Dollar Index is expected to remain strong above 100.75, keeping the momentum bullish for USDJPY towards 163/164 and leading to possible weakness in other major currencies in the medium term. However, an immediate dip in the Dollar Index towards the mentioned support could give some relief to other currencies. Euro could trade within 1.1325/1.1450 while EURINR can move up to 109. EURJPY looks structurally bearish towards 184 while below 186. USDJPY could test 161.75 before resuming its uptrend towards 164. USDCNY could test 6.7830/7800 before bouncing back to 6.80. Aussie has been stable within 0.6866-0.6931 region which can hold for the rest of the week while Pound ha before facing rejection. USDINR rose sharply yesterday, breaking above 95.10 as cautioned. If the rising momentum persists, we may expect a rally towards 95.50/96 before a decent reversal is seen.

Dollar Index (101.355) has support near 101 and lower near 100.75 which if holds can produce a slow and steady rise towards 102 and higher in the coming days. A decisive break below 100.75 will negate our bullish view.

EURUSD (1.1384) is likely to see some consolidation within the 1.1325-1.1450 region for the next few sessions. Unless a clear breakout is seen, the next course of direction remains indecisive within the long term bearish structure.

EURINR (108.3042) has scope to rise towards 109 before reversing to decline back towards 108 or lower in the medium term.

EURJPY (185.01) has declined sharply yesterday from 185.86. If the pair does not bounce back immediately, it could lead to a fall to 184/183.50 again in the coming week.

Dollar-Yen (162.54) has dipped from 162.84 and may see a corrective decline to 161.75 before again bouncing back to resume its rally towards 164.

USDCNY (6.7873) may test 6.7830-6.7800 before bouncing back again towards 6.80/81.

Aussie (0.6894) has been stuck within the 0.6866-0.6931 range and may continue to hold so for the next 2-sessions of the week. A break on either side will be needed for clarity on further course of direction from here.

Pound (1.32826) has been steadily rising over the past few sessions and looks bullish towards 1.3340 in the near term where we may expect a decent resistance to hold and push the spot back towards 1.32.

USDINR (95.2575) rose sharply yesterday breaking above the 95.10 resistance to close at 95.2575. If the momentum sustains, we may see a test of 95.50-96.00 in the coming sessions before pausing for a reversal in the medium term. Only an immediate decline can prevent such a fall but that looks unlikely.

The US Treasury Yields have moved up further. That reduced the chances of the fall expected earlier and keeps the door open to see more rise from here. The US unemployment data release today will need a close watch. The German yields are attempting to bounce back. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to avoid falling back and go higher. The 10Yr GoI is hovering around its support. The recent price action indicates that a rise is possible in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.48%) and 30Yr (4.97%) have inched further up. That keeps intact our view of seeing 4.5%-4.55% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) on the upside. In turn a rise to 4.55% (10Yr) and 5.05% (30Yr) can be seen.

The German 10Yr (2.88%) and 30Yr (3.45%) are attempting to move up. A further rise from here can avoid the fall to 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7563%) is hovering around 6.75%. Last two days’ price action indicates that a rise to 6.8% is likely in the near-term.

Global equities are largely range-bound. Dow could remain within the 52000-53000 range while resistance near 53000 holds. DAX has turned positive and can rise towards 25400-25500 if it sustains above 25200. Nifty faces immediate resistance near 24000 and can decline towards 23800-23600 while below it. Nikkei may continue to trade within the broad 68000-73000 range. Shanghai is also likely to remain range-bound between 4000 and 4150.

Dow (52688.30, +0.04%) tested a high of 53105 before closing lower yesterday. While the immediate resistance near 53000 holds, a range of 52000-53000 could persist for some time.

DAX (25287.44, -0.26%) is trading above 25200 and could rise further towards 25400-25500 if it sustains above this level.

Nifty (24,005.85, +0.59%) tested the immediate resistance near 24000. While this resistance holds, we retain our view of a decline towards 23800-23600.

Nikkei (70100.64, +0.20%) has fallen back contrary to our expectations and could trade within a broad range of 68000-73000 for some time.

Shanghai (4086.71, -0.61%) tested a high of 4143 yesterday. Today, it opened with a gap down near 4054 and is recovering, but could face resistance near 4150. A range of 4000-4150 could hold for some time.

Crude prices remain under pressure, with Brent and WTI likely to decline towards $ 70 and $ 65 before a corrective bounce back is seen. Gold is hovering near the crucial $ 4000 level. A sustained break below this could trigger a decline towards $ 3800-$ 3700. Silver continues to recover gradually and can rise towards $ 65-$ 70 while support near $ 55 holds. Copper remains constructive above $ 5.90 and can rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30. Natural Gas continues to trade within the broader $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range.

Brent ($ 70.80) has dipped and can decline further to test $ 70 in the near term before a bounce back towards $ 80-$ 85 is seen thereafter.

WTI ($ 67.80) is falling in line with our expectations and can decline further towards $ 65 in the near term before a bounce back towards $ 75-$ 80 takes place.

Gold ($ 4062.40) is hovering near $ 4000. A sustained break below this level would negate our view of a rise towards $ 4100-$ 4150 and trigger a further decline towards $ 3800-$ 3700.

Silver ($ 60.13) is inching higher gradually, with immediate support seen near $ 55. While this level holds, a rise towards $ 65-$ 70 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.17) remains above $ 5.90. While this level holds, a rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1980) has fallen but can continue to trade within the broad $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range for some time.

GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Market 2.18 …Previous 1.79

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 CH CPI
…Market 0.2 …Previous 0.6

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Unemp
…Market 6.3 …Previous 6.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US NFP
102 …Market 114 …Previous 172

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Market 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.1 …Market 0.3 …Previous 0.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
1.5 …Previous 0.2

GMT 13:30 IST 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 52.9

DATA YESTERDAY
==============
GMT 22:30 IST 04:00 AU PMI
…Previous -22.4 …Actual -16.8

GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
…Market 16 …Previous 17 …Actual 22

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 JP PMI
…Market 54.9 …Previous 54.5 …Actual 54.8

GMT 1:45 IST 07:15 CN PMI
…Market 52.0 …Previous 51.8 …Actual 51.7

GMT 5:00 IST 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Market 54.5 …Previous 55.0 ..Actual 54.2

GMT 7:30 IST 13:00 CH PMI
…Market 56.3 …Previous 57.3

GMT 8:00 IST 13:30 EU PMI
…Market 51.3 …Previous 51.3

GMT 8:30 IST 14:00 UK PMI
…Market 53.1 …Previous 53.1

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU CPI Fllash Estimate (YoY)
3.0 …Market 3.2 …Previous 3.2

GMT 12:15 IST 17:45 US ADP Emp
-269 …Market 118 …Previous 122

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
53.0 …Market 53.7 …Previous 54.0