The Dollar Index has immediate upside capped at 101 and below it that view remains intact to see a fall towards 98-96. The Euro can head towards 1.15-1.16, while it trades above 1.12. EURINR has interim resistance at 97.50, need to see whether it holds or continue the rise further. EURJPY on a break below 162 can test 160 on the downside. Overall, it can broadly remain ranged within 165-160 region. USDJPY below 144 can extend the rise to 142-140 in the coming sessions. AUDUSD continues to trade within the range of 0.650-0.635 for a while. The USDCNY can broadly remain ranged within 7.22-7.18 region for a while. Pound needs to rise past 1.35 to test upper resistance at 1.36. Else, a fall back towards 1.32-1.31 can happen. The USDINR rose past 86 yesterday. The outlook at the moment appears uncertain. Will have to wait for the market to open to see whether it rises towards 86.25/50 or falls back towards 85.50. US New Home Sales data release scheduled today.

Dollar Index (99.679) has been oscillating within 100-99 region since the last 2-3 sessions. Even if it attempts to rise back, the overall upside looks capped at 101. While below 101, the targets of 98-96 are kept alive.

EURUSD (1.1311) has dipped slightly yesterday. The support near 1.12 can be tested if the fall continues further before resuming its uptrend towards 1.15-1.16 as the overall outlook appears bullish in the medium term.

EURINR (97.2642) has risen as anticipated so far but faces the interim resistance near 97.50 level. A break past it will be needed towards 98-99, else a corrective dip to 96 can be seen before the cross starts ascending higher.

EURJPY (162.42) had slipped below 162 to the low of 161.80 but later recovered as well. A decisive break below 162 can drag it further to 160 in the near term. Overall, the broad range of 165-161/60 can hold for some time.

Dollar-Yen (143.58) tested the low of 142.80 before recovering from there. Still, while it trades below 144, the fall can get extended to 142-140 as well.

USDCNY (7.2032) below 7.22 can test 7.18/15 before halting. To negate our bearish bias the USDCNY will have to rise past 7.22, which seems less likely. Chances are that pair can broadly trade within 7.22-7.18 region for a while.

Aussie (0.6433) needs to see a decisive break on the either side of its range of 0.650-0.635 for further directional clarity.

Pound (1.3445) is hovering below the resistance near 1.3470-1.350 region. A rise past 1.35 will be needed to head towards the upper resistance at 1.36. Else, failure to do so can bring it lower towards 1.32-1.31. Watch price action closely around the current levels.

USDINR (85.9550) broke past its range of 85-86, tested the high of 86.1050 before coming down. Outflows from FII’s due to selling in Indian equities supported the rise. The pair will have to see a follow-through rise today to head towards 86.25/50 or higher. Else, it can fall back towards 85.70/50.

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply failing to sustain the rise. Support is there near current levels which if broken can drag them further lower. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields sustain higher. Outlook remains bullish, and there is room for the yields to rise further. The 10Yr GoI has bounced. But upside can be capped. View remains bearish. The yield can fall back again.

The US 10Yr (4.52%) and 30Yr (5.03%) Treasury yields have come down sharply from their highs of 4.63% and 5.15% respectively. The 10Yr can fall to 4.4% on a break below 4.5%. The 30Yr can test 4.9% on a fall below 5%. Wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.64%) and 30Yr (3.15%) yields remain higher and stable. The bullish view is intact to see 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.2% (30Yr) on the upside.

The 10Yr GoI (6.2726%) has bounced slightly but is unlikely to sustain. The bias remains bearish to see 6.2% on the downside. Resistance at 6.3%-6.35% can cap the upside.

Dow and Dax look stable. Dow needs to sustain above 41500 to rise slowly towards 42500-43000, while Dax needs to see an immediate rise to avoid a fall to 23500-23000 and instead target upper levels of 24500-25000. Nifty has scope for a further dip to 24000 before turning up towards 24800-25000 in the coming 1-2 weeks. Nikkei could rise slowly towards 38000-39000 while above 37000. Shanghai can trade within 3400-3350 for some time.

