The Dollar Index is likely to trade within 101.50–102.30, with a breakout needed to clarify the medium-term outlook, while EURUSD could consolidate within 1.11–1.1220 over the next few sessions. Dollar-Yen could test 158.30 before declining again; a decisive break above that is needed for further gains. EURJPY could rise towards 177/178, whereas EURINR has scope to fall towards 106–105.70. USDCNY continues to head towards 6.65, with a break below opening the way to 6.64/6.62 over the longer term. The Aussie could decline towards 0.69 or lower unless it breaks above 0.7070, while the pound remains bullish towards 1.34/35. USDINR could revisit 95.30–95.50 only if support at 94.90 holds; else a sustained break below 94.90 could instead take it towards 94.50. Watch price action at 94.90 today.
Dollar Index (101.91) has bounced back well from 101.544 but looks likely to trade within the 102.30-101.50 range for now. Thereafter, we have to see which way the index breaks out for clarity in the medium term view.
EURUSD (1.1169) can trade sideways within 1.1220-1.11 region for the next few sessions.
Dollar-Yen (157.79) could test 158.30 before again seeing a decline from there. A decisive break above 158.30 is needed for the pair to start rising upwards. On the other hand, EURJPY (176.28) could rise towards 177/178 soon.
EURINR (106.1734) has dipped and ha scope to fall towards 106-105.70 while the USDINR trades below 95.
USDCNY (6.6542) continues to fall towards 6.65, a break below which will accelerate the fall further towards 6.64/6.62 in the longer run.
Aussie (0.7029) has dipped from 0.7070 and unless a break above this level is seen there can be scope for a decline back towards 0.69 or lower in the near term.
Pound (1.3389) looks bullish towards 1.34/35 in the coming days.
USDINR (94.94) closed below 95 on Friday on possible intervention from the RBI. If the spot manages to hold above 94.90, our previous view of an eventual rise towards 95.30-95.50 will again come into the picture for the near term. Else, a break below 94.90, if seen and sustains can bring it back towards 94.50. Watch price action near 94.90 today.
The US Treasury Yields have bounced. But while they remain below their immediate resistance, the chances are high to see a fall first before the broader uptrend resumes. The German Yields are coming down as expected. They have room to fall further and test their support. After that the yields can rise back. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag it down going forward.
The US 10Yr (4.95%) and 30Yr (5.33%) Yields have risen back. But while below 5% (10Yr) and 5.4% (30Yr) a fall to 4.85% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) can still happen first. Thereafter a rise back to 5.15%-5.2% (10Yr) and 5.4% (30Yr) and higher is possible.
The German 10Yr (3.32%) and 30Yr (3.68%) Yields are coming down as expected. Resistance is at 3.4% (10Yr) and 3.75% (30Yr). They can touch 3.25% (10Yr) and 3.6% (30Yr) and then rise back to 3.7% (10Yr) and 4%-4.1% (30Yr).
The 10Yr GoI (7.4139%) has bounced back above 7.4% from the low of 7.3686%. But resistance at 7.45% can cap the upside and drag it down to 7.3%.
Global equities remain divided, with the Dow and DAX vulnerable below 52,000 and 26,000, and downside risk towards 51,500 and 25,500. Nifty stands out on relative strength, holding above 23,000, and a decisive break above 23,200 would open the way towards 23,400-23,600. Nikkei stays under pressure below 64,000, with 62,000 as the next downside marker. Shanghai remains fragile around 3,600, and a decisive break below it would expose 3,500.
Dow (51770.31, -1.09%) failed to sustain above 52000 and has fallen sharply to test the low of 51563 before closing, contrary to our earlier view. Support at 51500 remains important. A bounce from here could take the index back towards 52000. Else a break below 51500 would drag it towards 51000-50800 in the coming weeks.
DAX (25818.21, -0.85%) has come off from the high of 26026 as we had cautioned earlier. While it stays below 26000, the index has scope to decline further towards 25500 in the coming session.
Nifty (23053.10, +0.51%) held well above 22900 and managed to close above 23000, contrary to our earlier view. It may open with a gap up near 23200 today. A decisive break above 23200 is required to extend the move towards 23400-23600 in the coming session.
Nikkei (63232.41, -0.09%) has opened lower today and is moving higher. However, while it stays below 64000, the downside scope towards 62000 remains open over the week.
Shanghai (3604.91, +0.10%) looks weak around 3600. A decisive break below this level can drag the index towards 3500 over the coming week.
Brent and WTI staying on track toward target levels of $ 116 and $ 104 respectively. In precious metals, selling pressure has intensified as Gold broke below $ 4000 to hit a low of 3879 on Friday with risk down toward 3850–3800, while Silver dropped sharply to 48.90 with room to extend losses toward 45. Meanwhile, Copper tested 6.45 as expected and relies on support near 6.4 to cushion further declines for a potential near-term bounce. Natural Gas remains bound within a 2.7–3.2 range.
Brent ($ 113.43) and WTI ($ 102.21) have bounced back in line with our expectations and could rise further towards 116 and 104, respectively, in the near term.
Gold ($ 3915.90) has broken below 4000 and plunged to a low of 3879 on Friday. A further decline towards 3850–3800 can be seen in the near term.
Silver ($ 50.01) dropped beyond our expectations, plunging to a low of 48.90 on Friday. It remains vulnerable to a further decline towards 45 in the near term.
Copper ($ 6.52) fell to 6.45 in line with our expectations. Immediate support is seen near 6.4, which could cap the downside and trigger a bounce back in the near term.
Natural Gas ($ 2.9170) has fallen and is expected to trade within a range of 2.7–3.2 for some time.
1:45 07:15 CN PMI
…Previous 52.1 …Expected 52.0
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
…Expected 53.3 …Prevvvious 53.3 …Actual 53.3
5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
…Previous 54.9 …Expected 54.9
7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn. 56.7 …Previous 55.3 …Expected 55.3
8:00 13:30 EU PMI
….Previous 52.4 …Expected 52.4
8:30 14:00 UK PMI
j Expn 54.3 …Previous 52.8 …Expected 52.8
13:30 19:00 CA PMI
…Previous 51.5
15:00 20:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expnn. 55.3 …Previous 54.5 …Expeccted 54.7
FRIDAY’S DATA:-
—————-
JP Unemp
Expnn. 2.5 % …Expected 2.5 % …Previous 2.5 % …Actual 2.4 %
AU PPI
…Expected 1.0 % …Previous 1.3 % …Actual 1.1%
BOJ Meeting
…Expected 1.25 …Previous 1.25 …Actual 1.25
EU Unemp
Expn. 6.5 % ….Expected 6.4 % …Previous 6.5 …Actual 6.5 %
CA GDP
…Expected 0.2 % …Previous 0.0 % …Actual 0.0%
