Most currencies are stable. Dollar index is holding below 99.50 just now but a decisive break on the upside can take it towards 100-100.50. Euro can test 1.1575 but a break below that will drag it lower towards 1.15/14. EURINR could rise to 111.85-112 soon before facing rejection from there. EURJPY and USDJPY could trade within 185-186 and 159.00-160.50 respectively while USDCNY may rise to test 6.7850 before facing rejection from there. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.72-0.71 and 1.34-1.3550 while USDINR can face rejection near 96 from where a fall back towards 95.75-95.50 can be possible.

Dollar Index (99.406) needs to see a decisive break above 99.50, to rise towards the upper resistance of 100-100.50.

EURUSD (1.1615) could extend its dip to 1.1575 but a break below that could bring in 1.15-1.14 again into the picture.

EURINR (111.2727) has scope to test 111.85-112 soon before pausing for a reversal.

EURJPY (185.75) has been mostly stable yesterday. A decisive breakout on either side of the 185-186 region is needed to decide the future course of direction. A decline below 185, if seen, can lead to a fall towards 184/183.

Dollar-Yen (159.96) has been slowly inching higher day by day. There is scope for a rise to 160.50-161 before coming off from there towards 159 in the medium term.

USDCNY (6.7752) tested 6.7775 but is trading slightly lower just now. It can face decent resistance near 6.7850 from where a dip looks possible towards 6.77/76 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.7119) fell sharply to 0.71 but has managed to bounce back from there. While it holds above 0.71, there can be scope to rise towards the upper end of the 0.71-0.72 range.

Pound (1.3424) tested 1.3415 before bouncing back from there. It has decent support near 1.34/1.3360, which can be tested before a bounce back towards 1.35-1.3550 is seen in the medium term.

USDINR (95.79) was almost stable yesterday, trading within the 95.59-95.79 region. Near term resistance is seen at 96 from where a rejection can be possible towards 95.50-95.00. Else, failure to hold below 96 would prove to be bullish towards 96.50-97 in the medium term.

The US Treasury Yields seem to be struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. That keeps alive the danger of seeing an extended fall breaking below their support. We will have to wait and see. The unemployment numbers today will need a close watch, and it may give some cue for the yields to move either way. The German Yields are managing to sustain higher after the recent bounce. But they have to rise further from here to go higher and avoid falling back again. The 10Yr GoI has dipped below 7%. That keeps the door open to see one more leg of fall before reversing higher. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome is due today.

The US 10Yr (4.47%) and 30Yr (4.97%) Treasury yields seem to be lacking momentum to go further higher. That keeps alive the danger of breaking below 4.45% (10Yr) and 4.95% (30Yr) and falling to 4.35% (10Yr) and 4.85% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (3.02%) and 30Yr (3.56%) yields manage to hold higher. They need a strong follow-through rise from here to avoid falling back to 2.9%-2.85% (10Yr) and 3.45% (30Yr). Only then the rise to 3.1%-3.2% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.7% (30Yr) will come into the picture.

The 10Yr GoI (6.9931%) has dipped below 7%. That keeps alive the chances of the fall to 6.9%. We reiterate that a sustained rise above 7.05% is needed to negate this fall.

Global equities remain mixed, with Dow rebounding sharply on ceasefire-related optimism and likely to test 52000 in the near term. DAX remains weak below 25000 and can decline further towards 24500-24000. Nifty continues to hold above 23,300 and can extend gains towards 23,600. Nikkei has slipped below 67000 and risks a further decline towards 66000-65000 if the weakness persists. Shanghai is holding above key support near 4050 and can bounce towards 4100-4125 while this support remains intact.

Dow (51591, -0.15%) failed to break below 50500 and has bounced back sharply to 51752 on news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, which could potentially lead to a deal between the US and Iran. It can test 52000 in the near term, but thereafter it remains to be seen whether it breaks above this level and moves higher or falls back from there.

DAX (24856, -0.26%) has risen but remains below 25000. While below this level, a further decline towards 24500-24000 looks likely in the coming weeks.

Nifty (23,416.55, +0.05%) moved higher as expected and tested a high of 23,465 before closing yesterday. While it remains above 23,300, the rise may extend towards 23,600 in the coming week.

Nikkei (66770.46, -1.80%) has fallen below 67000, and if the weakness sustains, a further decline towards 66000-65000 can be seen.

Shanghai (4059.22, +0.08%) is holding above 4050, and while this level remains intact, a bounce back towards 4100-4125 can be seen.

Crude prices have fallen sharply on hopes of easing geopolitical tensions, but with uncertainty over the ceasefire’s durability, the broader outlook remains positive for a rise towards $ 100 in the coming weeks. Gold and Silver continue to weaken towards the lower end of their respective $ 4400-$ 4600 and $ 70-$ 80 ranges. Copper is holding above key support near $ 6.40, and a rebound towards $ 6.70 or higher remains possible if this level holds. Natural Gas has strengthened in line with expectations and can rise further towards $ 3.50 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 95.83) and WTI ($ 93.39) have retreated sharply amid hopes that the announced ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon could lead to a US-Iran peace plan and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the chances of the ceasefire holding remain thin, and hence we retain our view of a rise towards $ 100 in the coming weeks.

Gold ($ 4469.50) and Silver ($ 72.78) continue to decline towards the lower end of the mentioned ranges. The earlier stated broad ranges of $ 4400-$ 4600 and $ 70-$ 80 respectively can hold for some time.

Copper ($ 6.44) is holding support near $ 6.40. If this level holds, a bounce back towards $ 6.70 or higher is possible. Otherwise, the risk of a further decline remains.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3370) has moved above $ 3.30 in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 3.50 in the coming sessions.

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
…Market 5.25 …Previous 5.25

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
…Previous 3.35

GMT 4:30 IST 10:00 RBI MSF
…Previous 5.50

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU GDP
…Market 0.1 …Previous 0.1

GMT 12:00 IST 17:30 IN GDP
7.7% …Previous 7.8%

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US NFP
76 …Market 95 …Previous 115

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
…Market 4.3 …Previous 4.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
0.4 …Market 0.3 …Previous 0.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
…Previous 0.3

GMT 0:30 IST 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
…Market -1.61 …Previous -1.024 …Actual 1.791

GMT 6:30 IST 12:00 CH CPI
…Market 0.30 …Previous 0.60 …Actual 0.62

{GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Retail Sales
-0.14 …Market -0.30 …Previous -0.10 …Actual -0.38