Most currencies seem to have gone into a sideways consolidation within specific ranges which may continue for the rest of the week. Dollar Index and Euro can trade within 99.50-98.50 and 1.1670-1.1580 respectively while EURINR could rise to 111.50 while above 110.35. EURJPY and USDJPY could trade within 185.50-185 and 159.50-160.50 respectively while USDCNY could see a slight rise to 6.77/78 before again falling back towards 6.75. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.72-0.71 and 1.3450-1.35 while USDINR can rise towards 95.50 while above 95.25.

Dollar Index (99.247) has risen but could limit its immediate upside to 99.50. Overall, broad sideways consolidation looks more likely for the rest of the week.

EURUSD (1.1626) has scope to dip to 1.16-1.1580 in the near term while below 1.1670.

EURINR (110.9504) has moved up but if the Rupee weakens further today, it can lead to a rise in the EURINR as well towards 110.5.

EURJPY (185.87) is trading below 186. On the upside, there is resistance at 186.50, while on the downside, there is a chance for a dip to 185.

Dollar-Yen (159.85) seems to be holding well above 159.50 and can continue to rise towards 160+ soon.

USDCNY (6.7659) has bounced slightly today and has scope to rise towards 6.77/78 on the upside before again falling back towards 6.75 in the later sessions.

Aussie (0.7177) looks stable and can trad within 0.7150-0.72 for the day while Pound (1.3466) also seems to be inching up slowly and could remain in a sideways range between 1.3450-1.35.

USDINR (95.27) bounced back well yesterday and if it manages to sustain trade above 95.25, it can rise further towards 95.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury and the German Yields remain stable. The Treasury yields are hanging around their support. They have to bounce back immediately to avoid the extended fall. We will have to wait and see. The German Yields on the other hand can dip to test their support first and then rise back again. The 10Yr GoI is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. A rise above the immediate resistance is needed to go higher and avoid more fall.

The US 10Yr (4.46%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields are hanging around their 4.45% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr) support respectively. A strong bounce is needed from here to avoid the fall to 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr) breaking below their support. We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.97%) and 30Yr (3.52%) yields remain lower and stable. A fall to 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) is likely to be seen first. Thereafter we expect a reversal and a rise to 3.1%-3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.7% (30Yr) in the medium term.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0129%) sustains above 7% but struggles to get a strong follow-through rise. We reiterate that a rise above 7.05% is needed to go up to 7.15% again and negate the fall to 6.9%.

Dow and DAX remain positive after rebounding from recent lows and can rise further towards 51500-52000 and 25500-26000 respectively. Nifty has recovered above 23,300 contrary to expectations, keeping the near-term bias bullish towards 23,600-23,800. Nikkei has also turned stronger than expected and can advance towards 69000 in the coming sessions. Shanghai has bounced from support near 4032 and, while above 4050-4040, can extend its recovery towards 4100-4125.

Dow (51387.70, -0.03%) has bounced back from the low of 50841 and rose to 51400 yesterday. While above 50500, a further rise towards 51500-52000 can be seen.

DAX (25,117.10, -0.08%) has held above 25000 and bounced back to a high of 25397 yesterday as expected. A further rise towards 25500-26000 can be seen in the near term.

Nifty (23,483.55, +0.43%) has recovered above 23,300 and tested a high of 23,557, contrary to our expectations. The bias remains bullish towards 23,600-23,800 while it stays above 23,300.

Nikkei (68485.46, +1.44%) has bounced back contrary to our expectations. A rise towards 69000 can be seen in the coming sessions.

Shanghai (4082.68, +0.20%) tested 4032 and bounced back above 4070 yesterday. While above 4050-4040, the rise could extend further towards 4100-4125.

Brent and WTI continue to strengthen in line with expectations and can rise further towards $ 100 if geopolitical tensions remain elevated. Gold and Silver are likely to remain range-bound within $ 4400-$ 4600 and $ 70-$ 80 respectively. Copper has turned bullish after breaking above $ 6.60 and can extend gains towards $ 6.75-$ 6.80 in the near term. Natural Gas remains weak and could test the key $ 3.00 support in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 96.76) and WTI ($ 94.60) have moved higher in line with our expectations, and if tensions remain elevated, a further rise towards $ 100 can be seen in the near term.

Gold ($ 4509.10) and Silver ($ 75.06) can continue to trade within the broad ranges of $ 4400-$ 4600 and $ 70-$ 80 respectively for some time.

Copper ($ 6.65) has broken above $ 6.60 as expected and surged to $ 6.70 in line with our projections. A further rise towards $ 6.75-$ 6.80 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1640) is weakening and could test the $ 3.00 level in the coming sessions.

GMT 23:00 IST 04:30 AU PMI
…Previous -27.9

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 AU GDP
…Market 0.50 …Previous 0.79

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Services PMI
…Market 58.9 …Previous 58.9

GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 US ADP Emp
-57.0 …Market 116.0 …Previous 109.0

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Flash CPI (YoY)
4.1 …Market 3.3 …Previous 3.0