With the US markets closed yesterday, there have been little movements in global currencies as most of them remain ranged. Optimism around the peace deal between the US and Iran has triggered near term strength in major currencies against the US Dollar. The Dollar Index may dip towards 98.50/98 or lower in the near term with the Euro likely to move up while above 1.16. Aussie, Pound, Yuan and Rupee have strengthened too and could test 0.7250/0.73, 1.36/37 and 6.76/75 respectively while USDJPY may trade within 160-158 region. EURJPY can face rejection from 185 and dip towards 183/182 else needs a sustained rise above 185 to rally higher. USDINR tested 95.1075 as expected. While above 95 we may see a decent rise towards 95.50. A break below 95 is needed for 94.80/50 to come into the picture.

Dollar Index (99.07) is trading near 99 on optimism around the US-Iran deal coming to a closure soon. However, comments around the progress of the deal may keep volatility intact. Positive comments would favor a decline towards 98.50-98 or lower for the next couple of weeks.

EURUSD (1.1633) is holding above 1.16 just now but has fair scope for a rise from here if the Dollar index tanks sharply below 99.

EURINR (110.9352) could be headed towards110.50 as mentioned yesterday.

EURJPY (184.92)    has been stable. It is hovering near 185 which is an important resistance in the very near term. A sustained break above 185 is necessary for an upmove towards 187-188 else a decline from 185 can take it down to 182 soon.

Dollar-Yen (158.96) has scope to test 160-161before facing a rejection from there for the medium term.

USDCNY (6.7848)   is nearing 6.78. A break below 6.78 if seen would trigger a fasster dip to 6.76/75. If the price sustains above 6.78 just now, a bounce back to 6.80/83 can be possible.

Aussie (0.7165) is likely to fluctuate within the broad 0.73-0.71 region for the next 2-3 weeks.

Pound (1.3486) may head toward the upper end of the 1.35-1.33 range. A break above 1.35, if seen can take it further up towards 1.37 else we may expect a dip back to 1.34/33 later.

USDINR (95.24) tested 95.1075 in line with our expectations of seeing a dip towards 95. While 95 holds, a decent rise towards 95.50 can again come into the picture. Positive peace deal between US and Iran and a weak US dollar of seen can trigger further decline in USDINR towards 94.80/94.50 Till then we may expect 95 to hold as immediate support.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have declined sharply. Increased hopes that the US-Iran are coming close for a deal has dragged the Oil price lower. That in turn has pulled down the yields. The US and the German Yields can fall some more from here and test their support. We expect both of them to sustain above their support and rise back eventually. The 10Yr GoI is coming down within its range. If it breaks the range of the downside following the sharp fall in the global yields, then it can fall more. In that case, the expected rise will get delayed.

The US 10Yr (4.5%) and 30Yr (5.03%) Treasury yields have come down sharply. The fall to 4.5%-4.45% (10Yr) and 5%-4.95% (30Yr) is happening much faster that expected. We expect the yields to rise back from this support zone.

The German 10Yr (2.94%) and 30Yr (3.5%) yields have come down to 2.95% and 3.5% respectively much faster than expected. An extended fall to 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr) is a possibility. But thereafter we can expect the yields to rise back towards 3.1%-3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.7% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (7.0270) has come down within the 7%-7.15%. If it breaks below 7% following the sharp fall in the global yields, then 6.9% can be seen on the downside. For now, the range is intact.

News that the US and Iran are coming closer to a deal has pushed the equities higher. The Dow was closed yesterday on account of a public holiday. It can rise to 51500-52000. DAX has risen above its intermediate resistance and can now test 26000. Nikkei and Shanghai have dipped in their early trades. Nikkei has support to limit the downside and looks bullish to see more rise. Shanghai on the other hand looks mixed. It has to breach its upcoming resistance to strengthen the bullish case. Else it can fall. Nifty can rise towards 24400-24500.

Dow (50,579.70, +0.58%) continues to move up. Our bullish view remains intact to see 51500-52000. Support will be in the 50400-50300 region.

DAX (25,389.10, +2.01%) has risen above its intermediate resistance level of 25200. While this break sustains, the outlook will be bullish to see 26000 on the upside.

Nifty (24031.70, +1.32%) has risen and closed just above 24000. Support is now in the 23900-23800 region. While that holds, Nifty can rise to 24400-24500.

Nikkei (64925.46, -0.34%) has come-off from the high of 65332. But 64000 will be a good support. While that holds, a further rise to 66000-66500 is possible now.

Shanghai (4119.07, -0.80%) has come down and seems to be losing momentum. It has to rise above 4160 to turn convincingly bullish for a rise to 4250 and higher. Else it can fall back to 4050 or even lower. Wait and watch.

Crude prices trade lower on optimism around the US-Iran peace talks, and if the agreement is finalized, prices can decline further towards $ 95-$ 90 (Brent) and $ 90-$ 85 (WTI), respectively. Gold and Silver have bounced back contrary to expectations, but the broader bearish outlook towards $ 4400 and $ 70 remains intact. Copper has recovered in line with expectations and can rise further towards $ 6.60 while above $ 6.25. Natural Gas is holding well above the key $ 3 support, and could rise towards $ 3.20-$ 3.25 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 98.16) has risen slightly from 97.12 while WTI ($ 91.78) trades lower. As the US-Iran move closer to a peace deal, crude prices have declined. If the dip continues, we may expect a decline below $ 90 in Brent and below $ 85 in WTI soon with some chances of a broad sideways consolidation for the medium term. However, any unfavourable news or comments around the deal may again trigger a rise from current levels.

Gold ($ 4538) and Silver ($ 76.94) have bounced slightly from levels seen yesterday. Given a decent rise in the near term, we cannot fully negate a fall to $ 4400 and $ 70, respectively unless a sustained break above $ 4600 and $ 80 is seen.

Copper ($ 6.40) has scope to rise to $ 6.60 while above $ 6.25.

Natural Gas ($ 3.0590) is trading above $ 3, and can rise towards $ 3.20-$ 3.25 in the coming sessions.

GMT 13:00 IST 18:30 US Case Schiller
0.82 …Previous 0.89

GMT 14:00 IST 19:30 US Cons Conf
95.05 …Previous 92.80

DATA YESTERDAY
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NO MAJOR DATA RELEASED ON YESTERDAY.