Major currencies were highly volatile in the last couple of sessions as expected. The Dollar Index, AUDUSD, Pound, EURINR remained volatile within respective ranges of 103.00-105.50/60, 0.67-0.65, 1.3150-1.2900 and 92-90. The ranges are likely to hold in the near term until further directional clarity. Euro needs to see a sustained rise past 1.08, else while below it, the pair can be vulnerable to test 1.06. USDJPY may trade within 155-152/150, while EURJPY has slipped below 165 and if the fall continues, can test 162 soon. USDCNY remains uncertain for now. The immediate target on the upside is coming around 7.22, while the support is around 7.14. USDINR had risen well and while above 84.30, there is enough room for the pair to test 84.50.

Dollar Index (105.015) rose sharply to the high of 105.20 on Friday before declining a bit. Higher yields and possible speculation of less aggressive rate cuts by FED going forward might have supported the rise. Still, a decisive break on either side of the 103.00-105.50/60 range will be needed for further directional clarity. Until then the range can persist.

EURUSD (1.0723) failed to sustain its rise past 1.08 and started coming off. A confirmed rise past 1.08 is needed for a rise towards 1.09 or higher. Else, while below 1.08, it could be vulnerable to test 1.06 on the downside before establishing a medium-term low. Watch price action above 1.07.

Dollar-Yen (153.34) remained subdued on Friday despite the strength in Dollar but has risen today with immediate support at 152. EURJPY (164.44) on the other hand slipped below the range of 167-165 and trades below 165. USDJPY may trade within 152-155 with lower possibility to test 150 soon while EURJPY has immediate support around 162, which can be tested if the fall extends further below 165.

China, on 08-Nov announced a substantial economic stimulus package worth approximately $ 1.4 trillion. Despite that, USDCNY (7.1818) rose sharply as the markets assessed that the stimulus might not be sufficient to stabilize the economy. The outlook appears to be uncertain for now and until further directional clarity. The immediate target on the upside is coming around 7.22 and the support is near 7.14. Bearishness will strike in only on a strong break below 7.10.

Aussie (0.6587) witnessed a sharp fall to the low of 0.6558 before recovering a bit from there. Overall, a broad range of 0.67-0.65 can hold in the near term.

Pound (1.2916) is nearing the lower end of the mentioned range of 1.3150-1.2900. A break on either side will be needed for medium-term directional clarity. Note, bearishness will strike in on a confirmed break below 1.28.

USDINR (84.3750) remained volatile for the entire last week. Currently, it is holding well above the immediate support of 84.30, above which it has a fair chance of testing 84.50. At the same time, we will have to see whether RBI intervenes around current levels to protect Rupee or not.

EURINR (90.5107) continues to remain volatile within our revised range of 92-90. Immediate support can be spotted around 90.50, while it holds; the cross can bounce back higher in the coming sessions. Overall, the 92-90 range is expected to remain intact for a while.

The US Treasury yields have come down further. The resistances have held well as expected. Outlook is bearish. The yields have room to fall further. The US CPI data release on Wednesday will be an important event to watch this week. The German yields have come down sharply. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the bullish view intact. The yields can reverse higher and go up in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI has come down towards the lower end of its range. We expect it to rise back from here and up towards the upper end of the range. The bias is positive to see a bullish breakout of this range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.30%) and 30Yr (4.47%) yields have come down further. That keeps intact our bearish view. The yields can fall to 4.2%-4% (10Yr) and 4%-4.2% (30Yr). Resistances at 4.4% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) must be broken to negate the bearish view.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.60%) yields have declined sharply. But support is at 2.3% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr). While these supports hold, the bullish view is intact to see 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) on the upside. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8113%) has come down towards the lower end of the 6.8%-6.88% range. We expect the yield to retain this range and go up towards the upper end in the coming days. Eventually, we expect it to break 6.88% and rise to 6.9% and 7% over the medium term.

The Dow Jones briefly rose above the 44000, reaching a high of 44157.29 before closing just below the 44000 mark. Upside potential remains capped near the resistance of 44500. Meanwhile, the DAX lacks momentum to surpass 19500 and has retreated to 19200. A sustained hold above 19000 is essential to keep the outlook for a potential rise toward 19800-20000 intact. The Nifty closed lower, showing limited upside strength above 24600. A drop below 24000-23700 would shift focus to downside targets to 23500-23000. The Nikkei remains stable, trading between 39000 and 39500, with a potential pullback to test the 39000 support level before attempting a move towards 40000. In China, the Shanghai Composite is approaching the 3400 mark, as recent stimulus measures fell short of market expectations.

The Dow (43988.99, +0.59%) rose to a high of 44157 and has come down. Resistance in the 44000-44500 zone can halt the current rally. The Dow can see a reversal towards 42000-41000 going forward. We prefer to be on the sell side of the market.

DAX (19215.48, -0.76%) is range bound between 19000 and 19600. While above 19000, the bias is bullish to break 19600 and rise to 19800-20000.

Nifty (24,148.20, -0.21%) remains lower. While below 24600 the bias is negative to see 24000-23800 and even 23500 in the coming weeks.

Nikkei (39374.74,-0.39%) remains steady and trades between 39000 and 39500. It may pull back to test the 39000 before attempting a move towards 40000.

Shanghai (3430.5295, -0.64%) trades above 3400 and while it holds, a rise towards 3500 can be seen. Otherwise, a break below 3400 would extend to 3350-3300.

Crude prices stumble on weaker China energy demand. Brent and WTI could fall towards $ 67 and $ 71 respectively in the near term, while below their immediate resistance levels. Metal prices have traded lower on Friday. Gold and Silver can fall towards 2650-2600 and 30.5-30.0 respectively in the near term, while Copper can rise towards 4.4-4.5 above support at 4.3. Natural Gas has dipped but while above 2.6 it could rise towards 2.9-3.0 in the near term.

Brent ($ 73.63) plunged to a low of 73.44 after Chinese stimulus measures were seen as underwhelming, which may keep Chinese economic growth and energy demand subdued. The price can fall further towards $ 72-71 in the near term, keeping a broad range of $ 76-71 intact for some time.

WTI ($ 70.04) fell to a low of 69.99 on Friday. While below $ 73, it can test $ 67 on the downside and trade between $ 67-73 for some time.

Gold ($ 2683.50) has fallen back below 2700 contrary to expectation, and this level is now holding as a good resistance. Only a sustained break above 2700 can take it higher towards 2750-2800. Else while below 2700, it can fall towards 2650-2600 and trade between 2700-2600 for some time. Currently we give higher weightage for the second possibility.

Silver (31.41) has fallen slightly to 31.30 from a high of 32.17 on Friday. While 32.5 holds, it can fall towards 30.5-30.0 in the near term.

Copper (4.3170) took reversal from 4.4390 and fell sharply to its immediate support near 4.3. While this support holds, a bounce back to 4.4-4.5 can take place in the near term. A sustained break below 4.3, on the other hand, if seen could turn out bearish for Copper towards 4.2-4.1 in the medium term.

Natural Gas (2.8220) saw a dip to 2.6430 on Friday due to mild US autumn weather that will reduce heating demand for Nat-gas. The price has opened higher today at 2.77 and while above 2.6, it can rise towards 2.9-3.0 in the near term. A range of 3.0-2.6 can hold for some time.

No major data release today.

DATA SATURDAY:-
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1:30 07:00 CN CPI (YoY)
… Exp – …Expected 0.4 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.3

1:30 07:00 CN PPI
… Exp – …Expected -2.5 …Previous -2.8 …Actual -2.9