Optimism around a 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between US and Iran is keeping Dollar Index slightly lower but still within the broad 98.90-99.55 range. Euro remains stuck within 1.1670-1.1580 while EURINR has scope for a rise to 112-112.50 before facing a rejection towards 110.5-110. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish for the near term towards 186.50 and 160-161, respectively. USDCNY is headed towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.71-0.72 and 1.3350-1.3550, respectively. USDINR will have to dip towards 95.50-95.25 else would turn bullish towards 96+.

Dollar Index (99.037) has been in a sideways range of 99.55-98.90 for the last 10-sessions. A break below 98.90 is needed for the index to slip further towards 98.50-98.00 or lower. Till then the range can continue to hold.

EURUSD (1.1646) has also been fairly ranged and needs a decisive break on either side of 1.1580-1.1670 to decide on further direction from here.

EURINR (111.6203) has immediate resistance at 112 and higher at 112.50 below which there is decent scope for a decline to 110.50-110.

EURJPY (185.53) has scope to rise to 186-186.50 in the coming sessions before facing a rejection later. Immediate view is bullish while above 185.

Dollar-Yen (159.30) could be headed towards 160-161 while above 159. Only a significant decline below 98.90 on Dollar Index can bring down USDJPY below 159.

USDCNY (6.7705) has been falling as expected and could test 6.75 soon.

Aussie (0.7156) could test very near-term resistance at 0.72, below which trade in the 0.71-0.72 region is possible. A break above 0.72, if seen, would take it higher towards 0.7250-0.73.

Pound (1.3440) has immediate support at 1.3350 above which a rise to 1.35-1.3550 looks likely in the near term.

USDINR (95.69) needs to see a dip today for some hope of testing 95.25/95.00 again. Else, the upmove towards 96.00-96.30 could be tested soon before pausing for a reversal.

The US Treasury Yields have come down to their support. An immediate bounce from here can take them higher and will avoid an extended fall. The US PCE, the Fed inflation gauge, surged to 3.77% (YoY) in April, up from 3.53% a month ago. Higher inflation will keep the doors open for rate hikes this year. That will be positive for the yields. So, any fall in the yields from current levels can be limited. The German Yields have turned down as expected. They can fall to test their support first and then resume their upmove. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But resistance can cap the upside. It can fall more while it remains below the resistance.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields are at their key support levels of 4.45% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr). A bounce from here can take them up to 4.6% (10Yr) and 5.1% (30Yr) and even higher. Else an extended fall to 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) can be seen. Wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.96%) and 30Yr (3.51%) yields have turned down again as expected. The yields can test 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) and then rise back towards 3.1%-3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.7% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (6.9960%) has bounced back. A sustained rise above 7.05% might be needed to become bullish again. Else the fall to 6.9% cannot be avoided.

Dow is stuck between 50300 and 50850. The bias is positive to get a bullish breakout of this range and a rise to 52000. DAX is likely to fall more in the near-term which can delay the rise to 26000 that we are expecting. Nikkei has risen back sharply. The bullish view is intact to see 66000-66500 on the upside. Shanghai is holding above its support. But a sustained rise above 4160 is needed to negate the danger of breaking below 4050. Nifty has to rise above 24100 to become bullish. A break below 23950 on the other hand can drag it lower.

Dow (50,668.97, +0.05%) is stuck between 50,300 and 50,850. Bias remains positive for a rise to 52,000. A fall below 50,300 will negate this rise and drag it down to 49,900.

DAX (25,092.25, -0.34%) has dipped further. A fall below 24,950 can take it down to 24,600. That in turn will delay the rise to 26,000.

Nifty (23,907.15, -0.03%) has to rise back immediately to avoid the fall to 23,700. Ideally, a rise above 24,100 is needed to turn the sentiment positive and get more rise.

Nikkei (65894, +1.86%) has risen back very well and is heading up towards 66000-66500 in line with our expectation.

Shanghai (4148.98, +0.11%) is managing to hold above 4050. But a sustained rise above 4160 is needed to go up to 4250. Else it will remain vulnerable to break 4050 and fall to 3970.

Crude prices have declined sharply as the US and Iran agree for a 60-day ceasefire extension deal, awaiting Trump’s approval. Brent and WTI have scope to test $ 85-84 and $ 80 respectively before bouncing higher in the medium term. Gold and Silver have risen and could head towards $ 4600 and $ 80, respectively while Copper remains positive and can rise towards $ 6.60. Natural Gas has risen well breaking our expected $ 3.25 and can head towards $ 3.5 or higher soon.

Brent ($ 91.90) and WTI ($ 87.89) have declined well on hopes of peace deal and news on possible 60-day extension of ceasefire agreement. Near term dip to $ 85/84 on Brent and $ 80 on WTI looks likely before a bounce is seen.

Gold ($ 4536.90) and Silver ($ 76.28) is likely to rise towards $ 4600 and $ 80 in the next few sessions. However, a decisive break above the mentioned level is necessary for sustained upmove in the medium term.

Copper ($ 6.43) has scope to rise towards $ 6.60 while it trades above $ 6.25.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2950) has risen well above our expected $ 3.25 and while the rise sustains, it can move up towards $ 3.50 or higher in the coming sessions.

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
…Market 2.70 …Previous 2.70

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN GDP
7.7% …Previous 7.8%

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
…Previous 4.1

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Biz Climate
…Market 92.8 …Previous 93.0 …Actual 93.50

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
0.05 …Market 0.40 …Previous 0.50 …Actual 0

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
…Market 0.30 …Previous 0.66 …Actual 0.40

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
0.3 …Market 0.5 …Previous 0.3 …Actual 0.20

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
-1.74 …Market 3.30 …Previous 1.35 …Actual 7.95

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US GDP
2.18 …Market 2.10 …Previous 1.98 …Actual 1.6

{GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US New Home Sales
703 …Market 661 …Previous 682 …Actual 622