Most currencies look range-bound. The Dollar Index may test 99.40, holding above 99, while EURUSD and Dollar-Yen appear steady within 1.1680-1.1640 and 160-159. USDCNY has broken below 6.72 and could now be headed towards 6.70 soon. EURINR and EURJPY remain near key resistance levels, while Aussie needs a sustained break above 0.72 to target 0.73. Pound must hold above 1.36 to avoid decline to 1.3550-1.35. USDINR remains mixed, with Rupee strength dependent on a decisive move below 95.50. Else a rally back to 95.75/80 can be witnessed.

Dollar Index (99.113) looks stable above 99. There is scope for a slow drag up towards 99.40 while above 99. The index will have to break blow 99 for the index to regain bearish momentum. For the next few sessions the index may remain ranged above 99.

EURUSD (1.1654) is stable around 1.1650 and could remain so for the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (159.35) has also turned sideways and could trade in the 159-160 region for the next week as well till we get a decisive breakout on either side of the range.

EURINR (111.3483) tested 111 yesterday and has bounced back from there. If it continues to rise from here, it can soon target 112 else a decline back towards 111-110.50 may be possible.

EURJPY (185.74) is headed towards 186, a break above which is needed for the cross pair to gain further bullishness towards 187/188.

USDCNY (6.7197) has broken below 6.72 and needs to sustain to gain momentum for a fall towards 6.70 in the coming weeks.

Aussie (0.7197) has come up to test 0.72 as expected and it needs to break higher and sustain to head towards 0.7250-0.73 in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Pound (1.3592) needs to break above 1.36 to move up towards 1.37 else a dip from current levels if seen can be further bearish towards 1.3550.

USDINR (95.5450) tested 95.39 yesterday but could not sustain lower and instead rose to close higher at 95.5450. A sustained upmove from here will take it back towards 95.75/80 in the near term. A decisive break below 95.50 is necessary to look for any near term Rupee strength.

The US Treasury Yields have inched up further. The 10Yr can move up within its range and make a bullish breakout eventually. The 30Yr can also rise further from here. Market will closely watch the speech of Kevin Warsh in the Jackson Hole summit today evening. The German Yields have risen further. That keeps intact the overall bullish bias. The yields can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply. It has room to rise further and test its resistance from here. Thereafter it can turn down again.

The US 10Yr (4.67%) and 30Yr (5.2%) yields have inched further up. The view is bullish. The 10Yr can break its 4.59%-4.75% range on the upside and rise to 4.8% and even 5%. The 30Y can rise to 5.4%. Support is at 5.15%-5.1%.

The German 10Yr (3.25%) and 30Yr (3.75%) Yields are sustaining the bounce. That keeps the upside open to see 3.3%-3.35% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr). Any pull back move will find support at 3.15%-3.1% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.6% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (6.8901%) has risen sharply. 6.9% or even 6.95% can be seen on the upside. Thereafter the yield can fall back towards 6.8% again and even lower.

Global equities remain mixed. Dow can rise towards 54000, with a breakout opening further upside, while failure could trigger a pullback towards 53000 or lower. DAX is attempting to sustain above 26500 and can extend its rally towards 26750-27000. Nifty remains weak below 24100 and needs to reclaim this level to bring 24400 back into focus. Nikkei can rise towards 67500-68000, while Shanghai remains positive above 3850 and can advance towards 4000-4050.

Dow (53700.12, +0.15%) can rise towards 54000 in the coming sessions. Thereafter, it remains to be seen whether it breaks above this level or pulls back towards 53000 or lower.

DAX (26510.22, +0.45%) is attempting to break above 26500 and needs to sustain above this level to extend the rally towards 26750-27000.

Nifty (24,090.85, -0.48%) has slipped below 24100 and closed lower, contrary to our expectations. It needs to bounce back above 24100 to bring 24400 back into focus.

Nikkei (66640.67, +0.61%) can rise further towards 67500-68000 in the coming sessions.

Shanghai (3962.88, +0.15%) has risen in line with our expectations and can move further higher towards 4000-4050 in the coming sessions while above 3850.

Brent and WTI have moved higher, while their broader ranges of $ 80-$ 95 and $ 75-$ 90 respectively remain intact. Gold has dipped but remains bullish towards $ 4750-$ 4800, while Silver can break above $ 70 and rise towards $ 72-$ 75. Copper has recovered after testing $ 6.53 and is likely to remain range-bound between $ 6.50-$ 6.80 while below $ 6.80. Natural Gas remains constructive near $ 3.00, with a sustained break above this level opening the way towards $ 3.20-$ 3.50.

Brent ($ 88.46) and WTI ($ 83.33) have moved higher. The earlier mentioned ranges of $ 80-$ 95 and $ 75-$ 90 respectively can hold for some time.

Gold ($ 4637.60) has dipped, but our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 4750-$ 4800 in the near term.

Silver ($ 69.74) can break above $ 70 and move higher towards $ 72-$ 75 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.70) fell to a low of $ 6.53 yesterday, in line with our expectations. However, it has seen a gap-up opening near $ 6.69 today. While the resistance near $ 6.80 holds, a range of $ 6.50-$ 6.80 could remain intact for some time.

Natural Gas ($ 2.9150) tested a high of $ 2.99 yesterday, in line with our expectations. A break above $ 3.00 is needed to see a further rise towards $ 3.20-$ 3.50 in the coming sessions.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
…Expected 2.5 % …Previous 2.5 % …Actual 2.4%

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
…Expected 97.5…Previous 96.9

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Exp. 4.3 % …Expected 6.0 % …Previous 7.3%

DATA YESTERDAY:-
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No major data release yesterday.