain above this level to extend its rally towards 54000-55000.

DAX (26201.49, +0.27%) has broken above 26000 and tested a high of 26183 yesterday. While above 26000, it can rise further towards 26500-27000.

Nifty (24,774.30, +1.60%) had a gap-up opening near 24500 and rallied sharply to test a high of 24774.30 yesterday. A further rise towards 24900-25000 can be seen in the coming sessions. Thereafter, a break above 25000 would trigger further bullishness towards 25500-26000.

Nikkei (63575.31, +0.20%) faces immediate resistance near 66000. While below this level, a decline towards 61000-60000 can be seen.

Shanghai (3806.80, -0.07%) can continue to trade within the broad range of 3750-3900 for some time.

Brent and WTI are likely to remain within the $ 80-$ 100 and $ 75-$ 95 ranges respectively. Gold and Silver can continue to trade within the $ 4000-$ 4200 and $ 55-$ 60 ranges respectively. Copper remains constructive and needs a sustained break above $ 6.60 to extend its rally towards $ 6.70-$ 6.80. Natural Gas continues to move sideways but remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 2.65 in the near term.

Brent ($ 84.83) and WTI ($ 81.18) are likely to continue trading within the broad ranges of $ 80-$ 100 and $ 75-$ 95 respectively until further directional clarity emerges.

Gold ($ 4116.40) can continue to trade within the broad range of $ 4000-$ 4200 for some time.

Silver ($ 58.92) can continue to trade within the broad range of $ 55-$ 60 for some time.

Copper ($ 6.57) needs a sustained break above $ 6.60 to trigger a further rise towards $ 6.70-$ 6.80.

Natural Gas ($ 2.7720) is moving sideways, but our view remains intact for a decline towards $ 2.65 in the near term.

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
…Expected-73.0 $ Bln …Previous -77.6 $ Bln

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
…Expected 50.2 …Previous 53.0

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————
JP PMI
Expn 54.9 …Expected 54.7 …Previous 54.8 …Actual 54.5

CN PMI
Expn 51.8 …Expected 51.9 …Previous 51.7 …Actual 50.9

IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 54.1 …Previous 53.9 …Actual53.5

CH CPI
…Expected -0.1 …Previous -0.1 …Actual 0.0

CH PMI
…Previous 54.3 …Actual 53.2 …Expected 54.5

EU PMI
…Expected 52.0 …Previous 52.0 …Actual51.9

UK PMI
…Expected 52.8 …Previous 52.8 …Actual 51.9 Expn 53.3

US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 53.4 …Expected 54.0 …Previous 53.3 Actual 55.6