The Dollar Index and Euro remained stable but are headed to 105.50/106 and 1.07 respectively. USDJPY and EURJPY have risen to test our mentioned targets of 156/157 and 168 respectively. USDCNY holds above 7.22 and can further test 7.23-7.24 in the coming sessions. Aussie can fall to 0.65 if it does not see an immediate rise from current levels while Pound could hold above 1.2450 for a couple of sessions before falling towards 1.24/2350 before bottoming out in the medium term. EURINR could dip to 89.50/20 while below 90. USDINR is likely to hold within the range of 83.57/55-83.40/30.

Dollar Index (105.541) and EURUSD (1.0746) looks stable. We keep intact of possible test of 105.50-106 and 1.07 respectively in the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (155.56) and EURJPY (167.18) are nearing towards our mentioned target of 156-157 and 168 respectively in the near term. While the pairs hold above their respective supports of 152 and 164, the overall view continues to remain bullish.

USDCNY (7.2259) has sustained well above 7.22 and can rise towards 7.23/24 in the coming sessions.

Aussie (0.6573) continued to fall further to test 0.6558 on the downside, contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise towards 0.6650. Currently it has risen back and while above 0.6550, a narrow range of 0.6550/0.65-0.6650 is likely to hold in the near term.

Pound (1.2493) has recovered a bit from yesterday’s low of 1.2467 and if that holds, a range of 1.2450-1.26 can hold for some time. We are not ruling out the possibility of a fall towards 1.24-1.235 for now.

USDINR (83.5225) continues to trade higher within its range of 83.57/55-83.40/30 and can persist for some time unless a decisive break can be seen on either side of it.

EURINR (89.7221) broke above 89.50 we had mentioned yesterday but while below 90, view is bearish for a fall towards 89.50-89.20 in the near term.


The US Treasury yields have bounced back. But a strong follow-through rise from here is needed to move further higher. Else a fall to test their supports cannot be ruled out. The German yields are bouncing back from their key supports. While this sustains, there is room to rise more from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have inched up. But a strong follow-through rise from here is needed to avoid the fall and resume the uptrend from here itself. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.50%) and the 30Yr (4.65%) yields have inched up. The 10Yr has to get a sustained rise above 4.5% to move back up to 4.6% and avoid the fall to 4.4%-4.35% that we have been expecting. The 30Yr sustains above 4.6% but will need a strong follow-through rise to go back up to 4.8%. Else it can remain vulnerable to break 4.6% and fall to 4.5% and lower.

The German 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) yields have bounced back from near their support at 2.4% and 2.5% respectively. We repeat that while these supports hold, a rise back to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7% (30Yr) can be seen in the coming days.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1343%) has inched up further. A sustained rise past 7.16% is needed to negate the fall to 7% and rise to 7.3% straight away.

Similarly, the 5Yr GOI (7.1161%) has to get a sustained rise above 7.12% to move up further to 7.18% and higher. That will keep the doors open for the 5Yr to see 7.3%-7.4% without the falling to 7%.


Dow Jones remains bullish for the near term. DAX is coming closer to its resistance. Need to see if that holds or not. Nifty has recovered slightly from the support at 22200-22000 and while above it, the index has scope to extend the recovery further. Nikkei looks ranged within 39000-37000 for a while. Shanghai has scope to test key resistance at 3200 in the near term before a corrective fall can happen.

Dow (39056.39, +0.44%) continues to move up. It keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 39200-39500 on the upside.

DAX (18498.38. +0.37%) has moved up further and is coming close to the 18600 resistance. A break above it can take it up to 18800 and higher. We will have to wait and watch.

Nifty (22302.50, 0%) has risen back from the low of 22185. The first support at 22200 seems to be holding for now. But the charts look weak to test 22000. Important to see if 22000 is holding or not. We repeat that 22200-22800 (narrow) or 22000-23000 (broad) can be the trading range for some time.

Nikkei (38407.50, +0.57%) has bounced after testing 38115. Chances of dip towards 37000 cannot be ruled out while below 39000. Overall a narrow range of 39000-38000 and a broad range of 39000-37000 can hold for a while.

Shanghai (3145.73, +0.52%) hovers below 3150. Support is at 3100. While that holds, there is scope for a break above 3150 and rise towards 3200. Thereafter a corrective fall might be seen towards 3000.


Brent and WTI can rise towards their immediate resistance while above the support at $ 82 and $ 77.50-77. Gold is vulnerable to a fall while below 2350-2400. Silver has to rise past 28 to become bullish. Else it might trade within 28-26.30 for some time. Copper looks ranged between 4.47/4.50-4.70. Natural Gas outlook is bullish while above 2.1-2.05.

Brent ($ 83.82) fell to $ 81.71 on wednesday before bouncing back towards $ 84. For now the $ 82-85 range remains intact. While above $ 82, a rise towards $ 87 can be seen. However, in the medium term, a fall towards $ 80-75 cannot be ruled out.

WTI ($ 79.32) fell to a low of $ 76.92 before bouncing back towards $ 80. The support at $ 77.50-77 seems to be holding well, above which, a rise towards $ 81-82 is possible. However, a fall towards $ 75-70 cannot be ruled out in the medium term.

Gold (2316.70) is stuck between 2350-2300. Chances of fall towards 2250-2200 cannot be ruled out while below 2350-2400.

Silver (27.58) trades within a narrow range of 27-28. A rise past 28 is needed to open doors 29. Else it can remains ranged within 28-26.30 for a while.

Copper (4.5530) has bounced a bit after testing 4.5050. For now the 4.47/4.50-4.70 range remains intact. A break lower, if seen, can drag it down to 4.4-4.3.

Natural Gas (2.1790) has dipped from 2.2740. Support is at 2.1-2.05. While that holds, there are chances of break above 2.3 and rise towards 2.5.


11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – … Expected 5.25% … Previous 5.25%

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – … Expected 0-0-9 … Previous 0-1-8

Data Yesterday
No major data release yesterday.