With crude prices falling sharply by around $ 10/barrel, there can be some easing in the currency markets as the Dollar Index holds stable around 101. While the index may trade within 101.50-100.70 region for a while, Euro may attempt a slow rise towards 1.1450-1.15 while above 1.1370/1.14. USDJPY can dip to 162.70 before a slow rise towards 165 resumes. Aussie looks stable while Pound has scope to rise to 1.34/35 while above immediate support at 1.33. EURINR can trade within 109.5-110.50 while USDCNY can trade within 6.75-6.7850 for some time. USDINR could have scope to dip to 96.20-96.00 while below 97-96.75. The dip can come on the back of a decline in crude prices from levels above $ 100 to almost $ 90 now (Brent).

Dollar Index (101.198) is likely to trade within the 101.55-100.70 region for the near term with long term bullish bias still in place but needs a confirmation of a break above 102.

EURUSD (1.1406) has once again regained above 1.14 with immediate downside limited to 1.1350. While the rise above 1.14 sustains, a slow rise towards 1.15 looks possible. A decisive break below 1.13 is needed in the longer run for the spot to turn bearish.

EURINR (110.1692) may remain in a sideways consolidation between 109.50 and 110.50 for a few sessions before a breakout is seen on either side of the range.

Dollar-Yen (163.55) has dipped slightly from 164 which could hold for the next few sessions but the downside looks limited to 162.70 above which the trend remains bullish for a near-term target of 165.

EURJPY (186.57) has slightly dipped today. There can be scope for a test of 186-185.90 before a bounce back towards 187 is seen in the medium term.

USDCNY (6.7662) has immediate resistance near 6.7850 below which the pair is likely to trade lower to test 6.75 in the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.70) has risen well but looks likely to remain in a sideways range of 0.7030-0.6960 for the near term till we see a breakout on either side of this range.

Pound (1.3361) has bounced well from support at 1.33 and while that holds, a slow rise towards 1.34-1.35 can be on the cards for the coming sessions.

USDINR (96.5750) could have some scope to test 96.20-96.00, given that crude prices have seen a decent decline back towards $ 90/barrel. This negates our earlier expected rise to 97 and limits immediate upside to 96.75. However, if any rise is seen, it can be limited to 97.

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. A strong fall in oil price after the news that the US-Iran peace talk can restart has dragged the yields lower. There is room to fall more to test their support. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible. The German Yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating around 6.85%. It can rise and test its resistance first and then resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (4.64%) and 30Yr (5.12%) yields have come down sharply. A test of 4.6%-4.55% (10Yr) and 5.05% (30Yr) looks likely before the broader upmove resumes.

The German 10Yr (3.17%) and 30Yr (3.65%) Yields have dipped. 3.15% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr) are good supports. While that holds, the upside will remain open to see 3.25% (10Yr) and 3.75% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.8253%) is oscillating around 6.85%. While above 6.8%, a rise to 6.9% can be seen first. Thereafter the downtrend can resume and see 6.7% and 6.6% on the downside.

Dow and DAX have bounced from key support and can remain within the 52000-53000 and 24700-25500 ranges respectively. Nifty has recovered from recent lows and can rise towards 24000-24100 in the near term. Nikkei has rebounded, but while below 66000, the downside towards 63000 remains intact. Shanghai has also recovered, but while below 3900, it remains vulnerable to a pullback towards 3750-3700.

Dow (52412.86, +0.55%) has bounced back from Friday’s low of 51846 as it failed to sustain below 52000. While 52000 holds, a further rise towards 53000 can be seen, keeping the index within the broad range of 52000-53000 for the next few sessions.

DAX (25347.69, +0.66%) failed to break below 24700 and has instead rebounded sharply above 25000. A break above 25500 is needed to trigger a further rise towards 26000. Otherwise, the index could continue to trade within the broad range of 24700-25500 for some time.

Nifty (23,767.45, -0.43%) has bounced back from the low of 23606.30 and closed above 23700 on Friday. Today, it could open with a gap up near 23850 and rise further towards 24000-24100 in the near term.

Nikkei (64935.67, +0.77%) has bounced back, but while it remains below 66000, our earlier mentioned view of a decline towards 63000 remains intact.

Shanghai (3825.47, +0.33%) has bounced back, but while below 3900, it remains vulnerable to a pullback towards 3750-3700.

Brent and WTI can decline further towards $ 85 and $ 80 respectively before entering a sideways phase. Gold continues to hold above the key $ 4000 support, keeping the broader $ 4000-$ 4200 range intact. Silver is likely to remain range-bound between $ 55 and $ 65. Copper has found support near $ 6.30 and can rise towards $ 6.50 if this level holds. Natural Gas remains range-bound within the $ 2.80-$ 3.00 range.

Brent ($ 92.92) and WTI ($ 85.39) have fallen after Iran reportedly stated that it would suspend attacks as long as a U.S. pause in hostilities remains in place. A further decline towards $ 85 and $ 80 respectively can be seen in the near term. Thereafter, a sideways range is likely to persist.

Gold ($ 4107.7) has bounced back, and while above $ 4000, the broad range of $ 4000-$ 4200 could remain intact for some time.

Silver ($ 59.91) has bounced back and can continue to trade within the broad $ 55-$ 65 range for some time.

Copper ($ 6.37) has found support near $ 6.30. If this level holds, our earlier mentioned decline may not materialise. Instead, it can rise further towards $ 6.50.

Natural Gas ($ 2.83) has declined and can continue to trade within the narrow range of $ 2.80-$ 3.00 for some time.

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Expected 86.10 …Previous 85.60

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index
…Previous 87.0

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index
…Previous 84.1

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
…Expected 1.60 % …Previous -4.48 %

FRIDAY’S DATA-:
————-
UK Cons Conf
…Expected -21 …Previous -23 …Actual-17

JP CPI
…Expected 1.60 …Previous 1.52 …Actual1.70

IN Flash Manufacturing PMI
…Previous 54.2 …Acctual53.9

IN Flash Services PMI
…Previous 57.4 …Actual 53.1

EU Flash PMI
…Expected 51.3 …Previous 51.4 …Actual52.0

UK Flash PMI
…Expected 52.0 …Previous 52.5 …Actual51.8

US New Home Sales
Expn. 623 K …Expected 604 K …Previous580 K …Actual 628 K