Dollar Index needs to hold below 104 to fall towards 102 while Euro needs sustain above 1.08, else would be vulnerable to see 1.07-1.06. EURJPY has risen from 158.72 and could rise towards 160 before again declining back towards 158. Dollar Yen has sustained well above 146 can rise towards 148-150 in the near term. USDCNY continues to trade between 7.12-7.15/16. Aussie could fall towards 0.65 or lower while the resistance at 0.67 holds. Pound can be ranged below 1.27 for a while. USDRUB is rising as expected and is likely to test 92-94 on the upside. EURINR is falling sharply but could face some support at 90. USDINR could be ranged within 83.25-83.40.

Dollar Index (103.60) is headed towards the upper end of the 102.50-104 range. It would be crucial to see if the index breaks above 104 to rise further or falls back within the mentioned range.

EURUSD (1.0839) has broken below our expected support at 1.0850 and now needs to sustain above 1.08 to rise again towards 1.09, else a fall to 1.07-1.06 could be seen in the medium term.

EURJPY (159.51) contrary to seeing a fall towards 158, it has risen back from 158.72 but while it trades below 160, view remains biased to see a fall to 158. Watch price action at 160.

Dollar-Yen (147.17) seems to have held quite well above he support at 146 (low of 146.22 seen yesterday) and as mentioned earlier, a short rise to 148-150 could be witnessed before it continues to resumes its fall back to 147/146.

USDCNY (7.1458) continues to trade within 7.12-7.15/16 region, slowly moving up within the range. Overall view remains bearish while below 7.16.

Aussie (0.6604) faced rejection from resistance at 0.67 an while the fall continues, it can extend towards 0.65 or lower in the coming sessions.

Pound (1.2630) fell back sharply towards 1.26. It is important to see if it breaks below 1.26 as it could turn bearish for the medium term. Else an immediate range of 1.26-1.27 may hold for the now.

USDRUB (91.4651) is rising as expected and a further test of 92-94 could be seen in the coming sessions. Overall view is bullish above 90.

USDINR (83.3188) traded within 83.26-83.33 yesterday but rose past 83.30 on the NDF towards 83.40. Immediate range of 83.25-83.40 is holding well. There is some scope for an eventual rise to 83.50/60 on a break above 83.40 if the RBI allows.

EURINR (90.3986) continues to slowly inch down towards support at 90. It is crucial to see if it would bounce back from there towards 91+ or continue to fall lower towards 89/88. Watch price action at 90.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly. A break below their crucial supports if seen can extend bearish bias. The German yields continue to move down in line with our expectation. They have room to fall more in the coming sessions. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped yesterday and could trade within a narrow range for sometime before breaking higher eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.261%) and the 30Yr (4.415%) yields have recovered a bit after yesterday’s fall. 4.2% (10Y) and 4.35% (30Yr) continue to remain as crucial levels which if broken can drag them down to 4.1%-4% and 4.2%-4.15% respectively.

The German 10Yr (2.344%) and the 30Yr (2.571%) yields continue to decline as expected and can fall to 2.30% and 2.5% respectively as mentioned in yesterday’s edition. Immediate view is bearish.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2699%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2552%) dipped slightly yesterday. The 10Yr can hold below 7.30% for the next few sessions before moving up while the 5Yr yield could have scope to test 7.22% on a break below 7.25% before rising back to 7.30%. As mentioned in our earlier editions, the 10Yr looks relatively more positive to breach 7.3% and rise to 7.4% in the medium term. The 5Yr continues to remain mixed and unclear but could follow the 10yr in case of a sharp upmove.

Dow Jones lacks strength but outlook remains bullish while above the support at 36000-35800. DAX is heading up towards the key resistance as expected. Need to see if it breaks higher or falls back from there. Nifty has surged above 20500 and may look to rise further from here. Nikkei has broken below its sideways range and looks vulnerable to fall further while below 33000. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Dow (36204.44, -0.11%) lack strength to rise above 36200 but has managed to sustain higher above 36000. There is potential for a rise towards 36500 while it holds above 36000-35800. Thereafter we need to see if it falls back towards 35500 or extends the upmove.

DAX (16404.76, +0.04%) is heading up towards the key resistance at 16500-16600 as expected. If it breaks higher, a rise to 17000 can be seen before reversing back from there. Else a fall back to 16200-16100 is possible.

Nifty (20686.80, +2.07%) has risen sharply above 20500-20650. A further rise towards 21000 looks likely in the near term.

Nikkei (32765.50, -1.40%) has broken below the lower end of the 34000-33000 range. While this break sustains, a dip towards 32500 or even lower to 32000 can be seen.

Shanghai (3005.25, -0.59%) has declined towards 3000 as expected. A further fall towards 2950 looks possible in the near term.

Crude prices have declined towards their key support from where a possible bounce back can be seen. Gold, Silver and Natural gas remains vulnerable for the near term. Copper looks bearish to break below its immediate support at 3.80 and fall further.

Brent ($ 78.11) has come down towards $ 77 in line with expectations. While that holds, the $ 77-85 range may persist for some time. Only a break lower can see a deeper fall towards $ 75-74-73 levels.

WTI ($ 73.19) has declined towards $ 72 as expected. While $ 72-71.50 holds, a bounce back towards $ 78 can be seen. Only a break lower can see a further fall to $ 70 or lower.

As expected, Gold (2053.10) has declined sharply towards 2040 as the resistance at 2150 has held well. View is bearish to see a further fall to 2025-2000.

Silver (24.92) has fallen sharply below our expected level of 25. A dip towards 24.50-24 can be seen from here.

Copper (3.8375) has declined sharply towards 3.80 as expected. It might break below 3.80 and fall towards 3.76-3.72.

Natural Gas (2.6940) continues to dip. View remains bearish for a fall towards 2.60-2.50 before a reversal can happen.

3:30 9:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Previous 4.35%

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 59.5 …Expected 58.0 …Previous 58.4

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
7:30 13:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.8 …Expected 1.6 …Previous 1.7 …Actual 1.5