Dollar Index is recovering towards 101, pressuring EURUSD towards 1.14/1.1370. EURINR holds below 111, while USDJPY stays bullish above 161.50 to target 163/165. EURJPY needs a break past interim resistance at 186.32 to rise towards 188 while USDCNY needs to hold above 6.77 for 6.78-6.7850. Aussie and Pound look weak while below 0.70 and 1.3550 while USDINR may face resistance near 96.50-96.75.

Dollar Index (100.739) is recovering slowly towards 101 after the recent dip on softer US CPI and PPI figures for Jun-26. This has led the EURUSD (1.1441) to start declining towards 1.14/1.1370 in the coming days.

EURINR (110.3059) seems to be holding below 111 for now but any break above 111, if seen, would open up chances of a further rally towards 112-112.75 region. Such a rise can be possible if USDINR continues to rise in the coming days while EURO remains below 1.1470.

Dollar-Yen (162.45) has gained momentum again in line with the rise in the Dollar Index. There is scope for a test of 163/165 on the USDJPY for the near term before we see any correction from there. Overall view remains bullish above 161.50.

EURJPY (185.86) can be pushed higher if the USDJPY continues to rise in the near term. Interim resistance is seen near 186.32, a break above which can trigger a rise targeting 188 in the medium term.

USDCNY (6.7741) has been rising over the past 3-sessions. The pair needs to remain above 6.77 to rise further towards 6.78-6.7850 region by early next week.

Aussie (0.6983) has started to decline from resistance near 0.70 and can see a slow fall to 0.69 in the next few sessions while Pound (1.3465) also seems to be holding below 1.3550 and has scope to test 1.34/3350 in the coming days.

USDINR (96.3350) is rising as expected. The spot can face rejection near 96.50-96.75 region, from where a correction can be seen in the next 1-2 weeks.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower and stable. Support can limit the downside and keep the upside open to see more rise going forward. The German Yields have inched up. The bullish view remains intact. They can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has dipped further. Failure to rise back immediately can drag it lower from here.

The US 10Yr (4.56%) and 30Yr (5.09%) yields remain lower but stable. We reiterate that the support at 4.5% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) can limit the downside and keep the upside open for a rise to 4.7%-4.8% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (3.13%) and 30Yr (3.6%) Yields have inched up. The bullish view of seeing a rise to 3.2% (10Yr) and 3.75% (30Yr) remains intact. Support is at 3%-2.98% (10Yr) and 3.55% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (6.7478%) has dipped below 6.75%. Failure to rise back immediately can drag it down to 6.7% initially and then to 6.6% eventually.

Dow and DAX are likely to stay within the 52000-53000 and 24800-25500 ranges respectively. Nifty continues to hold above 24000, but a break below this level could drag it towards 23800, keeping the broader 23800-24400 range intact. Nikkei has turned sharply weaker and can decline further towards 62000-60000. Shanghai has broken below 3900 and can extend its decline towards 3800 before a possible rebound.

Dow (52509.66, -0.52%) is declining in line with our expectations and can continue to trade within the broad range of 52000-53000 for some time.

DAX (24849.79, -0.51%) is testing the support near 24800. If this level holds, our earlier mentioned range of 24800-25500 could remain intact for some time.

Nifty (24,072.15, -0.02%) dipped lower but closed above 24000. A decisive break below 24000 could drag the index towards 23800 over the next week, keeping the broader 23800-24400 range intact.

Nikkei (64215.89, -2.82%) has plunged to a low of 64185, exceeding our expectation of a decline towards 66000. A further fall towards 62000-60000 can be seen in the near term.

Shanghai (3842.68, -1.02%) has fallen below 3900 in line with our expectations and can decline further towards 3800, from where a bounce back can be seen.

Brent and WTI can rise further towards $ 90 and $ 85 respectively. Gold is testing the crucial $ 4000 support, and a sustained break below this level could trigger a decline towards $ 3800-$ 3600. Silver is likely to remain range-bound between $ 55 and $ 65. Copper could find support near $ 6.00 and recover towards $ 6.50. Natural Gas remains weak and can decline further towards $ 2.85-$ 2.80.

Brent ($ 85.12) and WTI ($ 79.23) have dipped but can rise further towards $ 90 and $ 85 respectively in the coming sessions.

Gold ($ 3992.70) is attempting to break below the key support at $ 4000. A sustained break below this level would trigger a further decline towards $ 3800-$ 3600.

Silver ($ 55.42) has fallen to the lower end of the previously mentioned range and could continue to trade within the broad $ 55-$ 65 range for some time.

Copper ($ 6.25) has pulled back sharply from the high of $ 6.42 but could find support near $ 6.00 and bounce back towards $ 6.50.

Natural Gas ($ 2.8890) remains vulnerable to a further decline towards our earlier mentioned target of $ 2.85-$ 2.80 in the near term.

GMT 9:00 IST 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
…Expected 2.8 % …Previous 2.8%

GMT 12:30 IST 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1390K …Expected 1320K …Previous 1177K

GMT 13:15IST 18:45 US Industrial Production
EXpn -0.08 % …Expected 0.20 % …Previous 0.10 %

GMT 13:15 IST 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 75.99% …Expected 76.20% …Previous 76.20%

DATA YESTERDAY
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UK Trade Bal
…Ksht Expn-22.11 GBP(bln)…Expected -22.80 (GBPbln) …Previous -24.58 (GBP bln) …Actual-18.66 GBP(BLn)

UK GDP
…Expected -0.30% …Previous 0.10% …Actual 0.10%

EU Trade Bal
…Expected 2.8(Eur bln) …Previous 0.8(Eurbln) Actual-5.8(Eurbln)

US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 1.0% Actual 0.2%

US Philifed Index
Expn.8.6 Expected 12.1…Previous 10.3 Actual 41.4