The Dollar Index may trade within 98.50-97.50, while the Euro could remain above support at 1.17 and move up slowly towards 1.19. The EURJPY can rise to 186-188 while above 184, while the EURINR may face rejection from 112.50 and dip lower in the next few sessions. USDJPY needs to break above 158 to slowly move higher towards 159-160, else a rejection from 158 can drag it down to 157/156 in the next few sessions. Watch price action near 158. USDCNY is bearish to 6.78/75. Pound may range between 1.3650-1.3450 while Aussie can test 0.73 before facing any rejection from there. USDINR may test 96 while above 95.50. Thereafter, a decline can be possible on central bank intervention,if seen.

Dollar Index (98.305) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 98.50-97.50 in the next few sessions. A rejection from 98.50 is likely to take the price down to the lower end of the mentioned range. Thereafter, if it breaks below 97.50, lower levels of 97-96 would come into the picture. Overall view is bearish below 98.50.

EURUSD (1.1761) has support at 1.17, above which there is scope for a rise towards 1.18-1.19 in the near to medium term. Immediate view is bullish above 1.17.

EURINR (112.1998) tested our expected 112.5078 yesterday before trading slightly lower today. If 112.50 holds just now, we may expect a dip towards 112-111 region before the price again starts to move up. Watch price action near 112.50.

EURJPY (185.00) is trading right in the middle of the very broad range of 182-188. Now, while above 184, there is scope for a rise towards 186-188 soon.

Dollar-Yen (157.61) has moved up well this week, rising from last week’s low of 155.032. Now, we would need a sustained break above 158 for the price to move up further towards 159-160 again; else a rejection from 158 can drag it lower towards 156-155. Watch price action near 158.

USDCNY (6.7910) is bearish towards 6.78/75 in the medium term while below 6.80.

Aussie (0.7242) has scope to face resistance in the 0.7250-0.73 region which may hold and lead to a dip towards 0.72-0.71. But if the Dollar Index weakens as expected, Aussie could continue to trade higher, pushing beyond 0.73 in the near term. Watch price action near 0.73.

Pound (1.3541) is likely to remain ranged within 1.3450-1.3650 for sometime unless we see a decisive breakout on either side of the range.

USDINR (95.6325) broke above the expected resistance near 95.50 and has moved up well. A further rise to 96 is possible before a sharp rejection is seen from there in the medium term.

The US Treasury Yields have risen sharply after the inflation data release yesterday. The US Headline CPI rose 3.78% in April, up from 3.29% seen in March. The rise in the yield is happening in line with our expectation. There is room to rise more. The German yields are getting a strong follow-through rise. That keeps intact our bullish view and the yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI is hovering above its resistance. A sustained rise above this resistance is needed to go higher and avoid falling back. It is a wait and watch situation.

The US 10Yr (4.46%) and 30Yr (5.03%) Treasury yields have risen sharply. The rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.15%-5.2% (30Yr) is happening in line with our expectation.

The German 10Yr (3.10%) and 30Yr (3.62%) yields are getting a good follow-through rise. Our bullish view is intact. The yields can rise to 3.3% (10Yr) and 3.7% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0382 broke above 7.05% but did not sustain. As mentioned yesterday, a decisive rise above 7.05% is needed to go up to 7.1%-7.15%. Else, it can remain vulnerable for a fall to 6.95%-6.9%.

Dow can continue within the 50000-49000 range while below 50000. DAX has bounced after testing 24000, but a sustained break lower is needed for further decline. Nifty has weakened after breaking below 23,500 and can fall towards 23,200-23,000. Nikkei has recovered from below 62000 and can bounce towards 64000 if the support holds. Shanghai remains strong and can rise further towards 4250.

Dow (49840, -0.06%) has risen slightly but can remain within the mentioned 50000-49000 range for some time while it sustains below 50000.

DAX (24108, +0.37%) as expected, tested 24000 yesterday and has seen a bounce back today. A sustained break below 24000 is needed for a further decline towards 23800-23500. Otherwise, it can bounce towards 24300-24500.

Nifty (23,379.55, -1.83%) has broken below our expected 23,500-24,500 range, contrary to expectations. While below 23,500, the index may continue to decline towards 23,200-23,000 over the week.

Nikkei (62925.20, +0.62%) saw a brief break below 62000 and tested a low of 61800 before bouncing back. A sustained break below 62000 is needed to trigger a further decline towards 61000-60000. Otherwise, it can bounce back towards 64000.

Shanghai (4213.45, -0.01%) opened near 4192 but is moving higher and can rise further towards 4250 in the near term.

Brent is likely to test the upper end of $ 95-$ 115 range and WTI can sustain within $ 90-$ 110 range. Gold remains weak below $ 4800 and needs a sustained break higher to target $ 4900-$ 5000, else a fall towards $ 4600-$ 4500 remains possible. Silver has seen a dip, but the broader outlook stays bullish for a rise towards $ 90-$ 95. Copper remains strongly bullish after surging to $ 6.66 and can rise further towards $ 7 or higher while holding above $ 6. Natural Gas has fallen back after failing near the $ 3 resistance, and the range of $ 2.50-$ 3.00 is likely to hold for now.

Brent ($ 107.29) is moving higher and can test the upper end of the mentioned $ 95-$ 115 range in the near term.

WTI ($ 101.55) is moving higher within the mentioned $ 90-$ 110 range.

Gold ($ 4702.90) remains below $ 4800 and needs a sustained break above this level to move higher towards $ 4900-$ 5000 in the near term. Otherwise, it risks falling back towards $ 4600-$ 4500.

Silver ($ 87.11) has dipped slightly, but the outlook remains intact for a rise towards $ 90-$ 95 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.66) surged to a high of $ 6.66 yesterday in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 7.0 or higher can be seen in the near term while it stays above $ 6.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8240) has fallen back as the resistance near $ 3 held in line with expectations. While below $ 3, a broad range of $ 2.50-$ 3 can hold.

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
0.64 …Market 0.30 …Previous 0.41

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PPI
0.20 …Market 0.50 …Previous 0.51

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PPI (MoM)
0.1 …Market 0.3 …Previous 0.1

DATA YESTERDAY
==============
GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN CPI
3.68 …Market 3.80 …Previous 3.40

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
0.2 …Market 0.6 …Previous 0.9

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
0.0 …Market 0.3 …Previous 0.2