The Dollar index continues to rise and could move up to 101-101.50 while Euro can tank lower to 1.13 if it does not bounce back from 1.14. EURINR needs to bounce from 108 else it can fall to 107.50-107. EURJPY may hold within 183-186 region for now. USDJPY has risen well above 161 and can rise towards 162 soon. USDCNY can test 6.78 before coming off towards 6.76/75 again.  Aussie looks bearish while Pound has already plunged to levels below 1.3250 and needs to bounce back to avoid further decline. USDINR may move higher on Dollar strength and Euro weakness. There is crucial support at 94.05 and lower near 93.85/90 which may hold.

Dollar Index (100.826) rose sharply, is rising well and could move up towards crucial resistance region of 101-101.50.

EURUSD (1.1453) has indeed broken below 1.15 on Dollar strength and could test the lower target of 1.14. Thereafter, a bounce back if seen will bring back 1.15 or higher into the picture; else sustained decline may open up 1.13 or lower in the medium term.

EURINR (108.0768) has fallen sharply on Euro weakness. A break below 108 can drag it lower towarss 107.50-107 before a bounce is seen.

EURJPY (184.59) is holding within the 184-186 region.

Dollar-Yen (161.20) has finally broken above 161. There is scope to test 162 before facing any rejection from there. At the same time there are chances of intervention from the BOJ which may not allow for a sharp rise above 162. Watch price action near 162 in the coming days.

USDCNY (6.7681)   is headed towards 6.78 which can be tested soon while the Dollar Index remains strong.

Aussie (0.7005)   could fall to 0.69 while Pound (1.3195) has plunged below the support near 1.33/3250 after BOE kept rates unchanged but look higher inflation to weigh on the UK economy. Markets expect one rate hike this year. Pound will have to bounce back soon else we will have to look for fresh lower targets for the near to medium term.

USDINR (94.3375) is likely to open higher today on Dollar strength and Euro weakness. However, we have to see if it can sustain to rise in the near term or remain stable. There is crucial support at 94.05 and lower at 93.85/90 which are not expected to break soon.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower. There is not much room on the downside. Support is there to limit the downside. While the supports hold, the yields are likely to see a good rise going forward. The German yields are stable and lower. They can dip more from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr GoI is coming down to test its support in line with our expectation. We can expect the yield to bounce back after this fall.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and 30Yr (4.90%) yields remain lower. The 10Yr has support at 4.4% and can rise to 4.55%-4.6% on a break above 4.5%. The 30Yr tested its support at 4.85% as expected and has risen back. While that holds, it can rise back to 5%-5.5%.

The German 10Yr (2.93%) and 30Yr (3.47%) yields remain lower and stable. A fall to 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45%-3.4% (30Yr) is likely to be seen first from here before they reverse higher and resume their broader uptrend.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8387%) is coming down towards 6.8% in line with our expectation. Thereafter a bounce back to 6.9% is a possibility.

Dow and DAX faces immediate resistances and looks vulnerable to a pullback towards 51000-50000 and 24500-24000 respectively. Nifty has closed above its 21-week moving average and can rise further towards 24400, while Nikkei remains bullish above 70000 with scope to test 72000. Shanghai is holding above 4000 and can extend its rise towards 4150-4200 in the coming weeks.

Dow (51908.21, -0.17%) continues to fall as the long-term resistance zone near 52700-53000 has held. While below this region, the downside remains open towards 51000-50000.

DAX (25139.33, -0.32%) had a gap up opening near 25200 in line with our expectations but is falling back from there. Medium-term resistance is seen in the 25200-25500 region. If this holds, a pullback towards 24500-24000 remains likely.

Nifty (24,168.00, +0.34%) moved higher and closed above the 21-week moving average at 24097 yesterday. While it remains above this level, the index can rise further towards 24400 in the coming week.

Nikkei (71505.42, -0.75%) remains bullish for a rise towards 71500-72000 while it stays above 70000.

Shanghai (4090.32, -0.43%) tested 4117.5 in line with our expectations before closing just below 4100. While above 4000, a rise towards 4150-4200 remains likely in the coming weeks.

Brent and WTI remains below $ 85 and $ 80 respectively. Brent can decline towards $ 75-$ 70, while WTI can fall towards $ 70-$ 65, where the downside could be limited and a corrective bounce back may happen. Gold continues to weaken and can decline further towards $ 4100-$ 4000, while Silver has reached the $ 65 level and looks likely to test $ 60. Copper is approaching key support near $ 6.25, which needs to hold to keep alive the chances of a rise towards $ 6.50. Natural Gas remains range-bound between $ 3.00-$ 3.50.

Brent ($ 79.50) has risen slightly yesterday, but while it remains below $ 85, the downside remains open towards $ 75-$ 70. The maximum downside could be limited to $ 70, from where a short corrective bounce back can be seen.

WTI ($ 75.54) has inched higher, but while it trades below $ 80, the bias remains bearish and a further decline towards $ 70-$ 65 can be seen in the near term. The maximum downside could be limited to $ 65, from where a bounce back can be seen.

Gold ($ 4202.60) continues to weaken and can decline further towards $ 4100-$ 4000 in the coming week.

Silver ($ 65.08) has fallen to our mentioned level of $ 65 and looks likely to decline further towards $ 60 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.35) has dipped. Immediate support is seen near $ 6.25, which, if it holds, could keep alive the chances of a rise towards our earlier mentioned target of $ 6.50.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2180) continues to trade within the broad $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range and is likely to remain range-bound for some time.

GMT 23:05 IST 04:35 UK Cons Conf
…Market -23 …Previous -23

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
…Market 1.40 …Previous 1.35

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
…Market 5.0 …Previous 5.0

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 SNB Mtg
…Market 0.00 …Previous 0.00

GMT 11:00 IST 16:30 BOE Mtg
…Market 3.75 …Previous 3.75

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Philifed Index
-2.4 …Market 11.4 …Previous -0.4

{GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
…Market 72.5 …Previous 81.3