The Dollar Index and Euro are range bound between the broad 98-99.50 and 1.16-1.18 region. USDJPY can trade within 157-160 region for the near term while the EURJPY is stuck in the 186-188 zone. EURINR may rise towards 111-112 on a sustained rise above 110. Pound can be headed towards 1.34/33 on a sustained fall below 1.35. Aussie can trade within 0.70-0.72 region for the near term while the Yuan headed towards 6.85. USDINR has risen sharply as expected and could cap it’s immediate upside to 94.30 from where a rejection is expected towards 93.50.
Dollar Index (98.811) is headed towards interim resistance at 99. If it faces rejection from there, it can fall back to 98. Above 99, the index can test 99.50 before declining from there. Overall the 98-99 range may hold with some chances of testing 99.50 on the upside.
EURUSD (1.1684) has fallen below our expected support at 1.17 and could now be headed towards 1.1650-1.16 soon.
EURINR (110.0137) is hovering near 110. A sustained rise above this level is needed for a rise towards 111-112. Else a decline back to 109/108 can be seen.
EURJPY (186.70) looks range bound between 186-188 region for the near term.
Dollar-Yen (159.76) is headed towards 160-160.50 from where we may see a rejection back towards 158/157. The broad range of 160.50-157 may hold for a few weeks till we get further directional clarity on a break on either side of the range.
USDCNY (6.83559) is headed towards 6.85 in the near term, a break above which is needed for the price to move up further towards 6.87/8750. Failure to break above 6.85 can bring it back towards 6.80.
Aussie (0.7130) is likely to fall to 0.71/70 while below resistance at 0.72.
Pound (1.3469) has dipped below 1.35 and if the fall sustains, there can be scope for a fall to 1.34/33 soon.
USDINR (94.1150) has risen as expected but the immediate upside could be capped at 94.30 from where a decline back towards 93.50 could be possible.
The US Treasury Yields have inched up. Need to see if they can break their upcoming resistance and move higher or not. The German Yields continue to remain stable. They must get a strong rise from here to avoid falling back. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI seems to be attempting to make a bullish breakout of its range. A strong follow-through rise today is needed to confirm this breakout and go higher.
The US 10Yr (4.33%) and 30Yr (4.92%) Treasury yields have inched up. Need to see if they can break the 4.2%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.85%-4.95% (30Yr) range on the upside now and rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr). Wait and watch.
The German 10Yr (3.02%) and 30Yr (3.55%) yields continue to remain stable. We repeat that a strong follow-through rise is needed from here for a rise to 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr). Else they can fall to 2.9% (10Yr) and 3.5%-3.45% (30Yr) first.
The 10Yr GoI (6.9498%) is attempting to make a bullish breakout of its 6.85%-6.95% range. A sustained rise above 6.95% can take the yield up to 7%.
Dow can fall towards 49000-48500, while DAX may test 24000 before a bounce. Nifty is drifting lower towards 24000 but may rebound towards 24400-24600 thereafter. Nikkei remains capped below 60000 and needs a breakout to move towards 61000-62000. Shanghai has corrected from recent highs and may test 4000 before stabilizing.
Dow (49358, -0.26%) is falling in line with our expectations and can decline towards 49000-48500 in the near term.
DAX (24205, -0.48%) is falling in line with our expectations and can test 24000 in the near term before a bounce back is seen.
Nifty (24,173.05, -0.84%) tested a low of 24134.80 yesterday. Going ahead, the decline may extend towards 24000 before a potential rebound towards 24400-24600 is seen in the near term.
Nikkei (59410, +0.69%) has fallen back and needs a sustained break above 60000 to move higher towards 61000-62000.
Shanghai (4072.58, -0.47%) surged to a high of 4114.84 and has fallen back sharply from there. A test of 4000 can be seen in the coming sessions before any bounce back takes place.
Crude prices remain firm but volatile amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty. Brent can rise towards $ 110-$ 115, while WTI may test $ 100 before any pullback. Precious metals have weakened with Gold vulnerable towards $ 4600 and Silver towards $ 70. Copper has corrected but can recover towards $ 6.15-$ 6.20 while holding above $ 5.80. Natural Gas may remain range bound between $ 2.80-$ 2.55 with limited upside.
Brent ($ 106.05) surged to a high of $ 107.40 in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 110-$ 115 can be seen in the near term. The direction remains unclear as the market is highly volatile due to uncertainty in the Middle East.
WTI ($ 96.77) is moving up gradually and can test $ 100 before any pullback is seen. The direction remains unclear due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East.
Gold ($ 4706) is falling contrary to our expectations and looks vulnerable to a decline towards $ 4600.
Silver ($ 75.3) is falling contrary to our expectations and can decline towards $ 70 in the near term.
Copper ($ 6.02) has pulled back sharply contrary to our expectations, but the view remains intact for a rise towards $ 6.15-$ 6.20 while above $ 5.80.
Natural Gas ($ 2.7250) has pulled back contrary to our expectations. The upside looks capped near $ 2.80 and it can trade within a $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for some time.
GMT 23:30 IST 23:30 JP Unemp
…Previous 2.60
GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
…Previous 0.75
GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
…Previous 5.2
GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
0.60 …Previous 1.20
GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
85.15 …Previous 91.80
DATA YESTERDAY
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GMT 23:01 IST 04:31 UK Cons Conf
…Market -25 …Previous -21
GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
…Market 1.7 …Previous 1.26
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Market 84.8 …Previous 86.4
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Market 85.5 …Previous 86.7
GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Market 83.9 …Previous 86.0