The Dollar index needs to hold above support near 100.90-101 to move up to 102 gradually and taking down Euro back to 1.13 or lower. EURINR is holding well above support at 107 and needs to break above 108 now to head towards 109/110. EURJPY has also risen well as expected and ma y soon break above 186 to rise towards 187/188 before pausing for a reversal. USDJPY trades well above 162 with scope of testing 163/164. USDCNY could trade within 6.78-6.80/81 for the near term. Aussie and Pound need to rise back above 0.69 and 1.32 respectively to avoid a decline to 0.68/67 and 1.31/30. USDINR may rise initially to test resistance at 95/95.10 before a dip to 94.25/15 can be seen again.

Dollar Index (101.302) has support near 100.90-101 region which needs to hold for the dollar index to bounce back towards 101.5-102 eventually. Else failure to hold above 100.90 can drag it down toward 100-99 in the coming weeks.

EURUSD (1.1403) tested a high of 1.1436 but has moved lower. As mentioned in the past few editions, 1.14 is an important level which if holds can take it to 1.15+; else the spot might fall back towards 1.13 and lower eventually.

EURINR (107.9634) has recovered well from the support at 107 and has scope to rise in the medium term on a break above 108, targeting 110 again. View is bullish for the next few sessions.

EURJPY (185.47) has risen well as expected. A break above 186 will be further bullish for a rise to 188 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (162.63) has sustained trade above 162 and if the momentum persists, it can soon test 164 on the upside before pausing for a reversal.

USDCNY (6.7884) trades above immediate support at 6.78 with chances of a rise to 6.80/81 in the coming sessions. A break below 6.78, if seen and sustained will drag it lower towards 6.77/76 again in the medium term. Watch price action near 6.78.

Aussie (0.6894) needs to bounce back and move up above 0.69 in the next few sessions to avoid decline towards 0.68/67.

Pound (1.3239) has earlier support turned resistance at 1.3250/3260 region which needs to be broken for the Pound to re-establish bullish hopes for the near to medium term. Else sustained trade below 1.3260/3250 will gradually drag the spot lower towards 1.31/30.

USDINR (94.6650) tested 94.7550 yesterday. The pair has not been able to break below 94.25 this week as the central bank seems to be buying qat lower levels not allowing further Rupee appreciation. In that case, we may soon see a test of resistance near 95.00/10 from where we may again look for a rejection in the medium term towards 94.25/15. Failure to hold below 95.10 will open up chances of a further rise to 95.50.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back sharply contrary to our expectation. A further rise from here will negate the fall that we were expecting and can take it higher. The German yields continue to oscillate around their support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. It is a wait and watch situation, The 10Yr GoI has bounced back well from its intraday low yesterday. Need to see if it can get a strong follow-through rise today and go further higher to get some relief.

The US 10Yr (4.46%) and 30Yr (4.95%) have risen back sharply contrary to our expectation. If this sustains a further rise to 4.5%-4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) is possible. That will negate the fall to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) that we were expecting.

The German 10Yr (2.86%) and 30Yr (3.42%) continues to remain lower and stable. Failure to rise back immediately from here can drag them downt o 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7501%) fell to 6.6966% and has risen back well. A follow-through rise today can take it higher to 6.8%, a key intermediate resistance.

Dow remains below 53000 and could stay within the 52000-53000 range for some time. DAX is likely to trade sideways between 24600 and 25200 until a breakout provides directional clarity. Nifty remains weak below 23900 and can decline towards 23700-23600. Nikkei retains a positive bias towards 71000-71500. Shanghai has strengthened above 4100 and can extend its rally towards 4150-4200.

Dow (52499.13, -0.31%) has been sustaining below the resistance near 53000. While below this level, a range of 52000-53000 could hold for some time.

DAX (25137.46, -0.02%) has bounced back sharply, contrary to our expectations. Immediate support is seen near 24600, while resistance is near 25200. As long as these levels hold, the index could trade within this range for some time before a breakout on either side provides further directional clarity.

Nifty (23,865.75, -0.34%) has closed below 23900. While it remains below this level, a further decline towards 23700-23600 can be seen over the week.

Nikkei (70630.64, -0.90%) can rise towards 71000-71500 in the near term.

Shanghai (4123.94, +0.72%) has risen above 4100 in line with our expectations and can move higher towards 4150-4200 in the coming sessions.

Crude prices remain weak and can decline towards $ 70 and $ 65 before a corrective bounce back is seen. Gold is attempting a break below $ 4000. A sustained break could drag it towards $ 3800-$ 3700. Silver remains weak but support near $ 55 could trigger a recovery towards $ 65-$ 70. Copper continues to hold above $ 5.90 and can rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30. Natural Gas remains range-bound within the broader $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range.

Brent ($ 73.22) can decline further to test $ 70 in the near term before a bounce back towards $ 80-$ 85 is seen thereafter.

WTI ($ 69.78) can decline further towards $ 65 in the near term before a bounce back towards $ 75-$ 80 takes place.

Gold ($ 3995.20) is attempting a break below $ 4000. A sustained break below this level would negate our earlier view of a rise towards $ 4100-$ 4150 and trigger a further decline towards $ 3800-$ 3700.

Silver ($ 58.30) remains weak but has immediate support near $ 55. While this level holds, a rise towards $ 65-$ 70 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.15) has dipped, but while it remains above $ 5.90, a rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.2430) has been trading flat and can continue to trade within the broad $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range for some time.

GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -22.4

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
…Market 16 …Previous 17

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
…Market 54.9 …Previous 54.5

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
…Market 52.0 …Previous 51.8

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Market 54.5 …Previous 55.0

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH PMI
…Market 56.3 …Previous 57.3

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 EU PMI
…Market 51.3 …Previous 51.3

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 UK PMI
…Market 53.1 …Previous 53.1

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU CPI Fllash Estimate (YoY)
3.0 …Market 3.2 …Previous 3.2

GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 US ADP Emp
-269 …Market 118 …Previous 122

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
53.0 …Market 53.7 …Previous 54.0

DATA YESTERDAY
==============
GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP Unemp
…Market 2.5 …Previous 2.5 …Actual 2.5

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK GDP
…Market 0.60 …Previous 0.20 …Actual 0.20

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
…Previous 0.88

{GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
91.55 …Market 94.20 …Previous 93.10