The Dow (41714.43, -0.0032%) traded within 42090-41714 before closing at 41714.43. If the index remains above 41500, a slow bounce back towards 42500-43000 could be seen in the coming week, else the fall can extend towards 41000. We may expect some stable movements in the next few sessions while below 43000.

DAX (23999.17, -0.51%) has seen a slight dip, but if the index rises immediately, it can target 24500-25000 in the coming week. Else, while below 24000, the index could face a correction towards 23500-23000. Watch price action to see if there is an immediate bounce from current levels.

Nifty (24609.70, -0.82%) tested 24462, breaking below our mentioned 24600. There is scope for a further dip to 24000 before a reversal is seen in the coming days, back towards 24800-25000. Our bullish targets of 25200-25400 can be negated for the very near term.

Nikkei (37333.26, +0.94%) has risen today. The index turned from a low of 36855 instead of our expected 36000. If it manages to sustain above 37000, it can rise slowly towards 38000-39000 in the coming 1-2 weeks.

Shanghai (3383.32, +0.093%) is stable today and could attempt to slowly rise towards resistance at 3400 in the near term, from where a decline can be witnessed towards 3350 or lower. A break past 3400 will be necessary to see a rally towards 3500 or higher.

Crude prices are falling contrary to earlier bullish expectations, with possible declines toward $ 60 ,(Brent) and $ 56 (WTI) respectively amid OPEC+ production concerns. Gold remains on track for a rise toward $ 3,400–$ 3,450 despite a minor dip. Silver has dropped from resistance at $ 34 and may decline further toward $ 32. Copper shows mixed signals but leans slightly bullish if it breaks above $ 4.7. Natural Gas rebounded strongly after a steep fall, and while above $ 3.5, it could move up towards $ 4.

Brent ($ 64.14) is declining contrary to our expectations of an upward move, due to concerns that OPEC+ might increase production again in July. It could possibly break below $ 64 and fall further towards $ 62–$ 60 in the near term, and may trade within a broad range of $ 66–$ 60 for some time.

WTI ($ 60.86) is also falling and could potentially break below $ 60, declining further towards $ 58–$ 56, thereby invalidating our earlier bullish outlook. Overall, a broader range of $ 64–$ 56 could hold for a while.

Gold ($ 3,303.70) experienced a slight dip to $ 3,277 yesterday, but our view remains unchanged for a rise towards $ 3,400–$ 3,450 in the coming weeks.

Silver ($ 33.28) faced resistance at $ 34 as expected, and the price has dropped sharply to $ 32.74 after reaching a high of $ 33.92 yesterday. While it remains below $ 34, we expect a further decline towards $ 32.5–$ 32.0 in the near term.

Copper ($ 4.6850) tested a low of $ 4.5690 but rebounded strongly to close higher at $ 4.6795 yesterday. The price needs to break above $ 4.7 to turn bullish towards $ 4.9–$ 5.0 or fall below $ 4.6 to turn bearish towards $ 4.5–$ 4.4. We will have to wait and watch, although our bias leans slightly towards the bullish scenario.

Natural Gas ($ 3.6780) plunged to $ 3.23 yesterday after the weekly EIA inventory report exceeded expectations, but has opened sharply higher today with a gap-up at $ 3.6720. As long as it stays above $ 3.5, it could rise further towards $ 3.8–$ 4.0 in the near term.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
… Exp -25 … Expected -22 … Previous -23

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
… Exp 3.4 … Expected 3.5 … Previous 3.6

14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
… Exp 748K … Expected 696K … Previous 724K

DATA YESTERDAY
……………
9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
… Exp 87.1 … Expected 87.7 … Previous 86.9 …Actual 87.5

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
… Exp85.6 … Expected 87.0 … Previous 86.4 …Actual 86.1

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
… Exp87.9 … Expected 88.3 … Previous 87.4 …Actual 88.9

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
… Exp 3921K … Expected 4150K … Previous 4020K …Actual –