The Dollar index has dipped below 101.50 while Euro has moved up a bit and can re-test 1.14. But whether it would break higher and sustain needs to be seen. EURINR is holding well above 107 and needs to rise back above 108 to rise further. EURJPY has also risen well from 183. The rise of continues can take it slowly towards 184-185 or higher. USDJPY may hold between 162-161 in the near term. USDCNY, if breaks above 6.80 can move up towards 6.83/85. Aussie is expected to rise from current levels while Pound needs to bounce from 1.32 to avoid further decline from here. USDINR may cap it’s upside to 95/95.10 while a fall to 94.05-93.85 is likely on a break below 94.15.

Dollar Index (101.37) has dipped slightly. It is trading below crucial levels of 101.50, a decisive break above which will take it eventually higher or a rejection will be bearish dragging the price back towards 101-100 or lower.

EURUSD (1.1385) is trading well above 1.13 and needs to move back above 1.14 to prevent itself from falling further. Watch price action near 1.14.

EURINR (107.5530) has held above 107 and seems to be bouncing back towards 108 now. Unless a break above 108 is seen, there can be chances of re-testing 107 again in the medium term.

EURJPY (184.20) has bounced well from 183 and if the rise continues , we may soon see levels of 185+ again in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (161.76) continues to trade in the 161-162 region and may hold so for the near term.

USDCNY (6.7988)   has risen well as expected. A break above 6.80, if seen can take it further up towards 6.83/85.

Aussie (0.6889) is currently trading below 0.69 but may soon bounce back towards 0.69 or higher. Failure to rise back above 0.69 would take it down to 0.68 before a reversal is seen.

Pound (1.3206) is trading at important support level. A bounce or decline from here will set further course of direction for the pound in the near term either towards 1.33/35 or towards 1.31/30. 

USDINR (94.30) has scope to test 94.05-93.85 in the near term. But for that it needs to break below it’s immediate support at 94.15. Watch price action in the near term. Immediate upside is likely to be capped near 95.10.

The US Treasury Yields have declined sharply and are trading below their support. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them lower in the coming days. The German Yields have come down as expected and are at their support. An extended fall looks likely before a sustained reversal is seen. The 10Yr GoI has declined below our expected levels. There is support near current levels. We can expect the yield to bounce back. We will have to wait and watch.

The US 10Yr (4.38%) and 30Yr (4.87%) have come down below 4.45% and 4.9% respectively. While they sustain below these levels, a further fall to 4.3% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) is possible. Thereafter the yields can bounce back again.

The German 10Yr (2.85%) and 30Yr (3.41%) have come down to 2.85% and 3.4% respectively as expected. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them to 2.75% (10Yr) and 3.35% (30Yr) from here.

The 10Yr GoI (6.7690%) has declined below 6.8%. Support is at 6.75%. A bounce from there and a rise above 6.8% can give some relief and take it up to 6.9%.

Dow remains below the key 53000 resistance and is vulnerable to a decline towards 51000-50000 unless it breaks higher. DAX also remains weak below 25500 and can decline further towards 24500-24250. Nifty needs to hold above 24000 to keep the recovery towards 24200-24400 alive. Nikkei and Shanghai have corrected sharply and can test supports near 68000-67500 and 4000-3950 respectively before a bounce back is seen.

Dow (52359.13, +0.30%) is trading below the immediate resistance near 53000. While below this level, a decline towards 51000-50000 can be seen. However, a sustained break above 53000 would trigger a further rise towards 53500-54000.

DAX (24918.21, +0.33%) can decline towards 24500-24250 in the near term while it remains below 25500.

Nifty (24,056.00, +0.14%) attempted to break above 24200 but failed to sustain the gains and closed lower. It needs to hold above 24000 to maintain the bullish recovery momentum towards 24200-24400. Only a decisive break below 24000 would open the downside towards 23800-23700.

Nikkei (69265.44, -0.77%) has fallen sharply back to levels near 69000, contrary to our expectations. Immediate support near 68000-67500 can be tested in the near term before a bounce back is seen.

Shanghai (4026.43, -0.03%) has fallen back sharply, contrary to our expectations, and can test the support zone near 4000-3950 before a bounce back takes place.

Brent and WTI remain weak and can test $ 70 and $ 65 respectively before a corrective bounce back is seen. Gold has rebounded after holding above the key $ 4000 support and can rise towards $ 4100-$ 4150. Silver has bounced from support near $ 55 and can extend its recovery towards $ 65-$ 70. Copper has also recovered after holding above $ 5.90 and can rise further towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30. Natural Gas continues to trade within the broader $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range.

Brent ($ 72.35) can decline further to test $ 70 in the near term before a bounce back is seen.

WTI ($ 69.89) remains weak and can decline further towards $ 65 in the near term before a bounce back takes place.

Gold ($ 4073.30) has bounced back from levels near $ 4000 as it failed to sustain below this level. While above $ 4000, a rise towards $ 4100-$ 4150 can be seen.

Silver ($ 59.12) has bounced back to levels near $ 60 after the support near $ 55 held, in line with our expectations. A further rise towards $ 65-$ 70 can be seen in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.19) has bounced back from levels near $ 5.95 as it failed to sustain below $ 6.00. While above $ 5.90, a further rise towards $ 6.25-$ 6.30 can be seen in the near term.

Natural Gas ($ 3.3060) is inching higher and can continue to trade within the broad $ 3.00-$ 3.50 range for some time.

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU Biz Climate
…Previous 93.50

DATA YESTERDAY
==============
GMT 1:30 IST 07:00 Australia Labour Force
…Market 30.3 …Previous -40.7 …Actual 40.3

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Personal Income
0.12 …Market 0.40 …Previous 0.00

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
…Market 0.30 …Previous 0.40

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Core PCE
0.4 …Market 0.3 …Previous 0.2

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
…Market -4.90 …Previous 7.95

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US GDP
1.79 …Market 1.60 …Previous 1.61