The rising Dollar index continues to remain bearish for the Euro targeting 1.11 while USDJPY can see a slow rise towards 159 or higher and EURJPY can test 176 before a rebound is seen. EURINR has fallen sharply on sharp decline in USDINR yesterday could trade below 107, opening chances of a dip to 106. USDCNY could trade sideways for sometime while above 6.69. USDINR can attempt to test 95.50 or lower towards 95.30 but may soon bounce back towards 96 or higher. The current dip is likely to be short lived.
Dollar Index (102.46) is bullish while the index trades above 102 while EURUSD (1.1169) seems to be extending it’s decline towards 1.11. Overall medium term view is bearish below 1.13.
Dollar-Yen (158.37) looks sideways ranged while above 157 with a possible attempt for a slow rise to 159-160.
EURJPY (176.88) needs an immediate rise towards and above 178 in the next few sessions else can turn bearish towards 175.
EURINR (106.8209) has broken below 107 and trades lower. While below 107, view is bearish towards 105. The sudden fall in the cross pair is attributed to the decline in USDINR yesterday to levels below 96.
USDCNY (6.6938) can hold above 6.69 and consolidate above this level for sometime before declining further below it. Overall view is bearish for the long run.
Aussie (0.6955) is holding above crucial near term support at 0.69. While the level holds, we may expect a bounce back towards 0.70/71 in the coming weeks. The support for Pound (1.3216) seems to have shifted downwards to 1.3150 and while Pound trades above it, there is scope for a rebound back towards 1.33 or higher.
USDINR (95.78) closed higher after testing 95.59 yesterday. Unless the pair heads towards 95.50 or lower, it is likely to see a rebound back towards 96. The strength in the Rupee is likely to be short lived.
The US Treasury and the German Yields remain lower and stable. The downside remains limited for the US Treasury Yields. The outlook remains bullish and they are likely to rise back again. The German Yields on the other hand can dip further to test their support. Thereafter a fresh leg of rise can happen. The 10Yr GoI has surged yesterday. The bullish outlook is intact. The expected rise seems to be happening much faster.
The US 10Yr (5.24%) and 30Yr (5.60%) yields remain stable. The downside is likely to be limited to 5.15%-5.1% (10Yr) and 5.55%-5.5% (30Yr). The outlook remains bullish to see 5.35%-5.4% (10Yr) and 5.7%-5.75% (30Yr.
The German 10Yr (3.47%) and 30Yr (3.84%) Yields remain lower. They can test 3.35% (10Yr) and 3.75% (30Yr) first and then resume the uptrend targeting 3.7% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (7.3857%) has surged thereby making a decisive breakout above 7.3%. Our bullish view of seeing 7.5% remains intact. 7.3% can now be an immediate support.
Dow can rise towards 52500 on a decisive break above 52000, else it can fall back towards 51500 or lower. DAX is holding above 25000 with upside towards 25500. Nifty remains weak below 22600, with downside towards 22200-22000. Nikkei is coming down towards 67000. Shanghai remains weak below 3800 and can fall towards 3700.
Dow (51856.18, +0.38%) has moved higher to test the high of 51933 as expected before closing. A decisive break above 52000 will push the index towards 52500, from where a reversal can be seen. Failure to break 52000 will drag the index back towards 51500 or lower.
DAX (25277.68, +0.76%) is holding well above 25000 and has tested the high of 25315 so far. While it holds this level, the rise can extend towards 25500 in the coming week.
Nifty (22363.35, -0.70%) has tested the low of 22304 as expected before closing. Further decline towards 22200-22000 can be seen over the week while it stays below 22600.
Nikkei (67290.70, -2.50%) failed to reach 70000 and is coming down towards 67000 as expected.
Shanghai (3763.14, -0.90%) has slipped below 3800 as expected and has scope to decline further towards 3700 over the week.
Brent and WTI have risen sharply amid threats to global energy supplies and escalating attacks in the Middle East, with ranges of $ 100-$ 110 and $ 85-$ 100 likely to prevail, respectively. Gold can rise towards $ 4300-$ 4400 while above $ 4100, while silver needs to hold above $ 60 to target $ 63-$ 65. Copper could rise towards $ 6.80-$ 6.85, while Natural Gas may sustain within a range of $ 3.00-$ 3.50 as long as it holds above $ 3.00.
Brent ($ 105.45) and WTI ($ 92.64) prices settled sharply higher on Monday amid threats to global energy supplies. Saudi Arabia has witnessed an increase in attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen, while Iran has intensified attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the respective support levels hold, ranges of $ 100-$ 110 and $ 85-$ 100, respectively, could prevail for some time.
Gold ($ 4192.20) has pulled back, but as long as it holds above the support near $ 4100, the possibility of a rise towards $ 4300-$ 4400 remains alive.
Silver ($ 60.41) has pulled back and needs to hold above $ 60 to rise towards $ 63-$ 65.
Copper ($ 6.72) has fallen back, but we retain our view of a rise towards the previously mentioned levels of $ 6.80-$ 6.85 in the near term.
Natural Gas ($ 3.1620) could sustain a range of $ 3.00-$ 3.50 for some time as long as it holds above $ 3.00.
14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Exp. 4022 K …Expected 3960K …Previous 3980 K
DATA YESTERDAY:-
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IN CPI
Expn.4.9 …Expected 5.4 …Previous 4.8 …Actual 5.54
