The Dollar Index and Euro can head towards 106.30-106.50 and 1.0650 respectively. Watch out for the US PCE data release scheduled today for better clarity in the view. Dollar-Yen and EURJPY are headed towards 162 and 173/174 respectively and can see bullishness in the absence of any intervention from the BOJ. Aussie & Pound continue to trade sideways within 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28 respectively. USDCNY has dipped a bit but can still rise towards 7.28 while above 7.26. EURINR can trade within 89.00-90/91 region for some time. USDINR can continue to trade within its range of 83.67-83.40/30 in the near term.

The US GDP data release was at 1.4% in line with the market expectations. The Dollar Index (106.03) has resistance near 106.30/106.50 which can be tested in the near term. While that holds, a fall back towards 105.50-105.00 might be seen. Watch for price fluctuation post-US PCE data release today.

EURUSD (1.0693) saw some recovery yesterday from the low of 1.0678 but could not sustain and reversed from the level of 1.0726. Immediate support can be spotted around 1.0650 above which, a narrow range of 1.0650-1.0750 can hold. However, there could be chances of a downside extension to 1.06 as well.

Dollar-Yen (160.87) and EURJPY (172.09) has been rising well. If the Yen weakens further, then a test of 162 on USDJPY and 173/174 on EURJPY would look more likely. Caution still remains to see whether any intervention comes in from the BOJ post the US PCE to protect Yen against the fluctuations or not. Absence of intervention from BOJ could let the pairs continue bullishness in the coming months.

USDCNY (7.2661) has declined a bit, but while above 7.26, a slow rise towards 7.28 is expected in the medium term. Overall, the view remains bullish above 7.25/26.

Aussie (0.6635) and Pound (1.2636) can continue to trade within their respective ranges of 0.6580-0.6720 and 1.26-1.28, unless a decisive break is seen on either side of the range.

USDINR (83.4650) has fallen below 83.50 and tested a low of 83.43 before closing higher at 83.4650. The immediate range of 83.67-83.40/30 is intact, but chances of seeing a rise towards 83.70-83.80 cannot be ruled out in the medium term. The Indian bonds will be included in J.P. Morgan’s Emerging Market Bond Index today. Need to see how that will impact Dollar-Rupee.

EURINR (89.2438) is currently trading lower within its range of 89-90/91. Only a break below 89 if seen, could open doors for a fall to 88.50-88 in the medium term. Else the range is likely to persist for a while.


The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. They will need a strong follow-through rise from here to move up and avoid falling back to test their support. The US PCE data release today is going to be very important. The German yields remain stable. While the recent bounce from their support sustains, a further rise is possible in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable. They can rise further from here going forward.

The US 10Yr (4.31%) and the 30Yr (4.46%) yields have dipped slightly. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to go up to 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) and completely negate the fall to 4.2%-4.1% (10Yr) and 4.35%-4.25% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.44%) and the 30Yr (2.63%) yields remain stable. While the bounce from their support at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.55% (30Yr) sustains, a further rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) can be seen in the coming days.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9992%) and the 5Yr GoI (6.9958%) have dipped slightly. We retain our view of the yields rising to 7.05%-7.06% while they sustain above 6.95% (10Yr) and 6.97% (5Yr).


Dow Jones is holding well above its immediate support and while above it, the view remains bullish for the short term. DAX and Shangahi appear range-bound. Nifty has risen and closed just above 24000 but it needs a decisive break above 24000-24150 for increased bullishness or else a corrective fall cannot be ruled out. Nikkei has bounced back well towards 39800 and looks bullish to target further upside in the near term.

Dow (39164.06, +0.09%) sustains above 39000 and is inching up. While above the 39000-38800 support zone, the bias is bullish to see a rise to 40000-40100 in the short term.

DAX (18210.55, +0.30%) remains stuck between 18000 and 18400. A breakout on either side of these levels will decide whether the DAX can rise to 18600-18800 or fall to 17700-17600.

Nifty (24044.50, +0.74%) risen and closed just above 24000. Resistance is at 24150 which has to be broken to get an extended rise to 24500. Failure to breach 24150 can trigger a corrective fall to 23500.

Nikkei (39637.50, +0.85%) has bounced back sharply towards 39800. Bias remains positive for a rise towards 40000-41000 as long as it holds above the support at 38500-38000.

Shanghai (2972.65, +0.91%) keep oscillating around 2950. For now, it has managed to hold above 2930. We can expect a range of 2900/2930-3000 to persist for a while.


Brent and WTI have bounced back sharply but need to rise past $ 86 and $ 82 respectively to strengthen the bullish case. Gold has bounced back keeping the broad range of 2300-2400 intact. Silver, Copper, and Natural Gas have resistance overhead, while below which, bias remains bearish for the near term.

Brent ($ 85.56) and WTI ($ 81.15) bounced back sharply above $ 85 and $ 81 contrary to our view of seeing a fall towards $ 83-82.50 and $ 78. Both have to rise past $ 86 (Brent) and $ 82 (WTI) to become bullish towards $ 87.50-90 and $ 84-85. Else could be ranged between $ 86-84 and $ 82-80 for some time.

Gold (2332.80) bounced sharply to 2342 from 2300. As mentioned yesterday, a strong break below 2300 is needed to become bearish towards 2270-2250-2200. Else it may continue to trade sideways between 2300-2400 for a while.

Silver (29.26) tested 29.58 yesterday before coming off from there. It has to surpass the resistance at 29.50/55-30 to turn bullish. Else a fall towards 27.50-27.00 cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Copper (4.3635) is hovering below 4.4. Resistance is at 4.45-4.50, while below which, the view remains bearish for a fall towards 4.24/4.20 in the near term.

Natural Gas (2.7040) has dipped further as the resistance at 2.8 held well. It can fall towards 2.6-2.5 from here.


23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.5% … Expected 2.6% … Previous 2.6%

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.6% … Previous -0.3%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.4% … Expected 0.4% … Previous 0.3%

12:30 18:00 US PCE
Expn 0.2 … Expected 0.3 … Previous 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Core PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.2% … Expected 0.1% … Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – … Expected 0.3% … Previous 0.0%

Data Yesterday
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 95.3 … Expected 96.3 … Previous 96.1 …Actual 95.9

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders MoM
Expn 0.98% … Expected -0.1% … Previous 0.24% …Actual 0.11%

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn – 1.42% … Expected 1.4% … Previous 1.24% …Actual 1.40%