Most currencies are looking bullish against the US Dollar. Euro has moved above 1.16, Aussie and Pound could rise above 0.72 and 1.36 respectively while EURINR, Indian Rupee, Chinese Yuan can strengthen towards 111, 95.00 and 6.70 soon. USDJPY and EURJPY can rise in the near term towards 160 and 186 respectively.
Dollar Index (99.491) has dipped. We expect the index to trade within 100-99 for sometime before seeing a decisive break on either side.
EURUSD (1.1606) has risen back above 1.16 and could have fair scope to rise towards 1.1650-1.17 in the medium term. A broad trade range of 1.15-1.17 can hold for the next couple of weeks.
Dollar-Yen (159.84) has nterim support near 159.50, which, if broken, can drag the currency pair towards 159 or lower in the medium term. Only a decisive break above 160, if seen again, can turn the view bullish. Watch price action near 160 in the near term.
EURINR (110.47) could attempt to rise to 111 or higher in the coming days. View is bullish while above 110.
EURJPY (185.50) is headed towards 186 in the coming sessions. Thereafter a break above 186 needs to be seen and sustained for further bullishness.
USDCNY (6.7193) trades below 6.72. Sustained trade below 6.72 will take it lower towards 6.71-6.70 soon.
Aussie (0.7170) could attempt to re-test 0.72 in the coming days. Thereafter a break on the upside if seen and sustains can take it further up towards 0.73.
Pound (1.3543) holds stable for now but can rise towards 1.36 in the near term.
USDINR (95.1675) declined well yesterday. The spot could head towards immediate support at 95 from where a bounce can be expected.
The US Treasury Yields continue to move up sharply. The momentum seems to be strong. That can take it further higher from here. Outlook remains bullish. The German Yields have come into their key resistance zone. The price action in the next few days is going to be important. Failure to rise past their resistance zone can trigger a corrective fall. The 10Yr GoI is at a crucial resistance. It has to get a strong follow-through rise from here to negate our view of falling back. We will have to wait and see.
The US 10Yr (4.77%) and 30Yr (5.27%) yields have risen further sharply. The 10Yr has broken 4.75% and can now test 4.8%. The upside is open to see 5% in the medium term. The 30Yr can rise to 5.4%.
The German 10Yr (3.32%) and 30Yr (3.81%) Yields have moved into their key 3.3%-3.35% and 3.8%-3.85% resistance zone respectively. Failure to breach 3.35% (10Yr) and 3.85% (30Yr) can drag then lower going forward. We will have to wait and see.
The 10Yr GoI (6.9452%) rose sharply and touched a high of 6.9609%. While below 6.95%, the yield can fall back to 6.9%-6.85%. A sustained rise above 6.95% will negate this fall and can take it higher to 7% or even 7.15%.
Dow remains weak but can continue to trade within the 53000-54000 range while above 53000. DAX has turned weaker amid rising Middle East tensions and can test 26000, with the 26000-26600 range likely to hold for some time. Nifty remains vulnerable below 24200 and could decline towards 23800-23600 unless it decisively breaks higher. Nikkei is holding near 64600 support, with a bounce towards 67000-68000 possible if it sustains above this level. Shanghai remains positive but is likely to stay within the 3850-4000 range while below 4000.
Dow (53276.89, +0.07%) has fallen sharply in line with our expectations and can continue to trade within the mentioned range of 53000-54000 while above 53000.
DAX (26259.61, -0.25%) has plunged to a low of 26214 yesterday, contrary to our expectations, amid rising tensions in the Middle East. It can test 26000 in the coming sessions and trade within a range of 26000-26600 for some time.
Nifty (24,080.40, -0.39%) tested a low of 23993 before closing higher. A decisive break above 24200 is needed to move the index higher and avoid further bearishness towards 23800-23600.
Nikkei (66119.18, +0.30%) tested a low of 64620 yesterday. While this support holds, a bounce back towards 67000-68000 can be seen. Alternatively, a break below this level would drag the index further down towards 64000.
Shanghai (3981.56, -0.12%) has seen a sharp rise and can continue to trade within the range of 3850-4000 for some time while it remains below 4000.
Brent and WTI have moved higher, while their earlier mentioned ranges of $ 80-$ 95 and $ 75-$ 90 respectively remain intact. Gold has fallen below $ 4500 but remains positive above $ 4400, with scope for a bounce towards $ 4600-$ 4700. Silver can recover towards $ 70 and higher while above $ 66. Copper remains range-bound between $ 6.50-$ 6.80 while below the key $ 6.80 resistance. Natural Gas is consolidating below $ 3.00, with a break above this level potentially opening the way towards $ 3.25-$ 3.50.
Brent ($ 91.28) and WTI ($ 86.72) have moved higher. The earlier mentioned ranges of $ 80-$ 95 and $ 75-$ 90 respectively can hold for some time.
Gold ($ 4478.30) has fallen below $ 4500, but while it holds above $ 4400, we expect the price to bounce back towards $ 4600-$ 4700 in the coming weeks.
Silver ($ 67.08) can bounce back towards $ 70 and higher in the coming weeks while it holds above $ 66.
Copper ($ 6.72) has bounced back but faces immediate resistance near $ 6.80. While this resistance holds, our earlier mentioned range of $ 6.50-$ 6.80 could remain intact for some time.
Natural Gas ($ 2.93) has bounced back, and while below $ 3.00, a range of $ 2.70-$ 3.00 could hold for some time. Alternatively, a break above $ 3.00 could pave the way for higher levels of $ 3.25-$ 3.50.
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
…Expected 55.1 …Previous 54.5
1:45 07:15 CN PMI
…Expected 51.5 …Previous 50.9
5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Expected 52.9 …Previous 52.9
7:30 13:00 CH PMI
…Expected 54.1 …Previous 53.2
8:00 13:30 EU PMI
…Expected 52.8 …Previous 52.8
8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn.51.9 …Expected 51.5 …Previous 51.5
9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
…Exxpected 6.3 % …Previous 6.3 %
13:30 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 53.5
DATA YESTERAY:-
————-
IN GDP
…Expected 7.1% …Previous 7.8% ….Actual 7.8%
