The Dollar Index has dipped and could test 98/97.50 before bouncing higher while Euro can test 1.18 or slightly higher before retracing from there. EURINR is likely to head towards 112-112.50 while above crucial support at 110. EURJPY can rise towards 187.50 while above 186.25 but USDJPY is likely to remain range bound within the 157.50-160.50 region. USDCNY has scope to test 6.855 while above 6.81. Pound can be headed towards 1.3575 before falling back towards 1.35/34 while Aussie can test 0.72/0.7250 before declining from there. USDINR has crucial resistance at 94.35 below which we may expect a pull back towards 94.00-93.75.

Dollar Index (98.495) is falling sharply from 99.35 today. The fall can extend to 98-97.50 on the downside before a bounce back towards 99-99.50 is seen in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.1722) has held above interim support at 1.1670 and bounced back from there. A sustained rise above 1.17 is now needed for a rise towards 1.18-1.1850. Overall a broad range of 1.1650-1.1850 might hold for the next couple of weeks.

EURINR (110.48) has broken above the crucial medium-term resistance at 110 and is now likely to head towards 112-112.50 in the near term. View is bullish while above 110.

EURJPY (186.83) has risen and could be headed towards 187.50 in the next few sessions while above 186.25.

Dollar-Yen (159.39) is stuck within the 157.50-160.50 region and is likely to continue trade within this zone for some more time unless we see a clear decisive breakout on either side of this range.

USDCNY (6.8284) would have scope to test 6.855 while it remains above 6.81. The pair will become vulnerable to a sharp decline only on a break below 6.81/80. Till then the broad range of 6.81-6.855 is expected to hold.

Aussie (0.7166) has moved up on Dollar weakness. While above 0.71, Aussie can head towards 0.72-0.7250 before again facing rejection from there. For the near term 0.71 is a very crucial support.

Pound (1.3532) has risen on Dollar weakness and can test immediate resistance at 1.3575, a break above which is needed for a further rise towards 1.36 or higher; else Pound could retrace back towards 1.35/34 in the medium term.

USDINR (94.2525) has resistance near 94.35 and further higher at 94.50 which is expected to hold and produce a decline towards 93.75/50 soon. A break above 94.50, if seen would trigger a sharp rise towards 95 or higher in the coming days. Dollar weakness today could help the Rupee to appreciate while below the 94.35 resistance level.

The US Treasury Yields are struggling to break their resistance. That can continue to keep then inside the current sideways range. Need to wait for the bullish breakout to happen. We will have to wait and see if the Fed meeting on Wednesday is providing the needed trigger for this bullish breakout. The German Yields are coming down. There is room to fall more before the broader upmove resumes. The 10Yr GoI has failed again to sustain the breakout. It can continue to oscillate in a sideways range for some more time.

The US 10Yr (4.316%) and 30Yr (4.919%) Treasury yields have come down failing to breach the resistance at 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr). The 4.2%-4.35% (10Yr) and 4.85%-4.95% (30Yr) range is still intact. The expected bullish breakout and the rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 5.05%-5.1% (30Yr) is getting delayed.

The German 10Yr (2.9945%) and 30Yr (3.5387%) yields are slightly trading in the green. The fall to 2.9% (10Yr) and 3.5%-3.45% (30Yr) can happen first. A fresh rise thereafter will keep the broader bullish outlook intact to see 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65% (30Yr) on the upside eventually.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9365%) failed again to sustain the break above 6.95%. That keeps intact the 6.85%-6.95% range for now. From the weekly candles, it looks like 6.85%-7% can be a wider range of trade

Dow is slipping gradually and can decline towards 49000-48500, while DAX may test 24000 in the near term. Nifty remains vulnerable and needs to hold above 23800 to avoid a deeper fall towards 23600-23400. Nikkei has turned strongly positive after breaking above 60000 and can rise further towards 61000-62000. Shanghai continues to weaken and may test 4000 before any rebound.

Dow (49377, -0.03%) is slipping gradually and can decline towards 49000-48500 in the near term.

DAX (24371, +0.44%) fell and closed lower at 24265 on Friday. Today it has moved up but can test 24000 in the near term.

Nifty (23,897.95, -1.14%) dipped to a low of 23813 on Friday, as anticipated. It needs to hold above 23800 to move higher towards 24000, otherwise a fall towards 23600-23400 cannot be ruled out.

Nikkei (60685, +1.03%) has broken above 60000 as expected and can now move higher towards 61000-62000.

Shanghai (4073.58, -0.17%) is falling gradually and can soon test 4000 in the coming sessions before any bounce back takes place.

Crude prices remain firm but highly volatile amid continued Middle East uncertainty. Brent can rise towards $ 110-$ 115, while WTI may test $ 100 in the near term. Precious metals may see further correction first, with Gold likely to dip towards $ 4600 and Silver towards $ 70 before any bounce back. Copper remains positive above $ 5.80 and can rise towards $ 6.15-$ 6.20. Natural Gas may continue to trade within the $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for now.

Brent ($ 107.00) is moving up in line with our expectations and can rise towards $ 110-$ 115 in the near term. The direction remains unclear as the market is highly volatile due to uncertainty in the Middle East.

WTI ($ 95.78) dipped on Friday but can rise to test $ 100 in the near term. The direction remains unclear due to ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold ($ 4714) can decline towards $ 4600 in the coming sessions before a bounce back is seen.

Silver ($ 75.37) can decline towards $ 70 in the near term, from where a bounce back can be seen.

Copper ($ 6.05) can rise towards $ 6.15-$ 6.20 while above $ 5.80.

Natural Gas ($ 2.6980) can trade within a $ 2.80-$ 2.55 range for some time.

GMT 23:30 IST 23:30 JP Unemp
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GMT 3:00 IST 08:30 BOJ Meeting
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GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN IIP
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GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
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GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
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DATA LAST FRIDAY
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GMT 23:01 IST 04:31 UK Cons Conf
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GMT 23:30 IST 05:00 JP CPI
…Market 1.7 …Previous 1.26

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
…Market 84.8 …Previous 86.4

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
…Market 85.5 …Previous 86.7

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
…Market 83.9 …Previous 86.0