The Dollar Index has rebounded yet again, moving above 99.00 and dragging the Euro below 1.16. USDJPY can attempt to test 160-161 before a reversal is seen from there. For now, the view is bullish above 158. Aussie and Pound have declined back after a brief bounce seen earlier. Both currencies are headed towards 0.70 and 1.33, respectively, from where a bounce can be expected. The EURJPY can trade within the 185-184 region. EURINR may trade within 112.50-111.50, while USDCNY could fluctuate within the 6.79-6.83 region for the rest of the week and the next. USDINR has scope to rise to 97 if it sustains trade above 96.50.

Dollar Index (99.39) limited its dip to 98.90 and has bounced back sharply, not extending the fall to 98.50 or lower. A break above 99.50, if seen, can trigger a rise to our earlier expected levels of 100. Else if 99.50 holds, a trade between 99.50-98.50 can be seen for the near term.

EURUSD (1.1595) has fallen below 1.16, negating a possible rise to 1.17/1.1750 and reinforcing our earlier expected view of a decline towards 1.1550 or lower on Dollar strength. The overall view is bearish while below 1.16.

EURINR (112.2923) is headed towards 112.50 while above 111.70.

EURJPY (184.39) could dip to 184 and remain within the 185-184 region. Thereafter, a sustained break below 184, if seen, can take the price towards 183-182.40 eventually. For the pair to regain upside momentum, a clear breakout above 185.50 is necessary.

Dollar-Yen (159.03) has paused near 159.25 and dipped a bit. We may expect a test of 160 or higher before a sharp reversal is seen. The overall view is bullish above 158.

USDCNY (6.8142) has been fluctuating over the past few sessions and could trade within the broad 6.79 and 6.83 region doe sometime unless a breakout is seen on either side of the mentioned range.

Aussie (0.7098) has fallen again sharply as the bounce back seen was very limited. View is bearish towards 0.70 from where a bounce back is expected back towards 0.71 or higher.

Pound (1.3386) has also turned down, limiting its rise to 1.35. A range of 1.35-1.33 can be seen in the near term before a decisive breakout is seen on either side of the range.

USDINR (96.5425) , after closing at 96.5425 on the OTC rallied to 96.82 on the NDF markets yesterday before sharply coming off from there later. Chances of rising towards 96.80-97.00 look high if the pair sustains above 96.50. A sustained decline below 96.50 would call for a near term peak-out. Watch price action near 96.50.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have risen back very well. The Treasury yields are holding well above their support. That keeps our broader bullish view intact. The yields can rise more. The German yields can also rise further if they get a strong follow-through rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has dipped. But bias remains positive to see more rise. Supports are there to limit the downside if it dips further.

The US 10Yr (4.67%) and 30Yr (5.19%) Treasury yields have risen back. That keeps intact our bullish view of seeing 4.95%-5% (10Yr) and 5.35%-5.4% (30Yr). Support is at 4.55% (10Yr) and 5.10% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (3.19%) and 30Yr (3.70%) yields have bounced back well from their support. The 10Yr can rise to 3.3% if it sustains above 3.15%. The 30Yr can rise to 3.85%-3.9% on a break above 3.7%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1101) has dipped. But bias remains positive to break 7.15% and rise to 7.25%. Any dip can be limited to 7.05%.

Equities broadly remain weak and slightly mixed. The Dow Jones can come down towards the lower end of its 48700-50200 range. DAX looks mixed after it failed to sustain the intraday rise yesterday. It can go either way from here. Nikkei is coming down towards 59000 in line with our expectation. Shanghai has risen above its resistance and can rise further if it sustains higher. However, a rise above 4200 is needed to turn the big picture bullish. Nifty is struggling to breach 23800 which is necessarily needed to go up. Else the danger of falling back to 23300-23000 will still be there.

Dow (49363.88, -0.65%) has failed to get a follow-through rise. It can come down towards the lower end of its 48700-50200 range. The danger of an extended fall to 48000 and lower needs to be watched closely.

DAX (24400.65, +0.38%) failed to sustain the break above 24600. Immediate picture looks mixed. Has equal chances to either rise to 25000-25200 or fall to 24000-23800.

Nifty (23618, -0.14%) is struggling to breach 23800 which keeps alive the danger of falling back to 23300-23000. A strong rise above 23800 is needed to negate this fall and go up to 24000 and higher.

Nikkei (59736.18, -1.35%) has declined below 60500 and is coming down to 59000 in line with our expectation.

Shanghai (4162.15, 0.17%) has risen well above 4150. If this sustains, a rise to 4200 is possible. But ideally a rise above 4200 is needed to get a sustained rise and become convincingly bullish.

Crude prices have risen back and could be headed towards $ 115/120 soon while precious metals have tanked and could be headed towards $ 4400 (Gold) and $ 70 (Silver). Copper has dipped too and can test $ 6, while there is a slight rise in the Natural Gas prices above $ 3 and can rise in the near term targeting $ 3.25.

Brent ($ 111.31) and WTI ($ 104.20) have bounced back again as there has been no clear conclusion to the Middle East conflict and the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain closed. We may account for higher crude prices towards $ 115/120 in the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 4469.80) and Silver ($ 73.55) have reversed back after attempting a brief rise yesterday. The prices are looking bearish now and headed towards $ 4400 and $ 70 respectively.

Copper ($ 6.16) has declined back below 6.20 and can test 6.00 soon if the dip continues to hold.

Natural Gas ($ 3.1050) could test $ 3.25. Thereafter, a sustained rise above $ 3.25 will be further bullish for the price towards $ 3.50 or higher.

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
2.75 …Market 3.00 …Previous 3.30

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
4.06 …Market 3.00 …Previous 3.04

DATA YESTERDAY
==============
GMT 23:50 IST 05:20 JP GDP
…Market 0.4% …Previous 0.3%

GMT 6:00 IST 11:30 UK Unemp
5.17 …Market 4.90 …Previous 4.90

{GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
…Previous 2.32