The near-term currency outlook is mixed but dollar-sensitive: the Dollar Index looks headed towards 99.40, EURUSD remains capped below 1.17, and Dollar-Yen may stay in the 159–160 range with downside risk below 159. EURINR and EURJPY look soft in the immediate term, while USDCNY could fall toward 6.70 on a break below 6.72. Aussie remains positive above 0.72, while Pound has declined below resistance near 1.37. USDINR could ease toward 95.30–95 if crude prices continue to decline.

Dollar Index (99.122) trades above 99 again today and is likely to test 99.40 in the next 1-2 sessions. Thereafter, it can either rally towards 100 or higher or collapse again towards the 99-98 region.

EURUSD (1.1657) is trading around 1.1650. We expect the near-term range to be stable below 1.17.

Dollar-Yen (159.23) trades slightly higher today. We may expect near-term trade within the 159-160 region with some chances of a break below 159 still intact.

EURINR (111.233) can dip to 111-110.50 before bouncing back from there again. Immediate view is bearish.

EURJPY (185.63) could trade below 186 for a few sessions. A decisive break above 186 thereafter is necessary for the pair to rise towards 187/188 in the longer run.

USDCNY (6.7211) looks stable around 6.72, a break below which would trigger a fall to 6.70.

Aussie (0.7183) is headed towards 0.72, a break above which can take it higher towards 0.73 in the longer run, while Pound (1.3592) has declined exactly as expected and could test 1.3550-1.35 before attempting to rise again in the medium term. For now, 1.37 can act as near-term resistance.

USDINR (95.4020) was closed yesterday for Eir-e-Milad. Today the spot can open lower, especially due to the decline in crude prices seen in the last few sessions. If crude prices continue to decline, USDINR can fall towards the 95.30-95 region, with 95 being a crucial support in the near term.

The US Treasury Yields have bounced back. The downside is limited with strong support. The broader picture is bullish. A consolidation is happening for now. Ideally, we expect a bullish breakout of this consolidation and a fresh rise going forward. The US PCE has dipped slightly to 3.7% (YoY) in July from 3.73% in June. This did not have a major impact on the yield movement. The German Yields are inching up again. But the downside is still open to test their support before a sustained rise happens. The 10Yr GoI was closed yesterday. It is currently stuck in a narrow range. There is a chance of seeing some rise from here before the broader downtrend resumes.

The US 10Yr (4.66%) and 30Yr (5.18%) yields have inched up. The 10Yr retains its 4.59%-4.75% range. Ideally, we look for a bullish breakout and a rise to 4.8% and even 5%. The 30Y can rise to 5.4% while above the 5.15%-5.1% support zone.

The German 10Yr (3.23%) and 30Yr (3.74%) Yields have bounced back. However, the downside is still open to see 3.15%-3.1% (10Yr) and 3.65%-3.6% before the broader upmove resumes.

The 10Yr GoI (6.8488%) was closed yesterday. It is currently stuck in a narrow range. 6.8%-6.9%/6.95% can be the broad trading range. Within that the chances of a rise in the short-term is still possible before the broader downtrend resumes.

Global equities remain broadly positive. Dow continues to strengthen and can rise towards 54000, while DAX needs a sustained break above 26500 to extend gains towards 26750-27000. Nifty has weakened after failing to sustain above 24300 but remains constructive above 24100, with scope for a bounce towards 24400-24500. Nikkei has surged above 67000 and can rise towards 67500-68000. Shanghai also remains positive above 3850 and can advance towards 4000 in the coming sessions.

Dow (53793.48, +0.51%) continues to move higher in line with our expectations and can rise further towards 54000 in the coming sessions.

DAX (26347.72, +0.12%) tested a high of 26513 yesterday, in line with our expectations. A sustained break above 26500 is needed to extend the rally towards 26750-27000.

Nifty (24,334.55, +0.48%) opened near 24300 but fell sharply from there to close lower near 24200. Immediate support is seen near 24150-24100. While this support holds, our view remains intact for a bounce back towards 24400-24500.

Nikkei (67110.62, +1.72%) has surged above 67000 in line with our expectations and can move higher towards 67500-68000 in the coming sessions.

Shanghai (3912.52, +0.59%) can rise further towards 4000 in the coming sessions while above 3850.

Brent and WTI have bounced back from recent lows, while their broader ranges of $ 80-$ 95 and $ 75-$ 90 respectively can hold for some time. Gold and Silver have dipped but remain bullish, with Gold targeting $ 4750-$ 4800 and Silver likely to break above $ 70 towards $ 72-$ 75. Copper has reversed sharply from near $ 6.80 and remains vulnerable to a decline towards $ 6.55-$ 6.50 while below this resistance. Natural Gas remains strong above $ 2.90 and can rise further towards $ 3.00 in the coming sessions.

Brent ($ 87.46) and WTI ($ 81.84) have bounced back from lows of $ 85.61 and $ 79.62 respectively. The earlier mentioned ranges of $ 80-$ 95 and $ 75-$ 90 respectively can hold for some time.

Gold ($ 4664.10) has dipped, but our view remains intact for a rise towards $ 4750-$ 4800 in the near term.

Silver ($ 68.77) has fallen, but our view remains intact for a break above $ 70 and a move higher towards $ 72-$ 75 in the near term.

Copper ($ 6.62) has taken a sharp reversal to $ 6.60 after testing a high of $ 6.78 yesterday, as cautioned earlier. The resistance near $ 6.80 remains crucial, and while below this level, a further decline towards $ 6.55-$ 6.50 can be seen.

Natural Gas ($ 2.91) has risen above $ 2.90 in line with our expectations and can rise further towards $ 3.00 in the coming sessions.

No major data release today.

DATA YESTERDAY:-
—————-
US Personal Income
Expn. 0.7 % …Expected 0.2 % …Previous 0.2 % …Actual 0.4%

US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.1 % …Expected 0.2 % …Previous 0.3 % …Actual 0.2%

US Core PCE
Expn. 0.3 % …Expected 0.2 % …Previous 0.1 % …Actual 0.2%

US Durable Goods Orders
Exp. 0.2 % …Expected 0.4 % …Previous 0.5 % …Actual 1.1%

US GDP
Expn. 1.5 % …Expected 1.5 % …Previous 1.5 %…Actual1.5 %