The Dollar index has risen well but needs to sustain above 102 to ensure further upside, while the Euro trades below 1.13, indicating the start of a medium-term bearish movement. USDJPY can rise slowly towards 159 while EURJPY looks weak. EURINR could have limited downside and could soon bounce back in the coming sessions, while USDCNY could remain stable for this week. USDINR has mild scope to test 95.50 while above 96.35 before facing rejection from there towards 96-95.80. A decisive break above 96.50 could be bullish. Aussie and Pound could hold above crucial supports at 0.69 and 1.32 respectively.
Dollar Index (102) is trading higher, attempting to break 102 on the upside. If the rise is seen and sustained, we may have to look for further bullishness towards 103-104 in the medium term. Correspondingly, EURUSD (1.1236) is trading well below the crucial resistance at 1.13 and while that sustains, a slow decline towards 1.12/1.11 could be on the cards.
Dollar-Yen (157.48) has scope to see a slow rise to 159 while above 157.
EURJPY (176.95) has clearly broken below our earlier expected range of 181-178 and while below 178, the bearish view is clear and the decline could soon gain momentum towards 174/172 before pausing for a reversal in the coming weeks.
EURINR (108.0629) has declined to 108. There is support in the 108-107.50 region, which is likely to hold and produce a bounce back in the coming days.
USDCNY (6.7040) is likely to open mid week and continue trading within the 6.70/71 region for the rest of the week.
Aussie (0.6953) is holding above crucial support at 0.69. While the level holds, we may expect a bounce back towards 0.70/71 in the coming weeks. Similarly, Pound (1.3236) has crucial support at 1.32 above which we may expect a sharp rebound for the medium term back towards 1.34/35. Only a break below 1.32, if seen can turn it bearish towards 1.31/30 which looks unlikely at the moment.
USDINR (96.30) could see a dip back towards 96-95.80, if resistance near 96.35 or higher near 96.50 holds immediately. Else a straight rise to 97 could be on the cards. Watch price action near current levels for the next couple of sessions.
The US Treasury Yields have risen back well from their lows on Friday. Their support has held very well. That keeps intact our bullish view to see more rise. The German Yields have come down sharply. They can fall further and test their support. Thereafter, the broader upmove can resume. The 10Yr GoI has moved up further. The bullish view remains intact. The yield has room to rise further from here.
The US 10Yr (5.26%) and 30Yr (5.61%) yields are holding well above their support at 5.15%-5.1% (10Yr) and 5.55%-5.5% (30Yr). The bullish view is intact to see 5.3%-5.35% (10Yr) and 5.65%-5.7% (30Yr) on the upside
The German 10Yr (3.46%) and 30Yr (3.82%) Yields come down sharply. Support is at 3.35% (10Yr) and 3.75% (3Yr). While that holds, the upside will remain open to see 3.7% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (7.2133%) has moved up further. The bullish view is intact. The 10Yr GoI can rise to 7.25%-7.3%. Support is at 7.15% and 7.1%
Dow remains weak below 52000 and can decline towards 50000-49800. DAX needs to break 25500 for a rise towards 25750-26000. Nifty needs to sustain above 22600 for a rise towards 23000. Nikkei remains positive above 70000 and can rise towards 72000. Shanghai remains closed for the Golden Week holiday and resumes trading on October 8.
Dow (51512.11, +0.49%) has fallen below our expected levels, testing a low of 50552 before recovering above it. While below 52000, the index can decline further towards 50000-49800 in the coming weeks.
DAX (25458.20, +0.33%) has bounced back sharply after testing levels near 25000 on Friday as expected. A break above 25500 is needed for a rise to 25750-26000. Else can fall back to 25000 or lower.
Nifty (22,421.95, -0.88%) has slipped below 22500, contrary to our view, testing a low of 22217 before closing higher on Thursday. A gap-up opening near 22600 is possible, but the index needs to sustain above it. This would support a rise towards 23000 over the week.
Nikkei (70240.42, +0.44%) has risen to our expected levels of 70000. A decisive break above this level can open room for a further rise towards 72000.
Shanghai (3842.19, +0.31%) is currently closed for the Golden Week holiday and will resume normal trading on Thursday, October 8, 2026.
Brent and WTI remain positive above support, with further gains towards $ 105-$ 110 and $ 95-$ 100 possible. Gold needs to hold $ 4100 for a rise towards $ 4300-$ 4400. Silver needs to sustain above $ 60 for a recovery towards $ 63-$ 65. Copper remains weak and can decline towards $ 6.55-$ 6.50. Natural Gas can rise towards $ 3.10-$ 3.20 while above $ 2.91.
Brent ($ 101.77) and WTI ($ 90.42) have dipped, but while above their respective support levels, the direction remains upwards. A rise towards $ 105-$ 110 and $ 95-$ 100 respectively can be seen in the coming weeks.
Gold ($ 4184.80) needs to hold above its immediate support near $ 4100 to see a rise towards $ 4300-$ 4400.
Silver ($ 61.62) needs to hold above $ 60 to keep alive the chances of a rise towards $ 63-$ 65 in the near term. Otherwise, a break below $ 60 would trigger further bearishness.
Copper ($ 6.62) remains weak and can decline towards $ 6.55-$ 6.50.
Natural Gas ($ 3.03) has bounced back from a low of $ 2.91. While above this level, a further rise towards $ 3.10-$ 3.20 can be seen.
No maor data release today.
FRIDAY’S DATA:-
—————
JP Unemp
…Expected 2.4 % …Previous 2.4 % …Actual 2.5%
US NFP
jj Expn. 69K …Expected 98 K …Previous 162K
US Unemp Rate
…Expected 4.1 % …Previous 4.1
US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.1 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.3 –
US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3
