The SGX Nifty July 2026 futures are presently trading 10.50 points lower, indicating a subdued opening for the benchmark index today. India’s retail inflation has exceeded the Reserve Bank’s target for the first time in 17 months, according to government data released on Monday. This development paves the way for potential interest rate hikes in an economy facing risks from an extended conflict in West Asia.

The consumer price index increased to 4.38% year-over-year in June, a rise from the 3.93% figure recorded in May. Inflation was driven by increased fuel and food prices, which surged due to supply disruptions stemming from the conflict in Iran and a postponement of seasonal rainfall. The year-on-year inflation rate, as indicated by the All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) for June, stood at 5.32%, according to a release from India’s Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation on Monday. Transport inflation increased by 4.3% in June, surpassing the 1.75% increase observed in May.

Institutional Flows:

On 13 July 2026, provisional data indicated that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested shares amounting to Rs 3,062.27 crore, whereas domestic institutional investors (DIIs) engaged in net purchases totalling Rs 2,171.70 crore in the Indian equity market. The FIIs have acquired shares valued at Rs 1,510.62 crore thus far in July (up to 13 July 2026). This stands in stark contrast to their cash sales of Rs 49,028.63 crore in June, Rs 55,963.33 crore in May, and Rs 70,135.46 crore in April.

Global Markets:

Asian markets experienced a slight decline, while oil prices reached a one-month peak during early trading on Tuesday. This movement followed President Donald Trump’s announcement regarding the reinstatement of the U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping in the Gulf, alongside a plan to impose a 20% fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures increased by 2.6% to $85.50 per barrel, marking their highest level since mid-June, as trading activities resumed in Asia. The most recent escalation occurred following airstrikes exchanged between Iran and the U.S. over the weekend. Tehran has taken action against U.S. facilities across multiple Gulf nations and has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Trump contested this assertion on Sunday, affirming that the vital shipping route continues to be accessible for commercial traffic. On Saturday, Trump authorised airstrikes against Iran following an attack by Tehran on a commercial vessel navigating the strait. Markets experienced volatility following hawkish remarks on Monday from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that the U.S. central bank might need to increase interest rates “in the near term” should forthcoming data reveal inflation persistently exceeding the 2% target. Overnight, stocks on Wall Street experienced a sell-off while oil futures surged by more than 9% as tensions between the United States and Iran flared up again, disrupting the flow of goods through the Strait of Hormuz.

The S&P 500 experienced a decline of 0.79%, concluding the day at 7,515.34, whereas the Nasdaq Composite saw a decrease of 1.55%, finishing at 25,873.18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average settled down 138.37 points, or 0.26%, at 52,498.64. Attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S. CPI data set to be released later on Tuesday, which will be succeeded by remarks from Fed Chair Warsh, who is scheduled to present the central bank’s semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.

Domestic Market:

Benchmark indices rebounded from initial declines to close slightly higher on Monday, bolstered by robust purchasing activity in IT stocks. The Nifty concluded the trading session above the 24,200 threshold, having recovered from an intraday low of 24,000.20. The Nifty IT index experienced a rally of 3.6%, primarily driven by a 5.5% increase in TCS, alongside advancements in consumer durables stocks. In contrast, shares in the FMCG and metal sectors experienced a decline, whereas the broader market indices concluded the trading session largely unchanged.

Investors largely dismissed worries regarding rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, directing their attention instead to developments specific to individual stocks during the ongoing first-quarter earnings season. The S&P BSE Sensex increased by 47.04 points, reflecting a rise of 0.06%, reaching a level of 77,616.40. The Nifty 50 index experienced an increase of 4.10 points, reflecting a change of 0.02%, reaching a level of 24,211.