The Dollar Index can decline towards 97/96 with the Euro likely to head towards 1.1850-1.19. The EURJPY can rise to 113-114 while the rising momentum continuea. USDJPY can re-attempt to test 158+ levels while above 157. USDCNY trades below 6.80 and has fair scope for a dip to 6.78/75 soon. Pound needs to sustain above 1.36 to head towards 1.37. Aussie can test 0.73 or higher in the near term on a confirmed break above resistance near 0.7250. USDINR needs to remain below 95.50 to dip back towards 95-94.70; else we may continue to see a rise from current levels.
Dollar Index (98.098) has immediate resistance at 98.25 below which it is likely for the index to decline towards 97/96 in the next 1-2 weeks.
EURUSD (1.1761) looks stable just now and has immediate support and resistance levels at 1.17 and 1.18 respectively. A break above 1.18 is needed for a rise towards 1.1850-1.19.
EURINR (112.3165) has risen sharply as expected and if it manages to break and sustain above 112.5, it can rise further towards 113-114 region.
EURJPY (185.29) has decent resistance near 186 which needs to be breached for a further rise to 188-189. Watch price action near 186. Failure to break on the upside can drag it lower to 184-182 region.
Dollar-Yen (157.55) is slowly inching up. If it declines from 158, we may expect 155-154 soon.
USDCNY (6.7931) is headed towards 6.78/75 in the medium term. Overall view is bearish below 6.80.
Aussie (0.7234) is headed towards crucial resistance at 0.7250 which if holds can keep it within a narrow range of 0.7250-0.7150. Else a break above 0.7250, if seen can be bullish for the currency in the medium term. This looks like a fair possibility.
Pound (1.3586) too needs a sustained rise above 1.36 to rise higher towards 1.37/38. Till then a narrow range of 1.32-1.36 can continue to hold as the near term trade range.
USDINR (95.3150) rise sharply yesterday breaking above 95 again. It would be crucial to see if it can face rejection from 95.50.
The US Treasury Yields continue to move up. Our bullish view is intact. The yields can rise more in the coming days, The German Yields have risen back well from their support as expected. That keeps intact our bullish view. More rise is on the cards. The 10Yr GoI has risen further. Immediate resistance has to be broken to move further higher. Else the yield can fall back. Need to wait and watch.
The US 10Yr (4.41%) and 30Yr (4.99%) Treasury yields continue to move up. Bullish view is intact to see 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr). Support is at 4.3%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.9%-4.85%
The German 10Yr (3.04%) and 30Yr (3.57%) yields are moving up from their 3%-2.95% (10Yr) and 3.5%-3.45% (30Yr) support zone respectively. That keeps intact our broader bullish view of seeing a rise to 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.7% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (7.0317%) has risen further. A decisive break above 7.05% can take it higher to 7.1%-7.15%. Else it can fall back to 6.95%-6.9% again. We will have to wait and watch.
Dow can remain within the 50000-49000 range while staying below 50000. DAX continues to weaken in line with expectations and can test 24000 soon. Nifty has closed near 23,800 yesterday and is likely to trade within the broader 24,500-23,500 range for some time. Nikkei remains bullish above 62000 and can bounce towards 64000 or higher in the coming weeks. Shanghai has risen sharply in line with expectations and can extend gains further towards 4250 in the near term.
Dow (49789, -0.02%) can remain within the mentioned 50000-49000 range for some time while it sustains below 50000.
DAX (24252, -0.66%) is falling in line with our expectations and can test 24000 in the coming sessions.
Nifty (23,815.15, -1.49%) has closed near 23,800 yesterday and can remain within our earlier mentioned broad range of 24,500-23,500 for some time.
Nikkei (62945.20, -0.02%) can bounce back towards 64000 or higher in the coming weeks while it stays above 62000.
Shanghai (4226.45, +0.04%) has surged to 4229 in line with our expectations and can rise further towards 4250 in the coming sessions.
Brent and WTI remain highly volatile with no clear direction visible yet, while broader ranges of $ 95-$ 115 and $ 90-$ 110 respectively can hold for some time. Gold needs a sustained break above $ 4800 to strengthen further towards $ 4900-$ 5000, else a corrective fall towards $ 4600-$ 4500 is possible. Silver has risen sharply in line with expectations and can extend gains towards $ 90-$ 95 in the near term. Copper remains bullish after testing $ 6.51 and can rise further towards $ 6.60 or higher. Natural Gas is approaching the key $ 3 resistance, and while this holds, the price can fall back again within the broader $ 2.50-$ 3 range.
Brent ($ 105.19) has moved higher and remains volatile. The direction is unclear at the moment, and a broad range of $ 95-$ 115 can hold for some time.
WTI ($ 99.08) remains highly volatile and can trade within a broad range of $ 90-$ 110 for some time until further directional clarity emerges.
Gold ($ 4741.60) needs a sustained break above $ 4800 to move higher towards $ 4900-$ 5000 in the near term. Otherwise, it risks falling back towards $ 4600-$ 4500.
Silver ($ 87.01) has risen sharply to test $ 86.98 yesterday in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 90-$ 95 can be seen in the near term.
Copper ($ 6.50) as expected, tested a high of $ 6.51 yesterday and can inch further up towards $ 6.60 or higher in the near term.
Natural Gas ($ 2.9180) is moving up to test $ 3, and while this holds, the price can fall lower again and maintain a broad range of $ 2.50-$ 3.
GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
3.68 …Previous 3.40
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.2 …Market 0.6 …Previous 0.9
GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.0 …Market 0.3 …Previous 0.2
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
…Market 0.9 …Previous 1.0 …Actual 1.2
GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 CN PPI
…Market 1.7 …Previous 0.5 …Actual 2.8
GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Ex Home Sales
4016 …Market 4050 …Previous 4010 …Actual 4020