The Dollar index has dipped further leading to a rise in the Euro above 1.14. It would be important to see if the Euro continues to hold above 1.14 or not. EURINR is holding well above 107 and needs to rise back above 108 to rise further.  EURJPY has also risen well as expected. The rise, if continues can take it slowly towards 186. USDJPY has broken above 162 and if it holds, it can rise to 163/164.  USDCNY has dipped and while below 6.80, it can test 6.78/76. Aussie is expected to rise from current levels while Pound needs to hold well above 1.32 to avoid further decline from here. USDINR may cap it’s upside to 95/95.10 while a fall to 94.05-93.85 is likely on a break below immediate support at 94.15.

Dollar Index (101.19) has dipped further. There is support near 100.90-101 region which needs to hold for the dollar index to bounce back towards 101.5-102 eventually. Else failure to hold above 100.90 can drag it down towars 100-99 in the coming weeks.

EURUSD (1.1412) has moved back above 1.14. It is important for the spot to remain higher to rise further to 1.1450-1.15 else it can fall back again below 1.14. Watch price action around 1.14 to confirm if the price is finally moving up.

EURINR (107.9634) has recovered the fall seen over the last few days. A decisive break above 108 will confirm bullishness for the near term towards 109/110.

EURJPY (184.99) has bounced well as expected and a sustained rise above 185 can turn bullish for the near term to 186.

Dollar-Yen (162.17) has risen above the crucial resistance at 162. Unless an immediate decline is seen, it may not dip back and could instead move towards 163/164 before pausing for a reversal.

USDCNY (6.7931)   has dipped. While below 6.80, it can dip towards 6.79/78. A sustained rise above 6.80 is needed for a target of 6.83/85 to come into the picture.

Aussie (0.6870) is currently trading below 0.69 but may soon bounce back towards 0.69 or higher. Failure to rise back above 0.69 would take it down to 0.68 before a reversal is seen.

Pound (1.3235) has bounced and is holding above 1.32 for now. A gradual rise from here is needed to prevent further decline towards 1.31/30.

USDINR (94.55) rise from 94.25 to close higher. Unless immediate support at 94.15 breaks it may be difficult for the USDINR to test lower levels of 94.05-93.85. Sustained trade above 94.50 can slowly take it to 94.75/80-95.10. We may expect the currency to remain in a consolidative range for now.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower but stable after declining below their key support. They can fall more from here and then reverse higher again. The German Yields remain stable around their key support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. The 10Yr GoI is at its key support. A bounce from here and a strong follow-through rise above the immediate resistance is needed to get some relief. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.37%) and 30Yr (4.86%) remain lower but stable. While below 4.45% (10Yr) and 4.9% (30Yr), a fall to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) can happen first and then a reversal can be seen.

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.41%) remain stable around their key support. A fall to 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) is possible if they fail to rise back immediately.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7515%) is testing its support at 6.75%. It has to sustain above 6.75% and rise past 6.8% to get a relief rise to 6.9%. We will have to wait and see.

Global equities remain mixed. Dow needs a break above 53000 to target 53500-54000. Else, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards 51000-50000. DAX stays weak below 25500 and can decline towards 24500-24250. Nifty needs to hold above 24000 to revive the upmove towards 24100-24200. Nikkei has bounced back from support and can rise towards 71000-71500. Shanghai is holding above 4000 and can extend the recovery towards 4100-4150.

Dow (52530.13, +0.70%) has risen but remains below the immediate resistance near 53000. While below this level, a decline towards 51000-50000 can be seen. However, a sustained break above 53000 would trigger a further rise towards 53500-54000.

DAX (24878.21, -0.18%) has fallen and can decline further towards 24500-24250 in the near term while it remains below 25500.

Nifty (23,946.00, -0.46%) declined below 24000 and closed just above the immediate support at 23900. It needs to sustain above this level to recover above 24000 and move higher towards 24100-24200. Only a decisive break below 23900 would open the possibility of a decline towards 23600 in the medium term.

Nikkei (70760.44, +1.16%) tested the support near 68530 and bounced back sharply above 70000 in line with our expectations. A further rise towards 71000-71500 can be seen.

Shanghai (4070.46, -0.08%) tested 3992 and bounced back yesterday in line with our expectations. While above 4000, a further rise towards 4100-4150 can be seen.

Brent can test $ 70 before bouncing back towards $ 80-$ 85, while WTI may decline towards $ 65 before recovering towards $ 75-$ 80. Gold continues to hold above the key $ 4000 support, keeping the outlook positive for a rise towards $ 4100-$ 4150. Silver and Copper have seen a minor pullback but remain constructive while supports near $ 55 and $ 5.90 hold, with scope to rise towards $ 65-$ 70 and $ 6.25-$ 6.30 respectively. Natural Gas has weakened but is likely to remain within the broader $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range.

Brent ($ 72.55) can decline further to test $ 70 in the near term before a bounce back towards $ 80-$ 85 is seen thereafter.

WTI ($ 70.42) has risen slightly, but the view remains intact for a decline towards $ 65 in the near term before a bounce back towards $ 75-$ 80 takes place.

Gold ($ 4030.30) has fallen back, but while it holds above $ 4000, our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 4100-$ 4150.

Silver ($ 58.76) has dipped but has immediate support near $ 55. While this level holds, a rise towards $ 65-$ 70 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.17) has dipped, but while it remains above $ 5.90, a rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1720) has fallen sharply but can continue to trade within the broad $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range for some time.

GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
…Market 2.5 …Previous 2.5

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK GDP
…Market 0.60 …Previous 0.20

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Previous 0.88

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
91.55 …Market 94.20 …Previous 93.10

DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Biz Climate
…Market 94.30 …Previous 93.50

{GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
6.6 …Previous 4.9